Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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847
FXUS64 KMAF 301124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
SE surface winds less than 10kts will turn to the sw mid morning
and increase 10-15kts as trof develops ahead of front. Opted to
include PROB30 TSRA at MAF/INK/PEQ/HOB 22Z-03Z with strong daytime
heating ahead of front and better mstr/instability in its wake.
Storms that may for s of front will be especially capable of gusty
downburst type winds. Front will be thru all TAFs by 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the eastern conus and a shortwave is
moving over Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle on the backside of this
trough.  Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across the
above mentioned area as a result of the increased lift.  A cold
front associated with this shortwave will move south toward the CWA
today.  A surface trough will be present this afternoon ahead of the
front so high temperatures will warm into the triple digits for many
places.  There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the CWA as the front approaches.

The front will move through the CWA on Thursday with temperatures
behind the front cooling to below normal values.  Chances of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday with the best chances
being across the higher terrain near the edge of the front.
Precipitation will still be present on Friday in roughly the same
areas as the region remains under northwest flow aloft.  Temperatures
will gradually start to warm up on Friday as the surface high moves
away from the region.  Conditions will be similar on Saturday and on
through the beginning of next week with below normal temperatures
and convection remaining across the area.  Upper ridging will take
shape over the region with precipitation remaining across the higher
terrain the beginning of next week.  During the middle part of next
week, a trough will move over the Upper Midwest with another cold
front approaching the area.  This will contribute to more showers
and thunderstorms developing near the front.  Temperatures are
expected to be near or below normal values in the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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