Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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241
FXUS64 KMAF 240931
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
431 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours, w/buffer soundings
keeping all cigs VFR. Buffer soundings develop a widespread cu
field 16-19Z, w/bases 2.9-5 kft agl, topped by plenty of mid/hi
cloud. This will hinder development of MVFR fog, and this will
need to be monitored.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An overall drying trend continues today even though we will see a
few showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon.
Flooding along the Pecos River also continues (see flood section
below).

The main feature of interest today into the weekend is an upper low
that is parked over the Permian Basin. This low will likely remain
over the area for a few days as high pressure blocks it from moving
east and an upper ridge builds to our west. This feature will
combine with a weak sfc trough over the area to bring at least
isolated convection to parts of the region each afternoon through
Saturday. Localized flooding will be possible with any storm as
the ground is very saturated areawide. By Sunday the upper low
will finally begin to move as a deep trough to the west kicks it
out. Rain chances will diminish (except for possibly the Davis
Mountains) and temperatures will rise back to AOA normal values
Sunday and Monday.

Long range models agree that another trough will dig across the West
next week. This may bring our next cold front and better rain
chances to the area.

Pecos River Flood Update...

The Red Bluff Reservoir spillway discharge has crested and will
begin to fall very slowly. The Pecos River near Orla is cresting
now and will begin a slow fall later today or tonight. River
levels have fallen this morning at Pecos, but will slowly rise
again through Friday as the next crest makes its way down the
river. This crest appears to be very similar to the one that
affected the city of Pecos Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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