Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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493
FXUS64 KMAF 062246
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas radars show widespread convection invof eastern terminals,
but this activity is on the wane w/loss of diurnal heating.
However, a cold front moving thru the Texas Panhandle is expected
to fire things up again overnight, and TAFs will be further
updated for convection as warranted. Forecast soundings develop
stratus over the east overnight, w/IFR cigs expected at KMAF/KHOB,
and MVFR at KCNM as the front arrives there.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over S TX this morning will shift westward
across Mexico.  A broad upper ridge will remain across the southern
tier of states Tuesday as an upper low moves ashore the West Coast.
This low will slowly wobble eastward before lifting northward.
However in the mean time conditions are coming together with the
potential for a heavy rain event.

A weak cold front should move down into the area tonight and slowly
sag southward.  The front looks to hang up over the area early
Tuesday but may bridge southward as surface ridge pushes southward.
This means much of the area may not see a strong passage but the
wind may slowly come around to the east.

There is a heavy rain potential... there is good low level moisture
with dewpts in the 60s and even into low 70s south and east.  MAF
12z sounding had a PW of 1.57 inches and model soundings show high
PW will continue through Tuesday.  By noon storms had developed over
the Davis Mountains and these have spread east across the Trans
Pecos.  This is the location with the stronger theta-e axis.  Based
on model qpf this precip may expand north ward through the late
afternoon.  Additional rain should begin tonight mainly out west and
then spread eastward across the area as the front moves south.
Spent a long time considering a flash flood watch for tonight or
Tuesday but decided at least for tonight the heaviest rain should be
north of the area so will not issue.  Lea County and the Northern
Permian Basin will be closest to the area of concern for flash
flooding tonight... but should only get brushed with the heavier
rain.  However for tomorrow the potential still exists for heavy
rain over the eastern Permian Basin as a decent shortwave arrives
and provides upper support for heavy rain.  Do have mention of heavy
rain in forecast for northern CWA tonight and eastern CWA Tuesday
and will continue to highlight flash flood potential in the HWO.  A
Flash Flood Watch could still be needed Tuesday for the Eastern
Permian Basin but need to see how rain develops tonight.  Some rain
may linger into Wednesday but then after that pops should be on the
decrease and mainly confined to the higher elevations.

Temperatures are being affected by the increased moisture/cloud
cover as overnight lows are remaining much higher.  Tuesday should
be cooler with the weak front... but it could turn out much cooler
if it stays rainy/cloudy all day.  Will go below guidance Tuesday
and may still not be low enough.  Temperatures will slowly climb
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
458
FXUS64 KMAF 061733
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Several weak upper level disturbances will combine with a
southward moving cold front to produce scattered thunderstorms
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next 24 hours.
Confidence was high enough to include TEMPO and or PROB30 groups
at the terminals for thunderstorms. For now will keep conditions
in the VFR range, but will monitor. Cold front will result in a
wind shift and breezy north winds after 06z tonight at KCNM and
KHOB.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

There may be a period of MVFR ceilings at KMAF, but otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail.  Thunderstorms could affect all terminals
this afternoon and evening, id not beyond.  Will carry TSRA and
brief MVFR visibility in rain at all sites.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain and cooler temperatures are still on track to affect the
area over the next few days.

The upper ridge that was persistent over the area last week has now
flattened out across northern Mexico this morning. A theta-e axis
that led to widespread showers and thunderstorms west of the Pecos
River Sunday will expand east into the Permian Basin this
afternoon. The majority of the models develop precip across a good
bit of the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will warm well into
the 80s and 90s today and combine with high amounts of moisture to
produce at least moderate instability. The severe weather threat
remains low, but a damaging wind gust can`t be ruled out. Heavy
rain will be a bigger concern due to slow storm motions and PWATs
climbing to near 2SD above normal. This threat will increase
overnight and Tuesday as a cold front slowly moves south into the
region. Upper level support will arrive later tonight as a
shortwave crosses the TX Panhandle. Northern portions of SE NM and
the northern Permian Basin look to see the best shot at heavy rain
and flooding. Will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now, but
one may need to be issued later today.

