Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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106
FXUS64 KMAF 221018
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
418 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CST Monday...A taste of winter will be
coming to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico tonight.

Water vapor imagery and GOES High Density winds are showing a
shortwave and associated jet max diving southeast through the
Bitterroot/Blue Mtns of Eastern WA and Idaho. This feature will
move rapidly southeast and deepen the trof in the central US.
After another dry day with above normal temps a cold front
associated with the trof will move south into the Southern Plains
tonight. The NAM and especially the ECMWF continue to be wetter
and colder with this system. Rain showers will develop this
evening...mainly north and east of the Pecos River and spread
south overnight. Model fcst soundings indc the precip changing to
snow showers in northern Lea County after midnight...with a mix of
rain/snow showers in the Northwest Permian Basin down to a
Hobbs/Carlsbad line. With the ground warm would not expect any
snow accumulation on roadways...but there could be a dusting on
grassy surfaces and overpasses in Northern Lea County. The threat
of showers continues on Tuesday...mainly in the morning. Showers
could make as far south as the Davis Mtns but the Rio Grande
Valley and most of Big Bend will remain dry. Forecast soundings
indc it could be cold enough Tue morning for a mix of rain/snow
showers down to a Midland/Wink line. It should be cold enough for
snow showers in the higher elevations of the Davis Mtns.

The cold airmass sticks around Tuesday night/Wednesday with lows
mainly in the 20s and aftn highs in the 50s. Dry weather with
above normal temps are expected on Christmas Day as ridging moves
over the Plains. The next shortwave moves from Northern CA into
the Rockies on Friday. Temps on Friday will be tricky and could be
warmer than the current forecast. Another cold front dives south
into the CWA Sat bringing colder temps. The ECMWF is much stronger
than the GFS keeping Sat highs in the 40s to mid 50s with the
threat of showers. For now...have made little change to the
extended keeping the weekend dry with near normal temps. Zonal
flow will keep the CWA dry with mild temps next Sunday and Monday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  34  45  27  /   0  60  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              67  38  46  29  /   0  50  40   0
CARLSBAD NM                69  36  45  24  /   0  30  20   0
DRYDEN TX                  72  41  50  31  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  39  45  29  /   0  20  40   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  32  39  26  /   0  10  20   0
HOBBS NM                   65  31  44  24  /   0  60  30   0
MARFA TX                   66  36  41  14  /   0  10  20   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  34  46  25  /   0  50  40   0
ODESSA TX                  69  35  46  28  /   0  40  40   0
WINK TX                    72  37  47  26  /   0  40  40   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.


&&

$$

80/33

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004
FXUS64 KMAF 220448
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1048 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A breezy VFR night across all terminals this evening. Westerly
winds at the surface will forbid a return to MVFR or less
cigs/vsbys, and all we`re expecting tonight is sct-bkn cirrus.
Winds will increase a bit in the mid morning hours as a pre-
frontal trough passes through. After sunset, winds will slack off
a bit. Will keep them southwesterly for now, but should veer
gradually to a northerly direction after this TAF period. Look for
deteriorating wx conditions after 06Z tomorrow night as a upper
level storm system approaches the southern High Plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to issue a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains
tonight.

DISCUSSION...

Northwest flow aloft will continue to increase over the region
tonight and Monday as an ua trough deepens over the central U.S.
Plains.  Although the H7 wind direction, northwesterly, is not
favorable for strong winds in Guadalupe Pass, these mid level winds
appear strong enough for high winds to occur in the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.  In addition, the surface
pressure gradient has increased across the Guadalupe Mountains and
has yielded high winds through Guadalupe Pass for the last couple of
hours.  Since the above is expected to continue through the night,
will issue a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains tonight.
The warning will be in effect until 4 am CST, which will allow
the next shift to assess whether the warning will need to continue
through Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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334
FXUS64 KMAF 220243
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
843 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to issue a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Northwest flow aloft will continue to increase over the region
tonight and Monday as an ua trough deepens over the central U.S.
Plains.  Although the H7 wind direction, northwesterly, is not
favorable for strong winds in Guadalupe Pass, these mid level winds
appear strong enough for high winds to occur in the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.  In addition, the surface
pressure gradient has increased across the Guadalupe Mountains and
has yielded high winds through Guadalupe Pass for the last couple of
hours.  Since the above is expected to continue through the night,
will issue a High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains tonight.
The warning will be in effect until 4 am CST, which will allow
the next shift to assess whether the warning will need to continue
through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  68  34  46  /   0   0  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              45  67  37  47  /   0   0  40  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  70  36  46  /   0   0  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  45  76  47  51  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           48  73  42  46  /   0   0  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  62  36  40  /   0   0  10  20
HOBBS NM                   43  66  31  45  /   0   0  50  20
MARFA TX                   38  65  38  42  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    44  69  35  47  /   0   0  30  20
ODESSA TX                  45  69  36  47  /   0   0  30  20
WINK TX                    44  72  37  48  /   0   0  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM MST Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$


