Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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964
FXUS64 KMAF 211713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and south winds to continue this TAF period. There
will be some isolated TS developing this afternoon/evening from
20Z-02Z but coverage will not be enough to include in TAFs. Any
storms affecting the terminals will be handled with amendments.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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639
FXUS64 KMAF 210951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Return return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/a 40+kt LLJ forecast
to develop near the end of the forecast period. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field again by late morning,
w/bases 4-8 kft agl. VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours.
Sfc trough is forecast to shift WNW later today, as will the
chances for convection. We`ll insert a mention at KCNM, which
models suggest will have the best chances later today. Latest
buffer soundings for KMAF suggest brief IFR cigs at KMAF this
morning, which received 1/4-1/2" of rain yesterday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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726
FXUS64 KMAF 210553
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

KMAF radar shows the LLJ has redeveloped tonight, although a bit
weaker than last night, w/~25 kts of return flow overhead. This
return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/a stronger LLJ forecast
to redevelop near the end of the forecast period. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field again by late morning,
w/bases 4-8 kft agl. VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours.
Sfc trough is forecast to shift WNW later today, as will the
chances for convection. We`ll insert a mention at KCNM, which
models suggest wil have the best chances later today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Ongoing evening thunderstorms will complicate TAF forecast through
at least 02z... with TEMPO groups included at KMAF, KFST, and KPEQ
for periods of MVFR conditions. Thunderstorm outflow winds will
create gusty and erratic conditions near the aforementioned
terminals. Anticipate convection to wane with loss of daytime
heating, but will amend as necessary based on trends. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period
with the lone exception being a window for MVFR ceilings at KMAF
between 12-14z. South to southeasterly winds around 10 kts will
increase mid-morning to include gusts around 20 kts in response to
a surface trough along the Texas/New Mexico border. Thunderstorms
will be possible again Thursday afternoon/evening, but look to
remain west of the terminals.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern coast of
California with an upper ridge over the Gulf coast states.  This is
resulting in southwest flow over far West Texas and southeast New
Mexico which is bringing in mid-level subtropical moisture.  The
increase in moisture along with an increase in omega values along
and south of the Davis Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the western half of the CWA this
afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today
across parts of the Permian Basin with CAPE values around or above
1,000 J/kg.  Bulk shear values will be low across the whole area so
not expecting widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  Will not issue a Flash
Flood Watch at this time due to QPF amounts not being high enough to
warrant one but will continue to mention flooding threat in HWO.
The PWAT value on the 12z MAF sounding was 1.39 which would support
heavy rain.  High temperatures today will be near normal and similar
to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and western portions of the CWA through
the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern extent of
the precipitation will depend on the strength and placement of the
upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of next week, an upper
trough will move over the Northern Plains which which will cause the
upper ridge to shift eastward and weaken over the CWA.  Temperatures
will not change too much through the forecast period and should
remain near normal despite the presence of a surface trough across
eastern New Mexico and West Texas.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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269
FXUS64 KMAF 210006
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
706 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Ongoing evening thunderstorms will complicate TAF forecast through
at least 02z... with TEMPO groups included at KMAF, KFST, and KPEQ
for periods of MVFR conditions. Thunderstorm outflow winds will
create gusty and erratic conditions near the aforementioned
terminals. Anticipate convection to wane with loss of daytime
heating, but will amend as necessary based on trends. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period
with the lone exception being a window for MVFR ceilings at KMAF
between 12-14z. South to southeasterly winds around 10 kts will
increase mid-morning to include gusts around 20 kts in response to
a surface trough along the Texas/New Mexico border. Thunderstorms
will be possible again Thursday afternoon/evening, but look to
remain west of the terminals.

Huffman

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern coast of
California with an upper ridge over the Gulf coast states.  This is
resulting in southwest flow over far West Texas and southeast New
Mexico which is bringing in mid-level subtropical moisture.  The
increase in moisture along with an increase in omega values along
and south of the Davis Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the western half of the CWA this
afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today
across parts of the Permian Basin with CAPE values around or above
1,000 J/kg.  Bulk shear values will be low across the whole area so
not expecting widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  Will not issue a Flash
Flood Watch at this time due to QPF amounts not being high enough to
warrant one but will continue to mention flooding threat in HWO.
The PWAT value on the 12z MAF sounding was 1.39 which would support
heavy rain.  High temperatures today will be near normal and similar
to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and western portions of the CWA through
the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern extent of
the precipitation will depend on the strength and placement of the
upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of next week, an upper
trough will move over the Northern Plains which which will cause the
upper ridge to shift eastward and weaken over the CWA.  Temperatures
will not change too much through the forecast period and should
remain near normal despite the presence of a surface trough across
eastern New Mexico and West Texas.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

13

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010
FXUS64 KMAF 201744
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1244 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect afternoon storms to fire up across the higher elevations...
most will be west of TAF locations except could see a few near FST
or CNM.  Otherwise gusty southerly wind during the afternoon
should drop off but not die out after sunset.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper low continues to drop south along the CA coast this morning
while a large upper ridge encompasses most of the Gulf Coast region.
In between these two systems a subtropical moisture plume is present
over far West Texas and NM. This brought showers and thunderstorms
to these areas yesterday and is expected to do so again the rest of
the week. Locations that have the best chance of rain will shift
each day as the strength of the upper high fluctuates. The best
chance for storms today will remain across the west with only
isolated convection expected over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. There is a potential for heavy rain over the Davis Mountains
and adjacent areas where precipitable water values are near 1.5".

Models continue to struggle with the strength of the upper high and
whether it will be strong enough to deflect West Coast trough. Will
continue to keep the best chances for convection over SE NM down to
the Big Bend through the end of the week. PoPs may need to be
expanded east in subsequent forecasts if the ridge is indeed weaker.
Currently do not see any well defined shortwaves to affect the CWA
nor do the models suggest it so will hold off on any Flash Flood
Watch and keep mention of heavy rain in the HWO.

Temperatures will remain near to just above normal except across
western areas where clouds and rain are expected. By early next
week a rather deep upper trough will dig into the Western U.S. This
may help to weaken the ridge and allow better rain chances with
slightly cooler temps.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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555
FXUS64 KMAF 200953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

KMAF radar shows the LLJ in full swing tonight, w/~30kt return
flow right off the deck. Expect return flow to continue next 24
hours, except out west, where a westerly component is expected. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases
4.5-6 kft agl. Convection will be possible west and south again
today, on the periphery of the upper ridge. For now, we`ll only
include it at KFST, w/MVFR visibilities due to heavy precip.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper low continues to drop south along the CA coast this morning
while a large upper ridge encompasses most of the Gulf Coast region.
In between these two systems a subtropical moisture plume is present
over far West Texas and NM. This brought showers and thunderstorms
to these areas yesterday and is expected to do so again the rest of
the week. Locations that have the best chance of rain will shift
each day as the strength of the upper high fluctuates. The best
chance for storms today will remain across the west with only
isolated convection expected over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. There is a potential for heavy rain over the Davis Mountains
and adjacent areas where precipitable water values are near 1.5".

Models continue to struggle with the strength of the upper high and
whether it will be strong enough to deflect West Coast trough. Will
continue to keep the best chances for convection over SE NM down to
the Big Bend through the end of the week. PoPs may need to be
expanded east in subsequent forecasts if the ridge is indeed weaker.
Currently do not see any well defined shortwaves to affect the CWA
nor do the models suggest it so will hold off on any Flash Flood
Watch and keep mention of heavy rain in the HWO.