Temperatures look fairly cool for early July on Tuesday if
widespread clouds and rain verify. Highs a good 10 degrees below
normal are possible. The front lingers across the area into
Wednesday so the chance of rain and cooler temperatures will
continue. An developing upper ridge over the Southeast will slowly
build west helping to bring drier and warmer conditions late in the
week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29
208
FXUS64 KMAF 051108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KMAF
between 05/12Z and 05/15Z, VFR conditions are expected throughout
the forecast period.  Thunderstorms will develop over the higher
terrain this afternoon and spread slowly east.  All terminals,
except KMAF, could see TSRA after 06/01Z, but the probability is
too low for any site so will forego inclusion this issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Things are all quiet tonight across most of Texas and NM. That
won`t last too long though as a cold front brings good rain
chances and continued below normal temperatures.

The upper ridge that has given us mostly dry conditions over the
last couple of days continues to flatten and sink into northern
Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms developed Saturday afternoon along
a theta-e axis that has set up from the Big Bend north into NM. We
will see a similar set-up today with showers and storms spreading a
little further east, possibly to near the Pecos River by late
afternoon. Plenty of moisture remains in place so heavy rain and
even some localized flooding will be possible, especially in the
mountains. Similar conditions are expected Monday afternoon.

The focus then shifts to a cold front that will enter the TX
Panhandle tomorrow. Thunderstorms will develop along the front
and propel it south into our area Monday night. A few severe
storms are not out of the question, but instability will remain
limited by the time storms arrive. Heavy rain will be of greater
concern though as PWATs climb to +2SD with storm motions of only
10 to 15 kts. The front will remain in the area both Tuesday and
Wednesday so will keep storm chances fairly high. A flash flood
watch may be needed in upcoming forecasts.

The upper ridge is then forecast to strengthen over the area late
this week. If we see widespread heavy rainfall across the Southern
Plains this week, the ridge may not build as strong as the models
indicate.

Even though today and Monday will be the warmer than we have seen in
over a week, temperatures will stay below normal. By Tuesday and
Wednesday, the cold front will make its way into the region with
widespread clouds and rain. Look for temps to be well below normal
during this period. We dry out and warm back up as the ridge builds
later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  74  94  73  /  10  10  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                    94  72  96  71  /  20  30  40  50
DRYDEN TX                      95  73  93  74  /  20  30  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               91  70  93  70  /  20  30  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  67  87  66  /  40  50  30  30
HOBBS NM                       90  68  92  66  /  10  10  40  60
MARFA TX                       86  65  86  66  /  60  40  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        92  72  93  72  /  10  10  30  50
ODESSA TX                      92  73  93  72  /  10  10  30  50
WINK TX                        95  72  97  72  /  10  20  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29
831
FXUS64 KMAF 050451
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals tonight and Sunday,
except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings at KMAF, generally
between 05/12Z and 05/15Z. Thunderstorms will stay west of the
terminals this afternoon, however KCNM, and perhaps KPEQ and
KFST may need TSRA added to the forecast after 06/00Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
962
FXUS64 KMAF 041053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain today,
but should remain south and west of all area terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Increasing rain chances early next week with temperatures staying
mostly below normal for early July.

Morning analysis shows an upper ridge beginning to weaken to our
west and a large scale trough stretched over the eastern U.S. At the
surface, moist flow continues off the Gulf and will eventually help
give us a good chance for rain once a cold front arrives. More on
that later. For the second night in a row we are watching a dying
thunderstorm complex move south out of the TX Panhandle. A few of
these storms may make it into northern Lea Co or the northern
Permian Basin later this morning. More likely to happen, an
outflow boundary from these storms will settle across the
northwestern CWA. This could help spark a few showers and storms
later this afternoon. The better chance for rain today though will
be over the higher terrain associated with a developing theta-e
axis. This axis expands slightly east on Sunday with a better
chance of rain spreading into the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM.

The upper ridge sinks south into northern Mexico Monday while a cold
front enters the TX Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front Monday evening with one or
more complexes moving south across the area overnight into Tuesday
morning. The frontal boundary may linger across the region Tuesday
into Wednesday so will keep a good chance for rain in the
forecast. PWATs will climb over 1.5" and storm motions look fairly
slow so heavy rainfall will be a good possibility. Models show the
upper ridge strengthening over the region by the end of the week.
If we see widespread rainfall this week, the ridge may not build
as strong as indicated.

Temperatures have had a hard time warming too much due to all the
green vegetation across area. Will continue the trend of forecasting
near or below guidance this weekend. Monday through Wednesday will
be tricky due to the possibility of cloudcover and rain. May need to
lower temps even more if we see widespread rainfall. Temperatures
will warm back to near normal by the end of the week as the ridge
builds and the atmosphere begins to dry out.