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228
FXUS64 KMAF 212351
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderately strong and gusty gradient winds should subside within
the next few hours. Unlike the past few nights we`ve westerly flow
at the surface and aloft, which will keep fog and low ceilings at
bay. Instead all terminals can expect sct-bkn high clouds
overnight. Winds will increase and veer to the northwest during
the morning hours Monday as a pre-frontal trough moves south
across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Significant
aviation weather will hold off until just after this forecast
period.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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369
FXUS64 KMAF 212054
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
We have seen the last of the fog and low clouds as westerly winds
will keep low level moisture east of the area. Strong west winds
can be expected in the Guadalupe Mountains today but should remain
just below high wind criteria so will not issue a warning at this
time. An upper low will develop over the Central Plains, and a jet
max diving down the Rockies will send a cold front into the area
late Monday into early Tuesday. The jet max will weaken over time,
but early Tuesday it will be strong enough to create enough lift
for precipitation to develop mainly over southeastern New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin. Temperatures support the
possibility for snow or rain mixed with snow especially over Lea
and Gaines counties Tuesday morning though little if any
accumulations are expected. Highs Tuesday afternoon could be
tricky depending on afternoon cloud cover, right now expecting
clouds to scatter in the afternoon allowing for some heating to
occur.

A weakening upper ridge moves across Texas mid-week allowing for
some warming before another trough moves into the Northern Plains
on Friday. This will send another cold front south into the CWA
Friday bringing more cool air for next weekend. The strongest lift
with this trough will remain well north of the area so precip is
expected with this frontal passage.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  68  34  46  /   0   0  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              45  67  37  47  /   0   0  40  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  70  36  46  /   0   0  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  45  76  47  51  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           48  73  42  46  /   0   0  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  62  36  40  /   0   0  10  20
HOBBS NM                   43  66  31  45  /   0   0  50  20
MARFA TX                   38  65  38  42  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    44  69  35  47  /   0   0  30  20
ODESSA TX                  45  69  36  47  /   0   0  30  20
WINK TX                    44  72  37  48  /   0   0  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10

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968
FXUS64 KMAF 211733
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1133 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Surface lee trough development east of the Rockies will result in
southwest to west surface winds at TAF locations. Low clouds and fog
have dissipated making way for VFR conditions. Redevelopment of
fog is not expected later tonight. Increasing high level clouds are expected
across the area Monday morning. However, no aviation impacts are
expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of low ceilings and fog are expected to continue through
mid-morning.  MAF will likely be the last site to improve in
visibility and ceiling.  Winds will be out of the southwest to west
and will be elevated with some gusts this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Sunday...Satl imagery/Sfc obs are
indc low clouds and fog mainly north and east of the Pecos River
and in eastern Pecos/Brewster Counties as well as Terrell County.
There are a few places with dense fog...Hobbs and Wink...but for
the most part fog is patchy. With high clouds beginning to stream
overhead do not think there will be enough dense fog for an
Advisory this morning. Will continue to monitor in case there is a
"sunrise surprise".

A mixed bag of weather is in store for the CWA this week. A
mid/upper trof is north of the CWA and continues to progress east.
Zonal flow will bring warmer temps (5-10 degrees above normal)
today and Monday.

