Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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830
FXUS64 KMAF 282316
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
516 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Westerly winds will decouple and diminish through 29/02Z, while
VFR conditions prevail through tonight and Tuesday.  A couple of
terminals may see winds briefly spike up this evening, but winds
should not last as temperatures continue to cool.  West to
northwest surface winds will increase again, but generally after
29/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

WV imagery shows the upper trough has cleared West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, but brisk winds trail this feature, as
evidenced by sfc obs and cloud streets/mtn waves on vis imagery.
These clouds are once again hampering mixing, making the wind
forecast over the next few hours difficult.  Both the NAM and GFS
keep H7 winds up well into the evening hours, but these drop off
rapidly after 06Z.  Winds on the plains have been barely into
advisory criteria the last few hours, and lower lvl winds should
decouple rapidly w/sunset, so we`ll let the advisories expire as
scheduled, and keep the warning for the higher elevations going thru
06Z.

Despite the arrival of the Pac front, temps still managed to creep
above normal in many locations this afternoon.  West winds have
scoured all lower level moisture east, but incoming cloud cover and
west winds overnight should keep temps from falling much further
than they did last night.  NW flow aloft will continue Tuesday,
w/temps dropping below normal Tuesday afternoon, before a secondary,
dry trough drops a cold front in overnight, for a hard freeze
Wednesday morning NW zones.  Temps bottom out Wednesday afternoon
before return flow resumes and pushes temps back to near-normal
Thursday.  Then the real fun begins.

Long range models are still digging a major upper trough down the
west coast, to roughly the Four Corners by 12Z Friday.  From there
they begin diverging significantly, w/one solution remaining open
and ejecting into central Texas by 00Z Sunday, whereas others close
off this feature over the Gulf of California.  On Sunday, the GFS
over the Gulf of California begins moving up thru Texas, whereas the
DGEX lags by about 18 hours.  In other words, confidence is very low
in the evolution of this system attm.  However, a blend suggests
rain chances increasing beginning Friday thru Saturday night, then
tapering off thru Monday.  If the lagging models pan out, rain
chances will likely continue into next week.  Attm, temps don`t
look to get cold enough for frozen precip to factor in, but this
could easily change.  Stayed tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  61  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  57  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  69  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  62  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  47  27  48 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          36  53  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  56  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  59  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  58  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  60  28  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

80/44

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