Have a great holiday and Happy 4th of July from everyone here at
the NWS Midland/Odessa!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  73  92  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    92  70  98  72  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                      92  73  92  73  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  70  92  71  /  10  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              84  67  88  68  /  20  30  40  40
HOBBS NM                       89  67  92  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       87  64  88  66  /  40  30  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        91  71  93  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  71  92  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        93  72  97  73  /  10  10  20  20


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29
888
FXUS64 KMAF 040452
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Independence Day at all
southeast New Mexico terminals.  It appears any thunderstorms will
stay west or southwest of all terminals through the forecast period,
while surface winds remain south/southeast between 10 and 15kt.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
006
FXUS64 KMAF 040003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
703 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain and a few thunderstorms could impact SE New Mexico TAF sites
within the first 3-4 hours of the TAF period this evening, with
brief gusty winds possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the forecast period, with southeast
winds increasing to around 12-15kt by late morning on Saturday. A
MVFR deck may try to develop at KINK, KMAF, and KFST Saturday
morning, though have maintained VFR ceilings with only scattered
MVFR due to lower confidence in this scenario.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Great Basin this morning with an upper
trough extending down through the Mississippi River Valley.  The
ridge axis will slowly shift east becoming centered over Northern
Mexico by Sunday and then retrograding back to the west by early
Tuesday.  This may allow a strong shortwave to come around the east
side of the ridge and down into the area Tuesday.  Upper low off CA
will come ashore by the middle of next week.

Overall have a Summer time wx pattern with little change in the day
to day wx.  Temperatures will remain below normal the next couple of
days with readings warming in the extended.  Will see highs along
the Rio Grande over 100 next week.  Will have to watch a front next
week that may make it into the northern CWA by early Tuesday...
otherwise S to SE flow will continue.  This will help keep low level
moisture elevated.

Models develop a little rain over the western CWA tonight and again
on Saturday from SE NM down across the higher elevations of W TX.
Already have the start of a few storms developing this afternoon in
SE NM.  Other than Lea county expect very little rain east of the
Pecos River.  Will continue low pops already in the forecast.  MAF
12z sounding showing PW over 1.2 inches... locally heavy rain will
be main concern next several days with slow moving storms and high
moisture.  Best chance for rain looks to be Monday night and
Tuesday with the shortwave.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
420
FXUS64 KMAF 031748
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 03/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

At this time it appears that KCNM and KHOB will see some TSRA
activity this afternoon and again late tonight, with MVFR ceilings and
visibilities in TSRA. Elsewhere areas of MVFR ceilings will
scatter out by mid afternoon, with VFR conditions prevailing
through the overnight hours. There`s a small chance, maybe 1 in 4,
of low ceilings developing at KMAF and KFST around sunrise. This
will hinge on the extent of mid and high cloudiness impeding Gulf
status development. Should we see holes or areas of scattered
clouds aloft, chances become more favorable for MVFR ceilings at
these TAF sites.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70
935
FXUS64 KMAF 031111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mid and high cloud will continue to spread south over the area due
to convection over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Although isolated thunderstorms will be possible at most terminals
today, probability is too low to include.  Except for MVFR ceilings
perhaps affecting KMAF prior to 03/15Z, VFR conditions will
prevail.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Little has changed in the upper pattern over the last 24 hours with
an upper ridge still to the west nosing into the region and a broad
trough across the eastern U.S. A few showers and thunderstorms along
with an associated outflow boundary was moving south across the
Texas High Plains this morning. This is leftover from convection
yesterday evening across the TX Panhandle. Hi-Res models show the
boundary slowing down and stalling across the northern Permian
Basin this afternoon. This boundary along with another mid level
disturbance could lead to the development of a few showers and
thunderstorms over SE NM and the northern half of the Permian
Basin later today. Weak shear and moderate instability will keep
severe chances low so really only looking at locally heavy rain
and strong wind gusts with these storms. The 4th of July looks
pretty similar to today with a better chance of rain across the
higher terrain with a developing theta-e axis. Will also need to
monitor for lingering outflow boundaries left over from convection
tonight.

The upper ridge flattens early next week allowing a cold front to
move south across the Southern Plains. Rain chances will increase
quite a bit with this system. Heavy rain will also be possible
with slow storm motions and climbing PWATs.