Temperatures will remain near to just above normal except across
western areas where clouds and rain are expected. By early next
week a rather deep upper trough will dig into the Western U.S. This
may help to weaken the ridge and allow better rain chances with
slightly cooler temps.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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421
FXUS64 KMAF 200533
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

KMAF radar shows the LLJ in full swing tonight, w/~30kt return
flow right off the deck. Expect return flow to continue next 24
hours. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late
morning, w/bases 5-6 kft agl. Convection will be possible west and
south aagain today, on the periphery of the upper ridge. For now,
we`ll only include it at KFST, w/MVFR visibilities due to heavy precip.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

UPDATE...
Dropping rain chances east and increasing chances west of the Davis
Mountains.

DISCUSSION...
Convection across much of southwest Texas and New Mexico appears
to be winding down for the evening. Additional convection is
entering west Texas from northern Mexico. NAM model hints that
shortwave may be aiding in continuing development of convection
over this area. With precipitable water values near 1.50", heavy
rainfall is possible from the Rio Grande to the Davis Mountains
overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Storms are slowly decreasing, but there are still some focus areas
and for now will leave in a TEMPO TSRA at FST til 02z. SE winds
around 10kts thru the night are expected. Late in the period TSRA
will again be possible at CNM/FST/INK. PEQ seems the most favored
of the three and will include a PROB30 late Wed PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

UPDATE...
Added isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over
northern portion of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION...

Well-developed cumulus apparent on visibility satellite imagery
over southeast New Mexico and the northern parts of the Permian
Basin. Radar indicating thunderstorms have initiated within this
cumulus field. Would expect continued development of at least
isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon with further
development occurring on intersecting boundaries.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The shear axis which gave the Permian Basin scattered thunderstorms
yesterday is still over west central Texas, but weaker than a day
ago.  Also, the atmosphere is fairly stable where rainfall occurred
yesterday, so scattered thunderstorms look unlikely this afternoon
and evening in these areas.  However, subtropical moisture is
prevalent over the higher terrain, and along with a shortwave trough
over Chihuahua, if not along the Rio Grande River, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Davis and Glass
Mountains, along with the Marfa Plateau, Stockton Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos.  The main threat from these storms will be
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

An ua trough will dig further south along the California coast by
Wednesday, while an ua ridge remains entrenched over the
southeastern ConUS.  The forecast area will remain between these
synoptic scale features the next few days until the mentioned ua
trough ejects northeastward over the central Rockies.  Southerly
flow aloft over the region during this time will direct subtropical
mid and upper level moisture over the area, which along with
periodic shortwave troughs, result in thunderstorms chances
continuing into next weekend.  The western half of the forecast area
will have the best chance for thunderstorms, but some models are
indicating thunderstorm activity developing east of a semi permanent
surface trough, that is, over the Permian Basin.  Not quite sold on
the further east solution considering differences in how strong the
ua ridge will be over eastern reaches of the CWA, not to mention
differences amongst models in the timing of the ua trough ejecting.

The potential exists for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
the higher terrain through the rest of the week considering PWats
will be 1.5 to 2 inches for much of this time.  Will not carry
PoPs quite high enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, which would
likely be issued for locations west of a Hobbs to Alpine to Big
Bend line, but subsequent shifts may come up with the agreement
necessary to do so.  Will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for now.  Temperatures will be at or slightly above normal through
the week, except over western reaches of the forecast area where
clouds and precipitation will tend to temper readings.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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051
FXUS64 KMAF 200131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
831 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Dropping rain chances east and increasing chances west of the Davis
Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Convection across much of southwest Texas and New Mexico appears
to be winding down for the evening. Additional convection is
entering west Texas from northern Mexico. NAM model hints that
shortwave may be aiding in continuing development of convection
over this area. With precipitable water values near 1.50", heavy
rainfall is possible from the Rio Grande to the Davis Mountains
overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Storms are slowly decreasing, but there are still some focus areas
and for now will leave in a TEMPO TSRA at FST til 02z. SE winds
around 10kts thru the night are expected. Late in the period TSRA
will again be possible at CNM/FST/INK. PEQ seems the most favored
of the three and will include a PROB30 late Wed PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

UPDATE...
Added isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over
northern portion of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION...

Well-developed cumulus apparent on visibility satellite imagery
over southeast New Mexico and the northern parts of the Permian
Basin. Radar indicating thunderstorms have initiated within this
cumulus field. Would expect continued development of at least
isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon with further
development occurring on intersecting boundaries.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The shear axis which gave the Permian Basin scattered thunderstorms
yesterday is still over west central Texas, but weaker than a day
ago.  Also, the atmosphere is fairly stable where rainfall occurred
yesterday, so scattered thunderstorms look unlikely this afternoon
and evening in these areas.  However, subtropical moisture is
prevalent over the higher terrain, and along with a shortwave trough
over Chihuahua, if not along the Rio Grande River, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Davis and Glass
Mountains, along with the Marfa Plateau, Stockton Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos.  The main threat from these storms will be
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

An ua trough will dig further south along the California coast by
Wednesday, while an ua ridge remains entrenched over the
southeastern ConUS.  The forecast area will remain between these
synoptic scale features the next few days until the mentioned ua
trough ejects northeastward over the central Rockies.  Southerly
flow aloft over the region during this time will direct subtropical
mid and upper level moisture over the area, which along with
periodic shortwave troughs, result in thunderstorms chances
continuing into next weekend.  The western half of the forecast area
will have the best chance for thunderstorms, but some models are
indicating thunderstorm activity developing east of a semi permanent
surface trough, that is, over the Permian Basin.  Not quite sold on
the further east solution considering differences in how strong the
ua ridge will be over eastern reaches of the CWA, not to mention
differences amongst models in the timing of the ua trough ejecting.

The potential exists for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
the higher terrain through the rest of the week considering PWats
will be 1.5 to 2 inches for much of this time.  Will not carry
PoPs quite high enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, which would
likely be issued for locations west of a Hobbs to Alpine to Big
Bend line, but subsequent shifts may come up with the agreement
necessary to do so.  Will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for now.  Temperatures will be at or slightly above normal through
the week, except over western reaches of the forecast area where
clouds and precipitation will tend to temper readings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  93  71  93  /  10  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              70  94  76  93  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  95  70  94  /  10  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  75 100  77  98  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  92  71  93  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  86  66  84  /  20  40  40  40
HOBBS NM                   64  92  67  91  /  10  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   62  85  62  84  /  50  50  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  94  73  92  /  10  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  69  94  74  92  /  10  20  20  20
WINK TX                    73  96  74  94  /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/05

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585
FXUS64 KMAF 192318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storms are slowly decreasing, but there are still some focus areas
and for now will leave in a TEMPO TSRA at FST til 02z. SE winds
around 10kts thru the night are expected. Late in the period TSRA
will again be possible at CNM/FST/INK. PEQ seems the most favored
of the three and will include a PROB30 late Wed PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

UPDATE...
Added isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over
northern portion of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION...