A strong shortwave will dive south down the lee side of the Rockies
Monday night as the mid/upper flow across the country amplifies.
This will drive a cold front south through the CWA. Models are
indc good lift Monday night and have been progressively wetter.
Therefore have bumped up the pops for Monday night a little...but
the duration of the precip should be short. Some locations in the
Trans Pecos and south might not see any precip. With the brunt of
the cold air remaining to the north have kept the precip as
rain...but there could be a little snow mixing in late Monday
night across the northern Permian Basin. As of this time little or
no snow accumulation is expected. Looks like it will be windy late
Monday night thru Guadalupe Pass as the winds turn northeast...but
at this time it looks like the winds will remain below warning
criteria. Other than a few morning showers in the Davis Mountains
dry weather will return Tuesday with cooler temps.

Dry weather is expected the remainder of the week and into next
weekend. Northwest flow aloft will bring a little warming on
Wednesday. Thursday will be even warmer (5-10 degrees above
normal) with zonal flow aloft and downslope southwest winds in the
lower levels. A shortwave will pass north of the CWA on Friday...
driving a dry cold front south through the CWA. This will bring
below normal temps Friday and Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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781
FXUS64 KMAF 211132
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of low ceilings and fog are expected to continue through
mid-morning.  MAF will likely be the last site to improve in
visibility and ceiling.  Winds will be out of the southwest to west
and will be elevated with some gusts this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Sunday...Satl imagery/Sfc obs are
indc low clouds and fog mainly north and east of the Pecos River
and in eastern Pecos/Brewster Counties as well as Terrell County.
There are a few places with dense fog...Hobbs and Wink...but for
the most part fog is patchy. With high clouds beginning to stream
overhead do not think there will be enough dense fog for an
Advisory this morning. Will continue to monitor in case there is a
"sunrise surprise".

A mixed bag of weather is in store for the CWA this week. A
mid/upper trof is north of the CWA and continues to progress east.
Zonal flow will bring warmer temps (5-10 degrees above normal)
today and Monday.

A strong shortwave will dive south down the lee side of the Rockies
Monday night as the mid/upper flow across the country amplifies.
This will drive a cold front south through the CWA. Models are
indc good lift Monday night and have been progressively wetter.
Therefore have bumped up the pops for Monday night a little...but
the duration of the precip should be short. Some locations in the
Trans Pecos and south might not see any precip. With the brunt of
the cold air remaining to the north have kept the precip as
rain...but there could be a little snow mixing in late Monday
night across the northern Permian Basin. As of this time little or
no snow accumulation is expected. Looks like it will be windy late
Monday night thru Guadalupe Pass as the winds turn northeast...but
at this time it looks like the winds will remain below warning
criteria. Other than a few morning showers in the Davis Mountains
dry weather will return Tuesday with cooler temps.

Dry weather is expected the remainder of the week and into next
weekend. Northwest flow aloft will bring a little warming on
Wednesday. Thursday will be even warmer (5-10 degrees above
normal) with zonal flow aloft and downslope southwest winds in the
lower levels. A shortwave will pass north of the CWA on Friday...
driving a dry cold front south through the CWA. This will bring
below normal temps Friday and Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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923
FXUS64 KMAF 211049
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
449 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:15 AM CST Sunday...Satl imagery/Sfc obs are
indc low clouds and fog mainly north and east of the Pecos River
and in eastern Pecos/Brewster Counties as well as Terrell County.
There are a few places with dense fog...Hobbs and Wink...but for
the most part fog is patchy. With high clouds beginning to stream
overhead do not think there will be enough dense fog for an
Advisory this morning. Will continue to monitor in case there is a
"sunrise surprise".

A mixed bag of weather is in store for the CWA this week. A
mid/upper trof is north of the CWA and continues to progress east.
Zonal flow will bring warmer temps (5-10 degrees above normal)
today and Monday.

A strong shortwave will dive south down the lee side of the Rockies
Monday night as the mid/upper flow across the country amplifies.
This will drive a cold front south through the CWA. Models are
indc good lift Monday night and have been progressively wetter.
Therefore have bumped up the pops for Monday night a little...but
the duration of the precip should be short. Some locations in the
Trans Pecos and south might not see any precip. With the brunt of
the cold air remaining to the north have kept the precip as
rain...but there could be a little snow mixing in late Monday
night across the northern Permian Basin. As of this time little or
no snow accumulation is expected. Looks like it will be windy late
Monday night thru Guadalupe Pass as the winds turn northeast...but
at this time it looks like the winds will remain below warning
criteria. Other than a few morning showers in the Davis Mountains
dry weather will return Tuesday with cooler temps.