Will again go slightly below the lowest temperature guidance for the
Permian Basin today due to a continued wet ground. Temperatures
will continue to stay mostly below normal through the weekend as
moisture and clouds begin to increase. Even cooler conditions
arrive with the precip Tuesday. After that, look for the ridge to
take hold, temperatures to heat up, and chances for rain to
diminish.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  72  93  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    93  69  93  71  /  20  20  20  30
DRYDEN TX                      91  72  92  73  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  67  90  69  /  10  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              81  65  86  67  /  10  20  40  30
HOBBS NM                       89  65  90  65  /  20  20  10  20
MARFA TX                       88  65  87  65  /  20  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        90  70  92  71  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  70  90  71  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        94  70  95  71  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29
309
FXUS64 KMAF 030521
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals overnight, except KMAF
where MVFR ceilings will be possible between 03/10Z and 03/14Z.
Thunderstorms may move south into the region late tonight or early
Friday morning.  Since the probability is low for storms to affect
any terminals, will not include.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
486
FXUS64 KMAF 022320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered tstms are NW of HOB and moving s, current movement
suggest storms will remain w of HOB and will omit from TAF for
now. If outflow develops new storm development will be possible
closer to HOB. Otherwise MVFR low clouds will be possible briefly
between 10Z-14Z and have included TEMPO group at MAF only.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The concern in the short term is the coverage of thunderstorms
over southeastern New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin
tonight and again tomorrow night. The source region for these
storms (Raton Mesa, Capulin, and the Sangre de Christos of far
northern New Mexico) and subsequent cold pool generation and
organization suggests multicell linear segments dropping south or
southwest across eastern and southeastern New Mexico overnight.
There is little upper support for these storms, and in fact the
farther south they move, the more hostile environment these
storms will encounter. Have kept a slight chance to chance PoPs
over southeastern New Mexico, with activity petering out around
sunrise Friday.

Should see more a less a repeat of thunderstorm activity Friday,
with perhaps a bit of a westward shift. There should be enough
instability over the mountains to support at least isolated
coverage Friday afternoon. This scenario should repeat itself for
Independence Day and Sunday, with the bulk of the PoPs remaining
from southeastern New Mexico south across far western Texas. Given
the modest shear and marginal buoyancy, lightning, brief heavy
rain, and gusty winds will be the significant impacts through
Sunday.

We start to get into a wetter regime Monday through Wednesday as
an upper level deformation zone sets up over west Texas.
Coincident with this north-northeast/south-southwest deformation
zone will be warm mid-level theta-e air, a good setup for precip
hereabouts during the summer. Additionally, PWat values will
range from 2 to maybe 3 SD above normal. Could see some heavy
rainfall in places, but placement and timing will hinge on
mesoscale boundaries left over from earlier convection. Bears
watch, though. Will see drying working from east to west across
the region late Wednesday into Thursday, confining the best
chances for thunderstorms to the mountains.

Temperatures through Sunday will be near normal and winds will be
light, generally easterly to southeasterly. We`ll see temperatures
cool down to a bit below normal mainly Tuesday and Wednesday with
the increase in cloud cover and moisture, then return back to mid
July levels toward the end of the week.

Felt that a consensus blend of forecasts, with a lean toward the
SREF, was warranted through Sunday, then the superblend looked
okay into next week. While it`s unfortunate that some 4th of July
activities will be impacted by thunderstorms, the fact that we`re
getting good rains after a few years of severe drought is welcome.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
035
FXUS64 KMAF 021739
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected the rest of the afternoon and most of the
night. May see a return of stratus before sunrise at MAF and
possibly FST with MVFR cigs. Could be a few afternoon or evening
storms but coverage too low to include in TAFs.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A morning height analysis reveals a persistent pattern across the
Conus with an upper ridge nosing into our region from the west and a
large trough stretching from the Great Lakes down to Florida. At the
surface, moist, southeasterly flow continues off the Gulf of Mexico
as evidenced by the 60 degree dewpoints and low clouds moving north.
This general pattern will stay in tact into this weekend with a few
minor day to day differences. Today looks mostly dry for the area
until this evening when a disturbance moves south across the TX
Panhandle. Much of the convective activity will remain north of our
area, but outflow boundaries could push a few showers and storms
into the northern Permian Basin and SE NM. An instability axis will
develop across NM and far West Texas as we head toward the weekend.
This will bring a better chance for rain to the Guadalupe Mountains
and surrounding areas.  Will also need to monitor convective
activity to the north Friday night as it may head south and affect
parts of the area early Saturday morning.

Will go below lowest temperature guidance once again today for the
Permian Basin as the ground remains wet from the heavy rain a couple
days ago. Expect similar conditions Friday as clouds and moisture
increase. The 4th of July still looks mild with highs a few degrees
below normal and a chance of rain across the higher terrain.