Well-developed cumulus apparent on visibility satellite imagery
over southeast New Mexico and the northern parts of the Permian
Basin. Radar indicating thunderstorms have initiated within this
cumulus field. Would expect continued development of at least
isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon with further
development occurring on intersecting boundaries.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The shear axis which gave the Permian Basin scattered thunderstorms
yesterday is still over west central Texas, but weaker than a day
ago.  Also, the atmosphere is fairly stable where rainfall occurred
yesterday, so scattered thunderstorms look unlikely this afternoon
and evening in these areas.  However, subtropical moisture is
prevalent over the higher terrain, and along with a shortwave trough
over Chihuahua, if not along the Rio Grande River, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Davis and Glass
Mountains, along with the Marfa Plateau, Stockton Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos.  The main threat from these storms will be
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

An ua trough will dig further south along the California coast by
Wednesday, while an ua ridge remains entrenched over the
southeastern ConUS.  The forecast area will remain between these
synoptic scale features the next few days until the mentioned ua
trough ejects northeastward over the central Rockies.  Southerly
flow aloft over the region during this time will direct subtropical
mid and upper level moisture over the area, which along with
periodic shortwave troughs, result in thunderstorms chances
continuing into next weekend.  The western half of the forecast area
will have the best chance for thunderstorms, but some models are
indicating thunderstorm activity developing east of a semi permanent
surface trough, that is, over the Permian Basin.  Not quite sold on
the further east solution considering differences in how strong the
ua ridge will be over eastern reaches of the CWA, not to mention
differences amongst models in the timing of the ua trough ejecting.

The potential exists for heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
the higher terrain through the rest of the week considering PWats
will be 1.5 to 2 inches for much of this time.  Will not carry
PoPs quite high enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, which would
likely be issued for locations west of a Hobbs to Alpine to Big
Bend line, but subsequent shifts may come up with the agreement
necessary to do so.  Will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for now.  Temperatures will be at or slightly above normal through
the week, except over western reaches of the forecast area where
clouds and precipitation will tend to temper readings.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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840
FXUS64 KMAF 191725
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1218 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
area with FST and PEQ having the best chances of seeing convection.
Outside of convection, VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will
mostly be out of the south during the period with elevated and gusty
winds occurring this afternoon and evening and late Wednesday
morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge extending up along the Front Range into MT, and split flow to
the west, w/an upper trough just off the west coast near the Bay
Area.  A weak, decaying upper low is positioned over the Hill
Country to the east.  This feature will warrant a slight chance of
convection over the eastern zones this afternoon, while areas west
of the Pecos will see slightly better chances in a weak upslope flow
scenario.  Temps will remain relatively cool, although a bit warmer
than yesterday, w/the H85 thermal ridge extending from the Big Bend
NW into SE NM.

Wednesday, the upper ridge begins nudging east, courtesy of the
incoming west coast trough.  This will open a window over the
western half of the FA for convection into the weekend.  Although
the ridge is forecast to shift east, thicknesses won`t change much,
so temps should remain steady and just above normal into next week.
The GFS/ECMWF are similar in temps in the extended, so we won`t
stray too far from MOS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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638
FXUS64 KMAF 191050
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
550 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Isolated storms are possible this afternoon mainly away from the
terminals. VFR conditions will prevail with a gusty southeasterly
wind this afternoon diminishing after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge extending up along the Front Range into MT, and split flow to
the west, w/an upper trough just off the west coast near the Bay
Area.  A weak, decaying upper low is positioned over the Hill
Country to the east.  This feature will warrant a slight chance of
convection over the eastern zones this afternoon, while areas west
of the Pecos will see slightly better chances in a weak upslope flow
scenario.  Temps will remain relatively cool, although a bit warmer
than yesterday, w/the H85 thermal ridge extending from the Big Bend
NW into SE NM.

Wednesday, the upper ridge begins nudging east, courtesy of the
incoming west coast trough.  This will open a window over the
western half of the FA for convection into the weekend.  Although
the ridge is forecast to shift east, thicknesses won`t change much,
so temps should remain steady and just above normal into next week.
The GFS/ECMWF are similar in temps in the extended, so we won`t
stray too far from MOS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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248
FXUS64 KMAF 190435
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the afternoon and into
the evening. Thunderstorms are possible once again this afternoon,
but should remain isolated near the terminals so will not include
in any TAFs. Winds will become gusty across the PB and Trans Pecos by
early afternoon before diminishing after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast to lower pops tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Most of the storms have moved out of the area pushing into West
Central TX. May see some redevelopment over the region tonight so
have lowered pops but not removed them.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shear axis is evident in water vapor imagery over west central
Texas into the Lower Trans Pecos and into Davis Mountains.  Showers
and thunderstorms have been developing within higher mid level theta
e air over west central Texas all morning in association with this
shear axis, while outflow from that activity appears to be spreading
higher mid level theta e air westward.  This seems to be the impetus
for showers and thunderstorms developing over the western Low
Rolling Plains, with additional convection poised to develop through
the afternoon over the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains, at least according to cumulus developing these areas in
the latest visible satellite imagery, and in the vicinity of a weak
surface trough south.  Think good heating, plenty of moisture
through the column and increasing upslope flow will foster
thunderstorm development into the evening in most of these areas.
Therefore, have increased PoPs for this afternoon and evening, but
particularly from the Davis Mountains, eastward into the Lower Trans
Pecos.  Think gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms, but
PWats of 1.5 to 2 inches over southwest Texas will make heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding the main concern.

Thunderstorm chances will continue the next few days as the ua ridge
currently near the Four Corners region never does really build back
over the area.  Instead, southerly flow aloft comes about over the
area by Tuesday, strengthens Wednesday and Thursday, and still hangs
around Friday as a broad ua trough encompasses much of the western
ConUS behind the main shortwave trough ejecting northeastward
through the Four Corners region Thursday.  Subtropical moisture will
be siphoned north/northeastward over the area during these days
between an ua ridge over the southeastern ConUS and the mentioned
western ua trough.  Therefore, have kept a chance of thunderstorms
going Tuesday through Friday, with the emphasis over the western
half of the forecast area.  Since PWats will rise to 1.5 to 2 inches
Wednesday and Thursday, later shifts will have to determine whether
a Flash Flood Watch will be necessary west of the Pecos River these
days since thunderstorms could train over these areas.  Backed away
from the hotter temperatures through the week, partially due to
models indicating the upper ridge will not build westward over the
region aggressively through late week, and due to the potential for
cloud cover and precipitation over the western half of the CWA.

Rain chances will continue over the western third or so of the
forecast area through next weekend as the ua ridge is still not
progged to build westward emphatically.  Will only keep temperatures
a few degrees above normal into early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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526
FXUS64 KMAF 190135
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
835 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast to lower pops tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the storms have moved out of the area pushing into West
Central TX. May see some redevelopment over the region tonight so
have lowered pops but not removed them.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas area terminals through Tuesday afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible through mid-evening today generally
south of I-20 with chances too small to include in terminals. Any
thunderstorms that occur will be capable of producing variable and
gusty winds. Thunderstorms are expected to occur again Tuesday
afternoon, though mainly in the mountains. Through the overnight
hours, winds will be generally south to southeast at less than 12
knots across the area, though gusty near thunderstorms. Winds
will become more southerly on Tuesday and strengthen with south
winds around 15 knots in the Permian Basin area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shear axis is evident in water vapor imagery over west central
Texas into the Lower Trans Pecos and into Davis Mountains.  Showers
and thunderstorms have been developing within higher mid level theta
e air over west central Texas all morning in association with this
shear axis, while outflow from that activity appears to be spreading
higher mid level theta e air westward.  This seems to be the impetus
for showers and thunderstorms developing over the western Low
Rolling Plains, with additional convection poised to develop through
the afternoon over the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains, at least according to cumulus developing these areas in
the latest visible satellite imagery, and in the vicinity of a weak
surface trough south.  Think good heating, plenty of moisture
through the column and increasing upslope flow will foster
thunderstorm development into the evening in most of these areas.
Therefore, have increased PoPs for this afternoon and evening, but
particularly from the Davis Mountains, eastward into the Lower Trans
Pecos.  Think gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms, but
PWats of 1.5 to 2 inches over southwest Texas will make heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding the main concern.