Dry weather is expected the remainder of the week and into next
weekend. Northwest flow aloft will bring a little warming on
Wednesday. Thursday will be even warmer (5-10 degrees above
normal) with zonal flow aloft and downslope southwest winds in the
lower levels. A shortwave will pass north of the CWA on Friday...
driving a dry cold front south through the CWA. This will bring
below normal temps Friday and Saturday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  42  68  34  /   0   0   0  40
BIG SPRING TX              66  42  71  36  /   0   0   0  40
CARLSBAD NM                66  43  68  37  /   0   0   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  68  43  73  44  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  45  72  38  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  39  60  32  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   62  39  67  30  /   0   0   0  40
MARFA TX                   62  32  64  33  /   0   0   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    65  42  71  36  /   0   0   0  40
ODESSA TX                  65  43  68  36  /   0   0   0  40
WINK TX                    67  38  73  37  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/33

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603
FXUS64 KMAF 210405
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1005 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The primary forecast challenge this period is that of low ceilings
and fog expected to impact KMAF, KINK, KPEQ, and KHOB. An area of
stratus is currently advecting NNW through the Pecos River Valley,
thus, expect KMAF to drop to MVFR conditions by the start of the
forecast period. KINK, KHOB, and KPEQ should follow between
08-10Z. There is a window from 10-14Z when IFR ceilings are
possible at KMAF and KINK, though KPEQ and KHOB look to remain low-
end MVFR. An improvement to VFR conditions at all TAF sites is
expected by mid-morning Sunday, as winds shift to the west and
increase, becoming gusty through the afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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107
FXUS64 KMAF 202352
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

The main forecast challenge this period will be another round of
low clouds/fog expected to develop across the area overnight,
affecting KMAF by 06Z, and KHOB, KINK, and KPEQ by 10Z. Once
again, IFR/LIFR conditions are possible, mainly between 10-14Z.
Models indicate a sharp gradient on the edge of the low clouds
tonight/early Sunday, with KFST and KCNM expected to remain VFR
for the duration. Conditions should improve to VFR for all TAF
sites by mid-morning on Sunday as winds increase from the west,
becoming gusty by early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Fog has dissipated and low clouds have retreated east of Midland,
but expect a return once again tonight. Fog could become dense to
less than a mile visibility and have put dense fog in the
forecast, but confidence is not high enough to issue an advisory
at this time. Later shifts can monitor this and issue if deemed
necessary.

The upper pattern becomes more amplified by Tuesday as an upper
level low develops over the northern plains. This will send a cold
front into the CWA Tuesday morning and drop high temperatures
about 20 degrees. Models are showing a brief shot of lift and
moisture around sunrise Tuesday morning which could give a chance
for precipitation mainly in southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin. The lift coincides with mid level
temperatures of -10C to -15C which is very good for dendritic
growth, so there may be a chance for rain to mix or change over to
snow in areas where the surface temperatures are cold
enough...most likely in Lea, Gaines, Andrews, and Dawson counties.
The lift will be brief and moisture not very deep so significant
accumulations are not expected though a dusting is possible.

Weak ridging follows Wednesday and Thursday but another upper
troughs drops into the Central Plains Friday bringing another cold
front and a return of colder temperatures. This trough will be
weaker than the first so no precipitation is expected with this
frontal passage.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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066
FXUS64 KMAF 202036
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Fog has dissipated and low clouds have retreated east of Midland,
but expect a return once again tonight. Fog could become dense to
less than a mile visibility and have put dense fog in the
forecast, but confidence is not high enough to issue an advisory
at this time. Later shifts can monitor this and issue if deemed
necessary.

The upper pattern becomes more amplified by Tuesday as an upper
level low develops over the northern plains. This will send a cold
front into the CWA Tuesday morning and drop high temperatures
about 20 degrees. Models are showing a brief shot of lift and
moisture around sunrise Tuesday morning which could give a chance
for precipitation mainly in southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin. The lift coincides with mid level
temperatures of -10C to -15C which is very good for dendritic
growth, so there may be a chance for rain to mix or change over to
snow in areas where the surface temperatures are cold
enough...most likely in Lea, Gaines, Andrews, and Dawson counties.
The lift will be brief and moisture not very deep so significant
accumulations are not expected though a dusting is possible.

