Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

222
FXUS64 KMAF 210502
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1202 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
For the next few hours will monitor KHOB and especially KCNM for
the potential for renewed thunderstorm development, but will leave
storms out of the TAFS for now at those locations. For later
today, intense heating along a surface trough along the eastern
slopes of the mountains will spark more thunderstorms this afternoon
across the mountains. These storms are expected to move east into
the southeast New Mexico Plains and upper Trans Pecos region of
west Texas late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Confidence was high
enough to include PROB30 groups for VFR conditions in thunderstorms
at KCNM and KHOB in the 21z Tuesday to 03z Wednesday time frame.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015/

UPDATE...
Sent a quick update to expand rain chances east to include much
of the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos overnight tonight.
Currently have mountain convection diminishing for the most part
this evening however an outflow boundary has been marching east
with thunderstorms developing and persisting along this boundary.
This boundary/activity, currently oriented from a Andrews to
Notrees to just east of Ft. Stockton line, looks to continue
pushing east (supported by several hi-res models) for at least
the next several hours or so. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast looks to be on track for tonight and no other changes
were made at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Short term concerns are focused around TSRA across the w. Based on
radar trends will opt to go with TEMPO groups at FST/HOB only.
Large T/Td spreads continue to suggest gusty winds are possible.
There is a well defined outflow boundary moving in from the w which
could serve as focus for additional development and we will
continue to watch its progression. Other VFR overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are already developing this afternoon
from the Big Bend into southeastern New Mexico. Very little shear
should prevent these storms from becoming severe though sub-severe
downburst winds could be seen in the stronger storms thanks to
dry air at the surface as indicated by dewpoint depressions
approaching 50 degrees. Instability ahead of an upper trough off
the California coast is being drawn up into west Texas providing
greater areal coverage than yesterday. Storms will diminish
overnight but a few could persist into the early morning hours.

More storms will develop tomorrow with the NAM indicating an
outflow boundary pushing into the northern Permian Basin from
convection in the Texas Panhandle. This boundary may serve as a
focus for storms and give the western Permian Basin a chance at
receiving rainfall that has so far remained to the west.
Increasing clouds from these storms could affect high
temperatures, but light winds may prevent clouds from spreading
much so will keep forecast highs near MAV guidance. MET guidance
continues its streak of being too cool at MAF and other sites in
the CWA. Scattered storms will continue once again into Wednesday
but by Thursday the upper high will begin retrograding back to the
west, limiting storm coverage to the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains
and surrounding plains.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.