Thunderstorm chances will continue the next few days as the ua ridge
currently near the Four Corners region never does really build back
over the area.  Instead, southerly flow aloft comes about over the
area by Tuesday, strengthens Wednesday and Thursday, and still hangs
around Friday as a broad ua trough encompasses much of the western
ConUS behind the main shortwave trough ejecting northeastward
through the Four Corners region Thursday.  Subtropical moisture will
be siphoned north/northeastward over the area during these days
between an ua ridge over the southeastern ConUS and the mentioned
western ua trough.  Therefore, have kept a chance of thunderstorms
going Tuesday through Friday, with the emphasis over the western
half of the forecast area.  Since PWats will rise to 1.5 to 2 inches
Wednesday and Thursday, later shifts will have to determine whether
a Flash Flood Watch will be necessary west of the Pecos River these
days since thunderstorms could train over these areas.  Backed away
from the hotter temperatures through the week, partially due to
models indicating the upper ridge will not build westward over the
region aggressively through late week, and due to the potential for
cloud cover and precipitation over the western half of the CWA.

Rain chances will continue over the western third or so of the
forecast area through next weekend as the ua ridge is still not
progged to build westward emphatically.  Will only keep temperatures
a few degrees above normal into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  91  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  93  74  95  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                69  94  70  94  /  10  20  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  76  97  75  96  /  30  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  91  71  91  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  85  64  82  /  20  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   65  90  65  91  /  10  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   60  86  61  84  /  30  30  30  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  93  72  94  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  70  91  72  93  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    70  96  72  96  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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311
FXUS64 KMAF 182253
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas area terminals through Tuesday afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible through mid-evening today generally
south of I-20 with chances too small to include in terminals. Any
thunderstorms that occur will be capable of producing variable and
gusty winds. Thunderstorms are expected to occur again Tuesday
afternoon, though mainly in the mountains. Through the overnight
hours, winds will be generally south to southeast at less than 12
knots across the area, though gusty near thunderstorms. Winds
will become more southerly on Tuesday and strengthen with south
winds around 15 knots in the Permian Basin area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shear axis is evident in water vapor imagery over west central
Texas into the Lower Trans Pecos and into Davis Mountains.  Showers
and thunderstorms have been developing within higher mid level theta
e air over west central Texas all morning in association with this
shear axis, while outflow from that activity appears to be spreading
higher mid level theta e air westward.  This seems to be the impetus
for showers and thunderstorms developing over the western Low
Rolling Plains, with additional convection poised to develop through
the afternoon over the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Davis
Mountains, at least according to cumulus developing these areas in
the latest visible satellite imagery, and in the vicinity of a weak
surface trough south.  Think good heating, plenty of moisture
through the column and increasing upslope flow will foster
thunderstorm development into the evening in most of these areas.
Therefore, have increased PoPs for this afternoon and evening, but
particularly from the Davis Mountains, eastward into the Lower Trans
Pecos.  Think gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms, but
PWats of 1.5 to 2 inches over southwest Texas will make heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding the main concern.

Thunderstorm chances will continue the next few days as the ua ridge
currently near the Four Corners region never does really build back
over the area.  Instead, southerly flow aloft comes about over the
area by Tuesday, strengthens Wednesday and Thursday, and still hangs
around Friday as a broad ua trough encompasses much of the western
ConUS behind the main shortwave trough ejecting northeastward
through the Four Corners region Thursday.  Subtropical moisture will
be siphoned north/northeastward over the area during these days
between an ua ridge over the southeastern ConUS and the mentioned
western ua trough.  Therefore, have kept a chance of thunderstorms
going Tuesday through Friday, with the emphasis over the western
half of the forecast area.  Since PWats will rise to 1.5 to 2 inches
Wednesday and Thursday, later shifts will have to determine whether
a Flash Flood Watch will be necessary west of the Pecos River these
days since thunderstorms could train over these areas.  Backed away
from the hotter temperatures through the week, partially due to
models indicating the upper ridge will not build westward over the
region aggressively through late week, and due to the potential for
cloud cover and precipitation over the western half of the CWA.

Rain chances will continue over the western third or so of the
forecast area through next weekend as the ua ridge is still not
progged to build westward emphatically.  Will only keep temperatures
a few degrees above normal into early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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116
FXUS64 KMAF 181725
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
for MAF, FST, and PEQ but the best chances are for FST.  Winds will
mostly be out of the east to southeast today with elevated winds
occurring around 00z before weakening.  South to southeast winds will
prevail Tuesday morning with winds becoming gusty toward noon.
There is a very slight chance of lower ceilings for MAF around 12z to
15z Tuesday but did not mention in TAFs due to low probability.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A mid level trof axis across the far s-se CWFA will still be
evident in 5h height field this PM with the 5h theta-e ridge
mostly aligned with said trof. There is model consensus that
today`s precip will be confined to the far e-s-sw today/Tue. Low
end chance PoPs are worthy across parts of the Trans Pecos
today/Tue. 85h temps will remain in the mid/upper 20C range across
most areas today/Tue. This has generally resulted in highs in the
mid/upper 90s, except where tstm outflow has resulted in cooler
temps, like what happened yesterday in Midland. By Wed mid level
pattern change will be complete with subtropical ridge well off to
the e-se (lower heights) with a sly mid level flow. A prominent
mid level theta-e ridge will be oriented from nrn MX into far W
TX/srn NM. The most favored track for shrtwv trofs may be just a
little farther w of CWFA. Still this should be a good set-up with
atypical moist upslope flow into mtns co-located within area of
better insolation near the gradient of mid level theta-e ridge
(which at times has been observed to be a favored area for
initiation). Precipitable water will be near 1 standard deviation
above normal. More of the same Thur however best rain potential
will be more from the Davis-GDP mtns into wrn Eddy Co.. There could
be at least locally heavy rain with flooding concerns. Temps will
be relatively cool Wed/Thur even across the PB where stronger se
winds provide slightly cooling. Friday, subtropical ridge will
build back w some and mid level moist axis will push w. There will
still be ample moisture/heating for slght chc/chc PoPs, mainly
across the w. Mid level theta-e ridge slowly fades Saturday/
Sunday with only low end PoPs warranted.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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804
FXUS64 KMAF 181056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are widespread this morning with drier mid level
air too. Very loose MSLP gradient this morning as evident in
wind speed 5kts or less. Afternoon tstms will mainly stay s and e
of MAF/FST today, but will have to watch for boundaries moving
into area from east potentially providing focus.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A mid level trof axis across the far s-se CWFA will still be
evident in 5h height field this PM with the 5h theta-e ridge
mostly aligned with said trof. There is model consensus that
today`s precip will be confined to the far e-s-sw today/Tue. Low
end chance PoPs are worthy across parts of the Trans Pecos
today/Tue. 85h temps will remain in the mid/upper 20C range across
most areas today/Tue. This has generally resulted in highs in the
mid/upper 90s, except where tstm outflow has resulted in cooler
temps, like what happened yesterday in Midland. By Wed mid level
pattern change will be complete with subtropical ridge well off to
the e-se (lower heights) with a sly mid level flow. A prominent
mid level theta-e ridge will be oriented from nrn MX into far W
TX/srn NM. The most favored track for shrtwv trofs may be just a
little farther w of CWFA. Still this should be a good set-up with
atypical moist upslope flow into mtns co-located within area of
better insolation near the gradient of mid level theta-e ridge
(which at times has been observed to be a favored area for
initiation). Precipitable water will be near 1 standard deviation
above normal. More of the same Thur however best rain potential
will be more from the Davis-GDP mtns into wrn Eddy Co.. There could
be at least locally heavy rain with flooding concerns. Temps will
be relatively cool Wed/Thur even across the PB where stronger se
winds provide slightly cooling. Friday, subtropical ridge will
build back w some and mid level moist axis will push w. There will
still be ample moisture/heating for slght chc/chc PoPs, mainly
across the w. Mid level theta-e ridge slowly fades Saturday/
Sunday with only low end PoPs warranted.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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585
FXUS64 KMAF 180616
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
116 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through 19/06Z.
May see another round of isolated to scattered TSRA develop early
this afternoon across the Guadalupe/Delaware mountains south through
the Davis Mountains and the Big Bend. Outflow boundaries from these
storms could affect KFST, KPEQ, KINK, and maybe KMAF during the mid
to late afternoon hours. As a result, wind forecasts ought to be
taken with a grain of salt after 21Z or so. Confidence in TSRA
affecting all terminals is too low to mention explicitly in the TAFs.
Light and variable winds this morning will become easterly to south-
easterly during the afternoon hours at speeds generally under 10 kts.
Skies will be VFR with several mid and high level decks coming and
going throughout the day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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724
FXUS64 KMAF 172330
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
for the next few hours.  Gusty winds and reduced visibilities are
possible with these storms.  Outside of convection, winds will
generally be light out of the southeast and VFR conditions will
exist.  Storms are possible tomorrow for CNM, PEQ, and FST but
probabilities are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A weak UA trough over the region today will gradually shift eastward
with time, drawn in to the prevailing westerlies drooping southward
over the Ohio and lower Mississippi River valleys.  Most models
shear the ua trough out, with a few actually leaving some mid level
energy behind over west central Texas, or as far southwest as the
Big Bend region..  The ua ridge centered near the Four Corners
region will then make a guest appearance over the region Monday/
Monday night before shifting eastward ahead of a deepening UA trough
over the western ConUS.  The flow aloft over the region will be
southerly for a few days between this UA trough, and the ua ridge
which takes up residence over the southeastern U.S.  Just how long
the ua trough stays over the southwest U.S. before ejecting
northeastward into the central Rockies remains to be seen, but this
will ultimately determine how much time we have for an increased
chance of rain under the southerly flow aloft regime.