Weak ridging follows Wednesday and Thursday but another upper
troughs drops into the Central Plains Friday bringing another cold
front and a return of colder temperatures. This trough will be
weaker than the first so no precipitation is expected with this
frontal passage.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  65  40  70  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              41  65  41  71  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                33  66  39  70  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  68  42  74  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  69  44  74  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          33  57  38  61  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   32  64  39  68  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   28  61  34  65  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  65  40  71  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  39  65  40  70  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    34  67  38  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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060
FXUS64 KMAF 201736
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1136 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR conditions at KCNM, KHOB, and KMAF should become VFR by 19z
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected at
most Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this afternoon
through much of tonight. The exception will be KMAF where IFR
conditions in fog and low clouds will redevelop by 06z tonight.
Elswhere TEMPO IFR conditons are expected to redevelop late
tonight at KHOB KINK, and KPEQ in dense fog and low clouds.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
will update the public products to expire the dense fog advisory
this morning for the Permian Basin and the southeast New Mexico
plains. Also lowered temperatures a couple of degrees this afternoon
areawide and tweaked sky cover based on latest trends and incoming
data.

Updated products to be sent shortly.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of low ceilings and fog will continue through the morning
hours.  HOB and MAF will be the last to improve with low ceilings
and visibilities possibly past 18z.  There is some uncertainty
whether or not the fog and low ceilings will reach CNM, INK, PEQ,
and FST.  Low ceilings and visibilities are again possible after 00z
with MAF and INK being the most likely terminals to experience these
conditions. Winds will remain light through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A chilly surface ridge jutting southwestward into the region is
contributing to low cloud and fog development over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning.  This as surface temperatures
cool to near current dewpoints, especially along and west of the
western fringe of a low cloud deck.  Hobbs, Andrews and Midland
have been reporting 1/4 statute miles in fog for a couple of hours,
with satellite imagery indicating other locations devoid of
observational data likely experiencing patchy dense fog.  Since low
clouds are not aggressively developing westward, and saturation of
the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue, will issue a Dense
Fog Advisory from Eddy and Lea Counties, southeastward across the
central Permian Basin until 20/17Z.  Some counties which will be
included in the advisory may see only patchy, or transient dense
fog.  Think it is more prudent to include these counties than have
to expand the advisory later.

Broad upper troughiness will prevail over the region today into
Sunday as a couple of innocuous shortwave troughs pass over, or
north of, the forecast area.  There will be little chance of rain
under this regime while temperatures gradually rise to around 15
degrees above normal Monday afternoon.  A more significant ua trough
digging south through the central/southern Rockies Monday will
contribute to this warming as westerly, downslope surface winds
increase over the area Sunday, and even moreso Monday.  High winds
will be possible in the the Guadalupe Mountains Monday as the ua
trough approaches, and Monday night as the ua trough moves over the
region.  For now, will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will crash south through the region Monday night and
Tuesday which will knock temperatures near to slightly below normal.
The resident time of the attendant surface ridge over the region
will be fairly short-lived as northwest flow aloft over the area
Wednesday becomes westerly on Christmas Day and will likely result
in high temperatures in the 60s and 70s for everyone.  The mild
temperatures will come crashing down again the day after Christmas,
or on Saturday if some of the slower models pan out.  One thing
seems fairly certain, there will not be much chance of precipitation
throughout the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  41  65  43  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                57  32  66  39  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  57  43  67  46  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  40  69  46  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  35  56  40  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  32  63  36  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   55  24  62  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  38  65  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  39  64  42  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    60  33  69  37  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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558
FXUS64 KMAF 201715 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1115 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
will update the public products to expire the dense fog advisory
this morning for the Permian Basin and the southeast New Mexico
plains. Also lowered temperatures a couple of degrees this afternoon
areawide and tweaked sky cover based on latest trends and incoming
data.


