Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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982
FXUS64 KMAF 162309
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds will remain generally light and easterly across southeast
New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals through Wednesday
afternoon. VFR conditions are expected across the area until at
least 09Z when scattered low clouds will develop at MAF. Current
forecasts do not introduce low ceilings at HOB, INK or FST, though
these locations will need to be monitored in case moisture return
is greater than currently expected. These clouds will lower
producing a low ceiling at times from 12Z to 15Z at MAF resulting
in IFR conditions. Other terminals are expected to see periods of
scattered clouds below 1000 ft generally between 10Z and 15Z.
After 15Z, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry air continues to stream overhead in SW flow aloft today, as
seen on WV satellite imagery, resulting in mostly sunny skies and
temperatures steadily warming into the upper 80s to low 90s this
afternoon. Mid/upper level shear axis remains parked just east of
the forecast area today however upper ridging across the SE ConUS
will slowly build westward tonight, shifting the shear axis back
west. In addition, moisture will begin to increase significantly
tonight and by this time tomorrow, dew points will be a good 10
degrees higher across the eastern CWA than what we are seeing
this afternoon. As a result of increased moisture and lift,
thunderstorm chances will increase across SE zones late
tonight/Wednesday, slowly spreading NW through Thursday. Best
chances look to occur on Thursday along and east of a Seminole to
Pecos to Marfa line however if the shear axis shifts farther west,
so will rain chances. Locally heavy rainfall will be of some
concern, particularly across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos on Thursday, as PWATs increase to the 1.5-2" range. Cloud
cover and increased rain chances should hold high temperatures in
the 80s most locations during this time.

Looks like we may get a little break in the rain Friday and Saturday
with just some lower end chances across the east and south. The lull
in precip will give temperatures a chance to warm up a bit with
highs back in the 90s for most locations by Saturday. This warming
trend will be cut short with the arrival of a cold front sometime
Sunday, resulting in the return of cooler temperatures and increased
rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  87  68  84 /  10  30  30  50
Carlsbad                       64  90  65  90 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         71  86  71  87 /  20  40  50  50
Fort Stockton                  66  86  67  86 /  10  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 62  82  62  83 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          61  88  63  86 /   0  10  10  20
Marfa                          57  80  59  80 /   0  20  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           66  87  68  85 /  10  30  30  40
Odessa                         66  86  68  85 /   0  20  30  40
Wink                           66  90  68  89 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/05

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