Will keep the highest PoPs this afternoon and tonight over the
higher terrain and Lower Trans Pecos, the former due to sufficient
moisture, good heating, upslope flow and an Mesoscale Convective
Vortex (MCV) just west of Presidio, and the latter due to the
proximity of the mentioned UA trough, and another MCV over west
central Texas.  Will also keep the slight thunderstorm chances over
the rest of the area due to remnant outflow boundaries, decent
moisture through the column and expected uncapped environment
through max heating.  A few of the stronger storms could produce
gusty winds near 50 mph, locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud
to ground lightning strikes.  Will continue the trend of shifting
PoPs south and west Monday and Tuesday as the passing UA ridge will
likely keep a lid on convection elsewhere.

Wednesday through Friday could be interesting, especially over the
higher terrain.  Not only will the flow aloft become southerly, but
there are some indications PWats could jump to at least 1.5 inches
over the higher terrain due to an influx of mid and upper level
moisture from the Pacific.  Some models are entraining rich moisture
northeastward from Tropical Storm Karina, others not so much so.
Still, there is fairly good agreement the ua ridge will not build
aggressively westward back over the region, and along with the UA
trough ejecting northeastward Thursday, a surface trough will
strengthen over the western half of the forecast area for convection
to develop on.  Will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for the potential for heavy rain out west mid to late this week.
Temperatures over the next 7 days look to be close to normal, but as
has been the case lately, on the warm side.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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853
FXUS64 KMAF 171728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible at TAF
sites later this afternoon. Gusty winds are possible in and near
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. The best chance for
thunderstorms will remain west of the Pecos River. VFR conditions
are expected to persist through the period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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315
FXUS64 KMAF 171147
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 17/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible 30NM-50NM SE KFST until mid
morning. Additional TSRA development is expected with afternoon
heating today over the mountains and adjacent plains of west Texas.
At this time it appears that KPEQ and KFST have the best chances of
seeing TSRA later today; however, confidence is not sufficient high
to include in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise expect VFR conditions
with mid and high level cloud decks throughout much of the day. Away
from TSRA activity, winds will be generally easterly to southeasterly
at speeds AOA 10 kts, becoming light and variable around midnight
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
This afternoon the subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF nrn
AZ and a well established NE 5h wind will be in place across the
CWFA. Still there will be the presence of higher theta-e air across
the area, moreso at 7h than 5h. Meanwhile there are still outflow
boundaries across the area, one such has moved thru SE NM and into
the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. NAM12/ECMWF are rather eager
to develop SHRA/TSRA this PM, TTU WRF does too, but confines
precip more or less to areas of I-20. Current fcst has a pretty
good handle on that and will only need to extend chance PoPs a
little farther e into Terrell Co.. Monday looks to be a down day
precip wise across the plains, but enough mstr/heating in mtns for
diurnally driven SHRA/TSRA in the slght chc range. By Tue the
subtropical ridge breaks down over the area with a short-fetch sly
flow developing. Sly mid level flow is usually a good signal for
precip and higher theta-e air does move back into the area, but no
real evidence of a shrtwv trof. Thus PoPs mainly focused around
the mtns and Lower Trans Pecos. ECMWF/Canadian continue to amplify
the pattern with a well a defined mid level theta-e ridge and a
longer sly mid level fetch, evident in the 5h height field Wed into
Thur. Accordingly so both models bring a slug of higher QPF nwd
Wed and Thur. Of course difficult to say where it will be, but
generally from Big Bend into Upper Trans Pecos/wrn PB seems the
favored areas for now. This could be heavy rain too. A time series
of 85h temps and 5h heights show heights steadily falling thru Wed
and temps slowly decreasing. Wrn areas will likely be below normal
especially Mon-Thur due the clouds/lower heights if not precip.
Fri-Sun heights increase again and sly fetch is shut off with
drier/hotter wx returning for all areas, which is corroborated in
the GEFS ensemble runs of 1-2 positive standard deviations
anomalies.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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901
FXUS64 KMAF 170608
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
108 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 17/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Another complex situation this morning with surface outflow boundaries
all over the place, multicell TSRA clusters from 60 nm S KFST up to
about KSJT, isolated TSRA from 20 nm N KMDD to near KSNK, and a decaying
MCS near KROW with additional development occurring south near KATS.
Examination of WV imagery indicates the axis of a midlevel shortwave
trough trending WSW-ENE from near KELP through KSWW to KDFW. This trough
is slowly sagging southward and will have an impact on area terminals
through at least sunrise. Deep layer ascent occurring ahead of
the shortwave trough is acting on significant midlevel moisture to
create conditions favorable for continued southeastward propagation
of the multicell clusters as well as additional TSRA development just
about anywhere.

So, what does all this mean in English? Through about noon and outside
of TSRA, look for VFR conditions to prevail with mid and high level
cloud decks. INVOF TSRA, expect gusty winds to maybe 35 kts with
FQT LTGCG and ceilings staying VFR, although visibilities in RA may
fall to AOB 2SM in storm cores. There is also the potential for hybrid
microbursts with the activity this morning.