Updated products to be sent shortly.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of low ceilings and fog will continue through the morning
hours.  HOB and MAF will be the last to improve with low ceilings
and visibilities possibly past 18z.  There is some uncertainty
whether or not the fog and low ceilings will reach CNM, INK, PEQ,
and FST.  Low ceilings and visibilities are again possible after 00z
with MAF and INK being the most likely terminals to experience these
conditions. Winds will remain light through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A chilly surface ridge jutting southwestward into the region is
contributing to low cloud and fog development over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning.  This as surface temperatures
cool to near current dewpoints, especially along and west of the
western fringe of a low cloud deck.  Hobbs, Andrews and Midland
have been reporting 1/4 statute miles in fog for a couple of hours,
with satellite imagery indicating other locations devoid of
observational data likely experiencing patchy dense fog.  Since low
clouds are not aggressively developing westward, and saturation of
the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue, will issue a Dense
Fog Advisory from Eddy and Lea Counties, southeastward across the
central Permian Basin until 20/17Z.  Some counties which will be
included in the advisory may see only patchy, or transient dense
fog.  Think it is more prudent to include these counties than have
to expand the advisory later.

Broad upper troughiness will prevail over the region today into
Sunday as a couple of innocuous shortwave troughs pass over, or
north of, the forecast area.  There will be little chance of rain
under this regime while temperatures gradually rise to around 15
degrees above normal Monday afternoon.  A more significant ua trough
digging south through the central/southern Rockies Monday will
contribute to this warming as westerly, downslope surface winds
increase over the area Sunday, and even moreso Monday.  High winds
will be possible in the the Guadalupe Mountains Monday as the ua
trough approaches, and Monday night as the ua trough moves over the
region.  For now, will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will crash south through the region Monday night and
Tuesday which will knock temperatures near to slightly below normal.
The resident time of the attendant surface ridge over the region
will be fairly short-lived as northwest flow aloft over the area
Wednesday becomes westerly on Christmas Day and will likely result
in high temperatures in the 60s and 70s for everyone.  The mild
temperatures will come crashing down again the day after Christmas,
or on Saturday if some of the slower models pan out.  One thing
seems fairly certain, there will not be much chance of precipitation
throughout the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  41  65  43  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                57  32  66  39  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  57  43  67  46  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  40  69  46  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  35  56  40  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  32  63  36  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   55  24  62  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  38  65  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  39  64  42  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    60  33  69  37  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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384
FXUS64 KMAF 201105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
455 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of low ceilings and fog will continue through the morning
hours.  HOB and MAF will be the last to improve with low ceilings
and visibilities possibly past 18z.  There is some uncertainty
whether or not the fog and low ceilings will reach CNM, INK, PEQ,
and FST.  Low ceilings and visibilities are again possible after 00z
with MAF and INK being the most likely terminals to experience these
conditions. Winds will remain light through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A chilly surface ridge jutting southwestward into the region is
contributing to low cloud and fog development over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning.  This as surface temperatures
cool to near current dewpoints, especially along and west of the
western fringe of a low cloud deck.  Hobbs, Andrews and Midland
have been reporting 1/4 statute miles in fog for a couple of hours,
with satellite imagery indicating other locations devoid of
observational data likely experiencing patchy dense fog.  Since low
clouds are not aggressively developing westward, and saturation of
the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue, will issue a Dense
Fog Advisory from Eddy and Lea Counties, southeastward across the
central Permian Basin until 20/17Z.  Some counties which will be
included in the advisory may see only patchy, or transient dense
fog.  Think it is more prudent to include these counties than have
to expand the advisory later.

Broad upper troughiness will prevail over the region today into
Sunday as a couple of innocuous shortwave troughs pass over, or
north of, the forecast area.  There will be little chance of rain
under this regime while temperatures gradually rise to around 15
degrees above normal Monday afternoon.  A more significant ua trough
digging south through the central/southern Rockies Monday will
contribute to this warming as westerly, downslope surface winds
increase over the area Sunday, and even moreso Monday.  High winds
will be possible in the the Guadalupe Mountains Monday as the ua
trough approaches, and Monday night as the ua trough moves over the
region.  For now, will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will crash south through the region Monday night and
Tuesday which will knock temperatures near to slightly below normal.
The resident time of the attendant surface ridge over the region
will be fairly short-lived as northwest flow aloft over the area
Wednesday becomes westerly on Christmas Day and will likely result
in high temperatures in the 60s and 70s for everyone.  The mild
temperatures will come crashing down again the day after Christmas,
or on Saturday if some of the slower models pan out.  One thing
seems fairly certain, there will not be much chance of precipitation
throughout the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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159
FXUS64 KMAF 200923
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A chilly surface ridge jutting southwestward into the region is
contributing to low cloud and fog development over eastern portions
of the forecast area this morning.  This as surface temperatures
cool to near current dewpoints, especially along and west of the
western fringe of a low cloud deck.  Hobbs, Andrews and Midland
have been reporting 1/4 statute miles in fog for a couple of hours,
with satellite imagery indicating other locations devoid of
observational data likely experiencing patchy dense fog.  Since low
clouds are not aggressively developing westward, and saturation of
the lower levels of the atmosphere will continue, will issue a Dense
Fog Advisory from Eddy and Lea Counties, southeastward across the
central Permian Basin until 20/17Z.  Some counties which will be
included in the advisory may see only patchy, or transient dense
fog.  Think it is more prudent to include these counties than have
to expand the advisory later.

