Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221124

524 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

See 12Z aviation discussion below.


MVFR CIG/VIS has been patchy this morning. Conditions may bounce
up and down for the first few hours of the TAF before remaining
VFR from around 16Z onward. Scattered showers are developing and a
few lightning strikes are possible, but the chances for TS on
station at any TAF site are too low to mention at this time.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
northwest Mexico will be the main feature of interest today.
This system will approach the Big Bend by this evening allowing
an anomalous late season low level moisture surge northwestward
from the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive
upper divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing cold front. The best chance of thunderstorms (good
chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin this
morning. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for
the longest period of time ahead of the upper system. Some of
these storms could be on the strong side in the eastern Permian
Basin, producing hail and gusty winds given elevated capes of
over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air aloft
and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will decrease
this afternoon as the system pushes east toward west central

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday.
Northwest 700 millibar flow of 50 knots is forecast in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains on Sunday and combined with a
tight surface pressure gradient could produce strong winds.
A high wind watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains
and the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet Sunday through mid
Sunday evening.

Below normal temperatures may return to the forecast area
next weekend.


NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains.




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