Surface winds will be chaotic given the TSRA activity but should
gradually become easterly to southeasterly by midday. Drier air
behind the shortwave trough should keep TSRA activity away from
KHOB, KINK, KMAF, and KPEQ, while isolated TSRA may affect KCNM
and KFST sometime in the 21Z-02Z time range. Confidence is too low
right now to include mention of TSRA at these locations, but it
bears watching nonetheless. After 02Z, look for TSRA coverage to
be down across the Big Bend and upper trans-Pecos regions of west
Texas with VFR conditions and light southeasterly winds Sunday
night at all terminals.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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136
FXUS64 KMAF 162316
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible at TAF locations this evening.
Expect gusty winds in and near thunderstorms that develop. VFR
conditions are forecast through the period. Isolated thunderstorms
will again be possible on Sunday with locations to the west and
south having better thunderstorm chances.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

..Updated preliminary point temps/pops...

Upper ridge will remain over the region through the week and does
not appear to be going away anytime soon.  Models do develop a cut
off low off CA coast next week but it does not look to help us much.
The low weakens as it moves east passing over the top of the ridge.
So overall expect little day to day change in wx pattern this week.

Northwest flow around the ridge has allowed a shortwave to track
down across the area today resulting in scattered showers across the
Permian basin this morning and an increase in cloud cover.  These
clouds have lingered into the afternoon and kept temps down across
most of the region with upper 90s observed closer to the Rio
Grande.  Warmer temperatures should return on Sunday with above
normal readings expected most of the week.

Afternoon storms have developed over the mountains as day time
heating kicked in.  These will continue into the evening hours
primarily south of the Pecos river but could be a few showers/storms
across the northern half of the area.  A weak surface trough will
remain across the area and could help a little in storm development.
Will keep highest pops over the Davis Mtns... Marfa Plateau... and
northern Brewster county as afternoon storms look to be a good bet
there next several days.  Locally heavy rain will be possible
tonight and will highlight in HWO but storms are moving which should
lessen flash flood threat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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414
FXUS64 KMAF 161716
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1158 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers are across the area this afternoon and additional
development of showers and thunderstorms is expected.  Did not
include convection in the TAFs at this time but will continue to
monitor and amend as needed.  Winds will be mostly light with
northerly winds expected for CNM and HOB and southerly winds
expected for the other terminals.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
There does not appear to be too much change from last nights model
runs with subtropical ridge centered across AZ and minor shrtwv
trof within NW-N flow aloft. Convection has been moving across the
area early this morning with modest LLJ impinging on outflow
boundary, but it does look to be slowly waning and exiting to the
east. Based on deterministic model QPFs including SREF QPF
probabilities there will be good opportunity for at least scattered
PoPs from the Davis Mtns ene thru the PB during max heating. This is
pretty well handled in current fcst and have only trend up PoPs
slightly and moreso in the Davis Mtns. NAM12 continues to reflect a
cold pool in temp field across the PB after 21Z so we`ll have to
watch for higher PoPs. Mid and upper 20C 85h temps continue to
support above normal temps but again convection could alter this to
be a little cooler. 5h heights fall slightly Sunday and 85h temps
are a little cooler too while axis of higher precip will shift swd
into the Lower Trans Pecos. Only minor changes are needed to account
for this. Drying trend will continue into Monday/Tuesday however
5h/7h heights are seasonally low suggesting near to just below
seasonal temperatures. As an upper low moves into/near SoCal
Wednesday the monsoonal moist axis will shift ewd making it into the
far wrn CWFA, thus warranting an increase in PoPs there and probably
moreso Thur. 7h temps in the extended forecast are a little above
normal per NAEFS, but high temperatures will be somewhat nice
compared to what they could be this time of yr. There are no
anomalies seen Fri/Sat in the temperature/height/mstr fields in the
GEFS/NAEFS ensemble data.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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515
FXUS64 KMAF 161139
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
639 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 16/12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The forecast is somewhat complicated this morning. The air mass
over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico remains moist and
marginally unstable. A complex interaction of outflow boundaries
and southward-progressing upper level gravity waves has produced
elevated TSRA now about 40 nm SE KFST. Mid and high-level clouds
will retard isolation only slightly, and with heating will come
a better chance for TSRA development later this afternoon and
evening. The remnants of a MCS presently over northwestern
Chihuahua will progress eastward across far west Texas today,
while daytime heating over the mountains will produce buildups
by late morning. The net result will be an uptick in scattered
TSRA development by early-mid afternoon over the mountains, with
this activity spreading east during the afternoon and early
evening hours. INVOF TSRA activity expect MVFR conditions in RA
with wind gusts near 40 kts.  There`s also some potential for hybrid
microbursts with this activity. Convection rooted in the PBL should
die off after sunset. Much like last night and early this
morning, interactions of outflow boundaries with a modest low
level jet and maybe tickled by gravity waves, isolated elevated
TSRA may continue through the early morning hours Sunday.

We`ve gone ahead and introduced a PROB30 group in the mid to late
afternoon hours at KCNM, KFST, KINK, and KPEQ.  At KMAF and KHOB,
it`ll be more wait-and-see, depending on how TSRA evolves off the
mountains. Variable winds under 10 kts will become southeasterly
to southerly this morning, and perhaps gusty at KFST and KMAF
where a decaying LLJ mixes down to the surface. Skies outside of
TSRA will be VFR, with several mid and high level decks expected.
After TSRA develops and cold pools spread outward from them, wind
directions will be chaotic. Have maintained an expected wind
vector after 00Z, but this will all be subject to change.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
There does not appear to be too much change from last nights model
runs with subtropical ridge centered across AZ and minor shrtwv
trof within NW-N flow aloft. Convection has been moving across the
area early this morning with modest LLJ impinging on outflow
boundary, but it does look to be slowly waning and exiting to the
east. Based on deterministic model QPFs including SREF QPF probabilities
there will be good opportunity for at least scattered PoPs from
the Davis Mtns ene thru the PB during max heating. This is pretty
well handled in current fcst and have only trend up PoPs slightly
and moreso in the Davis Mtns. NAM12 continues to reflect a cold pool
in temp field across the PB after 21Z so we`ll have to watch for
higher PoPs. Mid and upper 20C 85h temps continue to support above
normal temps but again convection could alter this to be a little
cooler. 5h heights fall slightly Sunday and 85h temps are a little
cooler too while axis of higher precip will shift swd into the Lower
Trans Pecos. Only minor changes are needed to account for this.
Drying trend will continue into Monday/Tuesday however 5h/7h
heights are seasonally low suggesting near to just below seasonal
temperatures. As an upper low moves into/near SoCal Wednesday the
monsoonal moist axis will shift ewd making it into the far wrn
CWFA, thus warranting an increase in PoPs there and probably
moreso Thur. 7h temps in the extended forecast are a little above
normal per NAEFS, but high temperatures will be somewhat nice
compared to what they could be this time of yr. There are no
anomalies seen Fri/Sat in the temperature/height/mstr fields in
the GEFS/NAEFS ensemble data.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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636
FXUS64 KMAF 160602
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
102 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 16/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

BREAKING NEWS: starting to see -CGs just south of KINK, and will
update KINK shortly to add a TEMPO for TSRA until about 08Z.