Broad upper troughiness will prevail over the region today into
Sunday as a couple of innocuous shortwave troughs pass over, or
north of, the forecast area.  There will be little chance of rain
under this regime while temperatures gradually rise to around 15
degrees above normal Monday afternoon.  A more significant ua trough
digging south through the central/southern Rockies Monday will
contribute to this warming as westerly, downslope surface winds
increase over the area Sunday, and even moreso Monday.  High winds
will be possible in the the Guadalupe Mountains Monday as the ua
trough approaches, and Monday night as the ua trough moves over the
region.  For now, will mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A cold front will crash south through the region Monday night and
Tuesday which will knock temperatures near to slightly below normal.
The resident time of the attendant surface ridge over the region
will be fairly short-lived as northwest flow aloft over the area
Wednesday becomes westerly on Christmas Day and will likely result
in high temperatures in the 60s and 70s for everyone.  The mild
temperatures will come crashing down again the day after Christmas,
or on Saturday if some of the slower models pan out.  One thing
seems fairly certain, there will not be much chance of precipitation
throughout the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  37  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              54  41  65  43  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  32  66  39  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  43  67  46  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  40  69  46  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  35  56  40  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   56  32  63  36  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   57  24  62  30  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  38  65  40  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  39  64  42  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    62  33  69  37  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

80/67

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227
FXUS64 KMAF 200502
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1102 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds are holding to the east so far tonight, but dropping
temperatures are causing patchy light fog to form in the clear
skies farther west. Expecting light fog ahead of IFR/LIFR CIG/VIS
which should arrive within the next few hours. These conditions
may struggle to reach the Pecos River TAF sites before daytime
heating allows for improvement Saturday morning.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds have slowly eroded from southwest
to northeast today. This has kept afternoon temperatures on the
cool side, especially across the northern and eastern portions of
the Permian Basin where low clouds remain in place. Indications
are that fog and low clouds will again reestablish themselves
along and east of the Pecos River overnight. Thus, we have
included mention of areas of fog in the forecast for these
locations.

Overall, the entire forecast looks dry with moderate temperatures
for southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through the period.
Surface low pressure along and east of the northern and central
portions of the Rockies will result in south to southwest surface
winds on Saturday with downslope westerly winds on Sunday and
Monday. The resulting warming trend will push high temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

As a Northern Plains upper level storm system and associated low
pressure area slides into the Upper Midwest early Tuesday, we should
see a cool down as a cold front slides into our area Tuesday
morning.  Little or no precipitation is forecast with this system,
except perhaps over the extreme northeast portions of the Permian
Basin and Rolling Plains. However, with the progressive nature of
the northern stream, impacts from this cold front will be brief
and uneventful. A quick exit of this cooler air will bring another
warming trend to our area, with high temperatures near 70
expected on Christmas Day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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368
FXUS64 KMAF 192323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Lower CIG/VIS has retreated east of the TAF sites this afternoon,
but will move back into the area tonight. IFR to LIFR conditions
are expected to develop 06-12Z before improving around 18Z. There
is a chance for 1/4SM FG and VV001, especially at MAF and HOB, but
confidence is not high enough to put in the forecast at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds have slowly eroded from southwest
to northeast today. This has kept afternoon temperatures on the
cool side, especially across the northern and eastern portions of
the Permian Basin where low clouds remain in place. Indications
are that fog and low clouds will again reestablish themselves
along and east of the Pecos River overnight. Thus, we have
included mention of areas of fog in the forecast for these
locations.