The beginning of next week is starting to look more interesting.
The GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF have decent agreement and now show a
cold front slowly making its way south across the Southern Plains
Monday and Tuesday. Should this verify, rain chances will need to
be increased and temperatures brought down.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
492
FXUS64 KMAF 020941
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Persistence rules. KMAF VWP shows the LLJ relaxing over the past few
hrs, w/GOES cloud products showing stratus has developed north into
the Permian Basin, w/MVFR cigs currently at KMAF. Models/buffer soundings
keep these cigs at KMAF, and possibly KINK, and persisting into the
late morning or even early afternoon. A low- based cu field is expected
to develop everywhere but KHOB/KINK, where soundings to not reach convective
temps, w/little chances of convection. A 30+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop
near the end of the forecast period near KFST, w/redevelopment of stratus
possible at KMAF near the end of the forecast period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A morning height analysis reveals a persistent pattern across the
Conus with an upper ridge nosing into our region from the west and a
large trough stretching from the Great Lakes down to Florida. At the
surface, moist, southeasterly flow continues off the Gulf of Mexico
as evidenced by the 60 degree dewpoints and low clouds moving north.
This general pattern will stay in tact into this weekend with a few
minor day to day differences. Today looks mostly dry for the area
until this evening when a disturbance moves south across the TX
Panhandle. Much of the convective activity will remain north of our
area, but outflow boundaries could push a few showers and storms
into the northern Permian Basin and SE NM. An instability axis will
develop across NM and far West Texas as we head toward the weekend.
This will bring a better chance for rain to the Guadalupe Mountains
and surrounding areas.  Will also need to monitor convective
activity to the north Friday night as it may head south and affect
parts of the area early Saturday morning.

Will go below lowest temperature guidance once again today for the
Permian Basin as the ground remains wet from the heavy rain a couple
days ago. Expect similar conditions Friday as clouds and moisture
increase. The 4th of July still looks mild with highs a few degrees
below normal and a chance of rain across the higher terrain.

The beginning of next week is starting to look more interesting.
The GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF have decent agreement and now show a
cold front slowly making its way south across the Southern Plains
Monday and Tuesday. Should this verify, rain chances will need to
be increased and temperatures brought down.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
003
FXUS64 KMAF 020541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Persistence rules. KMAF VWP shows a 30+kt LLJ right off the deck
tonight, w/GOES cloud products showing MVFR stratus already
developing over the Lwr Trans Pecos. Models/buffer soundings bring
these cigs into KMAF (IFR) and KINK (MVFR) overnight, and
persisting into the late morning or even early afternoon.
Convective temps will be harder to reach this afternoon, w/a low-
based cu field expected to develop only KCNM/KPEQ/KFST, w/little
chances of convection. A 35+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop near
the end of the forecast period near KFST.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
097
FXUS64 KMAF 012324
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is
low cigs affecting some terminals early Thursday morning. Currently
have somewhat breezy SE winds across the region and expect speeds to
diminish overnight. MAF and FST may remain elevated through at least
midnight. MVFR/IFR cigs return once again Thursday morning and look
to affect MAF, HOB and INK for a few hours. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will be the rule.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change expected in the forecast through the end of the
week. An upper high will remain centered near the Four Corners
region leaving west Texas and southeastern New Mexico in a slight
northwesterly upper flow. Subsidence on the southeastern side of
this high will put a cap on most convection with the best rain
chances occurring in the orographically favored Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains as well as southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin where outflows from convection farther
north may provide enough forced ascent. Early next week the high
will drift slightly east creating a more westerly upper flow
causing temperatures to climb a few degrees. Rain chances will
also diminish as subsidence increases.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
980
FXUS64 KMAF 011746
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be out of the south to southeast throughout the period.
Gusty winds will be likely this afternoon into this evening for
MAF, FST, and PEQ. Elevated winds are expected again late Thursday
morning. Low ceilings are possible around 12z Thursday for MAF,
HOB, and INK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS SET UP CAMP
AND DOESN`T LOOK TO GO ANYWHERE SOON. WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH OUR REGION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS
OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY MOVE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST BUT
NEVER REALLY STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE, A THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS
NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR AREAS THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY (MAINLY THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB. AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOUR 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS GREAT
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90`S AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
006
FXUS64 KMAF 010942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
442 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH QUIETER MORNING THIS AM, W/A FEW HIGH CLOUD OVER WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. STILL A LOT OF
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS DUE TO LAST NIGHT`S MCS, AND
STRATUS REMAINS IN PLAY. LATEST BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF IFR CIGS AT KMAF, AND MVFR AT KFST AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, LOW-BASED CU FIELD IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A 35+KT LLJ RESUMES NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS SET UP CAMP
AND DOESN`T LOOK TO GO ANYWHERE SOON. WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH OUR REGION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS
OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY MOVE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST BUT
NEVER REALLY STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE, A THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS
NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR AREAS THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY (MAINLY THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB. AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOUR 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS GREAT
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90`S AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
786
FXUS64 KMAF 010548
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH QUIETER NIGHT TONIGHT, W/A FEW HIGH CLOUD OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS DUE TO LAST NIGHT`S MCS, AND STRATUS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATEST BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING IN A FEW
HOURS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KMAF, AND MVFR AT KINK/KFST AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, LOW-BASED CU FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A 35+KT LLJ
RESUMES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER STORMS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA,
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
AFFECTED MUCH BY THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE
MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS INDICATED BY A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED OMEGA. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LIFT MOVES SOUTHWARD, STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING THIS TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
199
FXUS64 KMAF 302259
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
559 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
IN PLACE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTY AT TIMES.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER STORMS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA,
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
AFFECTED MUCH BY THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE
MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS INDICATED BY A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED OMEGA. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LIFT MOVES SOUTHWARD, STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING THIS TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