Somewhat of a complicated forecast this morning. We`re starting to
see cooling cloud tops across the Permian Basin. One area to TSRA
about 80 nm N KMAF looks to be intensifying and building a bit to
the southwest, likely the result of an interaction between an outflow
boundary stretching from KATS eastward to near KSNK and a modest low
level jet. The air mass across all terminals remains very moist and
slightly unstable, and so while convective development may occur
INVOF any terminal this morning, the chances are probably 1:3, too
low to include a TEMPO group at this time. We did add a TEMPO at
KPEQ until 08Z as there`s a better chance of development given
satellite and radar trends.

Another round of TSRA appears likely this afternoon and evening,
with the best chances (1:3) stretching from the Davis Mountains
northeastward across KPEQ, KFST, KINK, and KMAF in the 21Z-03Z
time range. Current thinking is that slightly lower probabilities
of TSRA (1:4) impacting KCNM and KHOB will occur in the 20Z-02Z
range. We`re not confident just yet in adding a PROB30 for this
afternoon and evening, but we`ll evaluate later deterministic and
convection-allowing models for trends, and as such don`t be
surprised if the chances of TSRA increase with the 12Z release.

INVOF TSRA expect MVFR visibilities in RA and maybe BLDU. Variable
winds with gusts near 45 kts are likely in and near TSRA. There`s
also some hint in the model soundings for hybrid microbursts.

Outside of TSRA activity expect VFR conditions. The aforementioned
outflow boundary will bring northeasterly winds south to about the
Pecos River before the boundary dissipates later this morning.
Southerly to southeasterly winds will then return, only to become
chaotic with multiple outflow boundaries affecting all terminals
by mid afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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841
FXUS64 KMAF 152348
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014

.UPDATE...

Will send an update to increase PoPs into the Permian Basin this
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Good heating today has led to a modicum of instability over the
forecast area.  Thunderstorms have been developing within the
modestly unstable airmass along a surface trough over New Mexico as
a vorticity maximum slowly rotates around the northern periphery of
retrograding upper ridge.  Think instability will be sufficient for
convection to continue this evening, especially considering a h85
low level jet will strengthen over the Permian Basin and perhaps
prolong convection for a few hours after sunset, if not overnight.
A couple of outflow boundaries will also provide additional low
level foci for thunderstorm development, one currently heading east
into the Permian Basin and the other moving southward into Lea
County.  Will send an update to increase PoPs further east into the
Permian Basin this evening.  PoPs elsewhere appear to be in order.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014/

AVIATION...
Late afternoon storms continue across the west...will continue
mention of TSRA through 03z for all TAF sites except MAF and FST.
Local MVFR vsbys possible in storms. Otherwise prevailing
southerly wind will continue to the east of convective outflows.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014/

This morning, water vapor imagery depicted a plume of moisture
stretching across northern Mexico through eastern New Mexico
into the Texas Panhandle with a shortwave trough moving through
northwest New Mexico. Overnight, this upper trough will slowly
move into southern New Mexico and the South Plains with the
moisture plume shifting southeast ahead of the trough. Models
suggest an MCS developing near a surface trough across the western
panhandle into southeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening.
This system should move south toward the Permian Basin in the
morning. Convection will be largely elevated with limited
instability, but with precipitable water exceeding 1.50" within
the moist plume, locally heavy rain is possible. Convection will
also be possible this afternoon into the evening in the mountains.
Strong, gusty winds are possible with these storms due to a
relatively dry sub-cloud layer as shown by model soundings.

The shortwave and moisture plume will shift further south
Saturday with best chances for thunderstorms in the mountains and
southern Permian Basin. This system will continue to shift
southward Sunday and Monday resulting in decreasing rain chances
from north to south. Afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorms
will remain possible. Chances for rain will dwindle through the
rest of the week as high pressure reasserts its influence over the
region.

Temperatures this weekend will be a little cooler, but still near
seasonal norms largely due to increased cloudiness and
precipitation. Temperatures will return to levels slightly above
normal next week as high pressure builds across the area and
rain chances dwindle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  95  71  90  /  20  30  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              76  95  73  93  /  20  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                72  97  71  95  /  30  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  78 100  76  94  /  20  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  97  73  91  /  20  40  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  88  67  87  /  30  40  40  20
HOBBS NM                   68  95  67  90  /  30  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   61  90  64  85  /  20  40  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  95  72  91  /  20  30  30  20
ODESSA TX                  75  95  73  90  /  20  30  30  20
WINK TX                    75  98  75  92  /  20  40  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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049
FXUS64 KMAF 152334
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Late afternoon storms continue across the west... will continue
mention of TSRA through 03z for all TAF sites except MAF and FST.
Local MVFR vsbys possible in storms. Otherwise prevailing southerly
wind will continue to the east of convective outflows.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
This morning, water vapor imagery depicted a plume of moisture
stretching across northern Mexico through eastern New Mexico
into the Texas Panhandle with a shortwave trough moving through
northwest New Mexico. Overnight, this upper trough will slowly
move into southern New Mexico and the South Plains with the
moisture plume shifting southeast ahead of the trough. Models
suggest an MCS developing near a surface trough across the western
panhandle into southeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening.
This system should move south toward the Permian Basin in the
morning. Convection will be largely elevated with limited
instability, but with precipitable water exceeding 1.50" within
the moist plume, locally heavy rain is possible. Convection will
also be possible this afternoon into the evening in the mountains.
Strong, gusty winds are possible with these storms due to a
relatively dry sub-cloud layer as shown by model soundings.

The shortwave and moisture plume will shift further south
Saturday with best chances for thunderstorms in the mountains and
southern Permian Basin. This system will continue to shift
southward Sunday and Monday resulting in decreasing rain chances
from north to south. Afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorms
will remain possible. Chances for rain will dwindle through the
rest of the week as high pressure reasserts its influence over the
region.

Temperatures this weekend will be a little cooler, but still near
seasonal norms largely due to increased cloudiness and
precipitation. Temperatures will return to levels slightly above
normal next week as high pressure builds across the area and
rain chances dwindle.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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426
FXUS64 KMAF 151726
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level disturbance across New Mexico will drop southeast
late this afternoon and tonight and kick off isolated to
scattered thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas. Confidence is high enough to include a tempo MVFR
group for thunderstorms at the southeast New Mexico terminals KCNM
and KHOB from 22z to 08z. Further east in west Texas, will include a
prob 30 group for VFR conditions in thunderstorms at KINK from
03z to 09z. Further east and southeast, confidence was not high
enough to include any mention ot thunderstorms at any of the other
remaining terminals in west Texas but this will need to be
monitored throughout the evening and overnight.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 15/12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...

