Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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193
FXUS64 KMAF 272344
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of light rain and snow will continue for the FST and PEQ
terminals.  Ceilings for these areas will remain low.  Clearing
skies are expected further north where the precipitation has ended.
The clearing skies may bring in more low ceilings or fog around 12z
Sunday morning.  Low ceilings/fog should be out of the area by 18z
Sunday with mostly clear skies for the rest of the day.  Winds will
become light and variable overnight with elevated southwest winds
returning Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Current observations continue to show intermittent light snow
continuing over portions of southeast New Mexico and the western
Permian Basin. Significant snows have ended over the Guadalupe
Mountains and across Lea County New Mexico.  The HRRR and other
models suggest that lingering precipitation over these northern
areas will continue to wane while redevelopment will occur over the
higher elevations of SW Texas beginning later this afternoon into
evening.

While indications are that the positive tilt upper trough is
weakening/filling as it moves across the area, which is a negative
against significant snow, current QFP for this evening and BUFKIT
sounding interrogation suggests that snow redevelopment is
likely...especially over the higher elevations of SW Texas.  The
Marfa Plateau and the Davis Mountains could see significant snowfall
tonight.  The western half of Pecos county could also see some minor
snow accumulations.  For now, will issue a winter storm warning for
heavy snow for higher elevations of Presidio, Jeff Davis, and
Brewster County.  A winter weather advisory will be issued for Pecos
County.  Both the warning and advisory will be extended into the
overnight period.  However, most of the activity will probably occur
this evening.

As this upper trough rapidly exits the area tomorrow morning, zonal
upper flow is expected.  Surface lee trough development just east of
the Rockies will result in a quick warmup for our area tomorrow and
Monday.  However, a significant cool down is forecast for later
Monday into Tuesday.  The big question for now is what type of
precipitation will fall next week.  With shallow cold air in place
and an expected elevated warm later, indications are that freezing
drizzle will the predominant precipitation type most of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Pecos.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 3 AM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

99

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