67/80
359
FXUS64 KMAF 301557
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1057 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. THE 30/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION IS
ALSO INCLUDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING WITH
CLOUD COVER AND A FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN IT/S WAKE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM DUE TO CLOUD COVER...BUT ALSO DUE
TO THE SWATH OF RAINFALL TOTALING ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF TO THREE
INCHES FROM THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN.  THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FURTHER IN THESE LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE PRESIDIO
VALLEY...EASTWARD ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
SINCE UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL EXIST
THROUGH MAX HEATING...WE MAY SEE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP.  GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KMAF LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
912
FXUS64 KMAF 301355
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
855 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS IT MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
MARFA PLATEAU AT 30/1345Z.  THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE CONVECTION LEFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING.  WE COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MAX HEATING...SO WILL
LEAVE LOW ORDER POPS THERE.  A COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE LEVELS
OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION.  ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL...AND OTHERWISE TWEAKED
SKY COVERAGE. AN UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AFTER
DROPPING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CREATING STRONG WINDS. MODERATE RAIN
AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE AT KMAF, KINK, KPEQ, AND KFST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. ONCE THIS STORM
COMPLEX DISSIPATES, NOT EXPECTING ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...

WE`LL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE FOR THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION.  UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FIRST FORECAST USING A2...SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. WE`LL KEEP
THIS SHORT, AS RADAR SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING SW THRU
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH
OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. KMAF VWP
INDICATES A 25+KT SOUTHERLY LLJ RIGHT OFF THE DECK, HELPING
MAINTAIN THIS ALSO. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS NICELY, AND CARRIES
IT AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FFMP INDICATES RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2.5"+/HR OVER HOWARD/SCURRY COUNTIES, AND FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF
THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA INTO THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST
STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  90  70  94  69  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    93  65  97  69  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      92  72  90  71  /  30  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               91  68  95  68  /  30   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  64  91  68  /  20   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                       91  65  93  67  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                       86  57  88  59  /  30  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        90  69  94  70  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      89  70  94  69  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                        95  70  97  71  /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
965
FXUS64 KMAF 301115
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AFTER
DROPPING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CREATING STRONG WINDS. MODERATE RAIN
AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE AT KMAF, KINK, KPEQ, AND KFST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. ONCE THIS STORM
COMPLEX DISSIPATES, NOT EXPECTING ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...

WE`LL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE FOR THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION.  UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FIRST FORECAST USING A2...SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. WE`LL KEEP
THIS SHORT, AS RADAR SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING SW THRU
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH
OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. KMAF VWP
INDICATES A 25+KT SOUTHERLY LLJ RIGHT OFF THE DECK, HELPING
MAINTAIN THIS ALSO. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS NICELY, AND CARRIES
IT AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FFMP INDICATES RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2.5"+/HR OVER HOWARD/SCURRY COUNTIES, AND FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF
THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA INTO THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST
STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
208
FXUS64 KMAF 300528
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR EAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
OVERNIGHT. UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED IF THESE STORMS MOVE TOWARD
KMAF.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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