In general skies will remain VFR through Saturday morning. A moist
fetch coming up from northern Mexico can be expected overhead through
the next 24 hours, with scattered to broken mid and high cloudiness
likely. This morning, we`ll see some gusty winds to maybe 20 kts at
KMAF, KHOB, and KFST as stronger winds just off the deck mix down
to the surface. Weak disturbances within the moist fetch along
with daytime heating will make for an unstable atmosphere, and
buildups over the mountains will be likely by early afternoon.
Some of these will mature into TSRA, and at least ISOLD coverage
is forecast at all terminals by late afternoon. While the best
chances for TSRA will be at KCNM roughly in the 21Z-03Z time
range, our confidence in TSRA impacting KCMN is not high enough
right now to include a PROB30. As we get a better idea of
convective evolution through the day, we`ll update as necessary.
In and around TSRA this afternoon through tonight, look for gusty
winds to maybe 45 mph along with frequent cloud-to- ground
lightning strikes and localized MVFR conditions in RA. May even
see localized MVFR visibilities in BLDU as well. We ought to see
an overall decrease in TSRA coverage after 06Z tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Subtropical ridge axis will be far enough w today so that a slow
moving shrtwv trof will have a chance to drop sewd in the nw flow
aloft. This will also allow for the mid level theta-e ridge axis
to move ewd and is expected to stretch from SW NM into TX Panhandle.
As such PoPs will be favored in close proximity to said features.
NAM12 sounding at CNM shows high based convection with gusty winds
a concern. NAM/ECMWF is "wetter" than GFS and will opt side a
little closer to METMOS with high end slight chc/low end chc PoPs
across the w-nw. Temperatures still be above normal today, but if
convection forms early enough it will be a little cooler across SE
NM/Upper Trans Pecos. We will opt to keep lingering slght chc PoPs
into the night as well. Pattern continues to play out Saturday
with said mid level theta-e ridge/weakness in height field slowly
drifting sewd and NAM12 staying in convective mode with generous
QPF. Based on the pattern it does make some sense for precip to
be generated. There could be outflow boundaries from Friday`s
storms that serve as focus? Should be better coverage of SHRA/TSRA
across the mtns on Saturday and just a little cooler too. On
Sunday NAM/ECMWF keep said mid level theta-e ridge across the e-s
CWFA while GFS pushes it just out of the CWFA. Mid level flow will
mostly be from the NE by Sunday and will orient the PoPs closer to
consensus theta-e ridge position with temperatures steady to just
slightly cooler. Models diverge thereafter with ECMWF remaining
more moist with a prominent weakness evident in height field through
Friday. Not so sure about this, but there is general agreement in
GEFS/NAFES that a western US trof will persist. Hard to say what
this means for us, but again ECMWF is optimistically cooler/wetter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 98  71  94  72  /  10  20  30  30
BIG SPRING TX             102  76  95  76  /  10  10  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                97  72  96  71  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 104  79  98  78  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  74  96  74  /  10  20  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  69  88  68  /  20  20  40  40
HOBBS NM                   96  68  94  68  /  20  20  30  30
MARFA TX                   88  63  86  62  /  10  20  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  75  96  75  /  10  20  30  30
ODESSA TX                  98  76  95  75  /  10  20  30  30
WINK TX                    99  74  98  74  /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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680
FXUS64 KMAF 151140
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
640 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 15/12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

In general skies will remain VFR through Saturday morning. A moist
fetch coming up from northern Mexico can be expected overhead through
the next 24 hours, with scattered to broken mid and high cloudiness
likely. This morning, we`ll see some gusty winds to maybe 20 kts at
KMAF, KHOB, and KFST as stronger winds just off the deck mix down
to the surface. Weak disturbances within the moist fetch along
with daytime heating will make for an unstable atmosphere, and
buildups over the mountains will be likely by early afternoon.
Some of these will mature into TSRA, and at least ISOLD coverage
is forecast at all terminals by late afternoon. While the best
chances for TSRA will be at KCNM roughly in the 21Z-03Z time
range, our confidence in TSRA impacting KCMN is not high enough
right now to include a PROB30. As we get a better idea of
convective evolution through the day, we`ll update as necessary.
In and around TSRA this afternoon through tonight, look for gusty
winds to maybe 45 mph along with frequent cloud-to- ground
lightning strikes and localized MVFR conditions in RA. May even
see localized MVFR visibilities in BLDU as well. We ought to see
an overall decrease in TSRA coverage after 06Z tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Subtropical ridge axis will be far enough w today so that a slow
moving shrtwv trof will have a chance to drop sewd in the nw flow
aloft. This will also allow for the mid level theta-e ridge axis
to move ewd and is expected to stretch from SW NM into TX Panhandle.
As such PoPs will be favored in close proximity to said features.
NAM12 sounding at CNM shows high based convection with gusty winds
a concern. NAM/ECMWF is "wetter" than GFS and will opt side a
little closer to METMOS with high end slight chc/low end chc PoPs
across the w-nw. Temperatures still be above normal today, but if
convection forms early enough it will be a little cooler across SE
NM/Upper Trans Pecos. We will opt to keep lingering slght chc PoPs
into the night as well. Pattern continues to play out Saturday
with said mid level theta-e ridge/weakness in height field slowly
drifting sewd and NAM12 staying in convective mode with generous
QPF. Based on the pattern it does make some sense for precip to
be generated. There could be outflow boundaries from Friday`s
storms that serve as focus? Should be better coverage of SHRA/TSRA
across the mtns on Saturday and just a little cooler too. On
Sunday NAM/ECMWF keep said mid level theta-e ridge across the e-s
CWFA while GFS pushes it just out of the CWFA. Mid level flow will
mostly be from the NE by Sunday and will orient the PoPs closer to
consensus theta-e ridge position with temperatures steady to just
slightly cooler. Models diverge thereafter with ECMWF remaining
more moist with a prominent weakness evident in height field through
Friday. Not so sure about this, but there is general agreement in
GEFS/NAFES that a western US trof will persist. Hard to say what
this means for us, but again ECMWF is optimistically cooler/wetter.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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002
FXUS64 KMAF 150548
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 15/06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Extensive high-level convective debris remains over all terminals this
morning. We expect the cirrus to become scattered at or a little after
sunrise. Forecast soundings suggest that a modest LLJ (20 to 25 kts)
just off the deck will mix down after sunrise, and this will cause
winds to gust to maybe 20 kts at KHOB, KMAF, and KFST. Expect a
scattered CU field to develop around noon at most terminals, with bases
in the 9K-11K range. By mid afternoon, there is the potential for TSRA
at KCNM and maybe KHOB. However, our confidence in this scenario
is too low for us to mention in the TAFs. As new guidance becomes
available (and we get closer to mid afternoon!), our confidence
may increase. And should TSRA develop, expect gusty winds to perhaps
45 mph along with areas of blowing dust below 3 kft restricting
visibility to below 3 nm.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70
231
FXUS64 KMAF 142311
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

It appears KCNM has the only shot at convection this evening, so
will include there until 15/01Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West Texas TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The upper level ridge centered overhead today will slowly edge west
into the weekend. This will open the door for at least isolated
showers and storms across the area beginning Friday.

For today we are seeing some isolated storms over the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains just due to daytime heating. By tomorrow,
convective activity will likely be on the uptick over western
portions of the area as a sfc trough develops over SE NM and
combines with a mid level disturbance. A similar setup is forecast
for Saturday as the disturbance lingers and the upper ridge moves
a bit further west. Storms may reach into the Permian Basin
Saturday as the sfc trough moves east. Temperatures will be very
hot over the next several days which should allow for a very dry
sub cloud layer. This will create the potential for gusty winds in
and near any of the storms.

Even though we are looking at fairly hot temperatures Friday into
the weekend, models have backed off on the widespread 100`s they had
earlier this week. Will stay close to guidance which keeps most
locations in the mid to upper 90s with the mountains staying near
90. Mid level temperatures begin to cool slightly next week as the
ridge weakens. This will allow highs to come back down closer to
normal for mid to late August.

Next week looks more interesting with the ECMWF continuing to
fracture the ridge with a weakness developing overhead. This
solution would likely lead to widespread precip. The GFS is
holding on to a stronger ridge with much less in the way of
precip. Will not change much just yet in the extended and wait for
the models to converge a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  97  72  95  /   0  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              73 101  75 100  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                72  97  72  96  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  75 103  77 103  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  97  74  96  /   0  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  87  68  85  /  20  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   68  94  68  94  /  10  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   58  89  63  88  /  10  10  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  99  74  98  /   0  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  73  98  75  98  /   0  10  20  20
WINK TX                    73 100  74  98  /   0  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/29

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