Overall, the entire forecast looks dry with moderate temperatures
for southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through the period.
Surface low pressure along and east of the northern and central
portions of the Rockies will result in south to southwest surface
winds on Saturday with downslope westerly winds on Sunday and
Monday. The resulting warming trend will push high temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

As a Northern Plains upper level storm system and associated low
pressure area slides into the Upper Midwest early Tuesday, we should
see a cool down as a cold front slides into our area Tuesday
morning.  Little or no precipitation is forecast with this system,
except perhaps over the extreme northeast portions of the Permian
Basin and Rolling Plains. However, with the progressive nature of
the northern stream, impacts from this cold front will be brief
and uneventful. A quick exit of this cooler air will bring another
warming trend to our area, with high temperatures near 70
expected on Christmas Day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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943
FXUS64 KMAF 192114
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
314 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds have slowly eroded from southwest
to northeast today. This has kept afternoon temperatures on the
cool side, especially across the northern and eastern portions of
the Permian Basin where low clouds remain in place. Indications
are that fog and low clouds will again reestablish themselves
along and east of the Pecos River overnight. Thus, we have
included mention of areas of fog in the forecast for these
locations.

Overall, the entire forecast looks dry with moderate temperatures
for southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through the period.
Surface low pressure along and east of the northern and central
portions of the Rockies will result in south to southwest surface
winds on Saturday with downslope westerly winds on Sunday and
Monday. The resulting warming trend will push high temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

As a Northern Plains upper level storm system and associated low
pressure area slides into the Upper Midwest early Tuesday, we should
see a cool down as a cold front slides into our area Tuesday
morning.  Little or no precipitation is forecast with this system,
except perhaps over the extreme northeast portions of the Permian
Basin and Rolling Plains. However, with the progressive nature of
the northern stream, impacts from this cold front will be brief
and uneventful. A quick exit of this cooler air will bring another
warming trend to our area, with high temperatures near 70
expected on Christmas Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  56  36  63  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              36  55  40  64  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                27  56  29  67  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  44  58  43  67  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  60  40  68  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  52  35  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   29  54  31  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   25  58  24  61  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  56  37  64  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  57  37  64  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  61  33  69  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/03

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545
FXUS64 KMAF 191757 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the public products to remove morning wording (remove
mention of fog).

updated products to be sent shortly.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR conditions at KINK, KHOB, KMAF should become VFR by early
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected
at all west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this
afternoon through much of tonight. TEMPO MVFR conditions in fog
is expected to redevelop late tonight at KHOB and KINK with
prevailing IFR conditions at KMAF developing by 06z tonight.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  35  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  36  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  27  58  32  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  38  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  32  52  35  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  29  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   57  25  58  26  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  36  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  36  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  32  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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788
FXUS64 KMAF 191713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1112 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR conditions at KINK, KHOB, KMAF should become VFR by early
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected
at all west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this
afternoon through much of tonight. TEMPO MVFR conditions in fog
is expected to redevelop late tonight at KHOB and KINK with
prevailing IFR conditions at KMAF developing by 06z tonight.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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012
FXUS64 KMAF 191104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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345
FXUS64 KMAF 191011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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950
FXUS64 KMAF 190454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front currently entering the northern Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico Plains and is forecast to push southwest
toward the Pecos River by 12z Friday. A period of MVFR ceilings
and or visibility is expected at KMAF, KINK, KHOB near and behind
this front toward 12z Friday. KMAF is expected to clear last and
could take by early Friday afternoon to improve to VFR. Across
KCNM, KPEQ, and KFST VFR conditions are expected the next 24
hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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244
FXUS64 KMAF 182322
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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860
FXUS64 KMAF 182056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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164
FXUS64 KMAF 181718
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1118 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR the first 12 hours of the TAF period, then IFR/LIFR conditions
north of the area will move in behind a cold front due to arrive
06-12Z. There is the potential for dense fog to develop but an
upper trough will bring scattered showers that could keep the
lower levels mixed enough to prevent this from occurring;
therefore, stayed on the higher end of LIFR conditions for now. No
significant improvement is expected before the end of the TAF.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, light winds with low dewpoint depressions across the
Western Low Rolling Plains, far eastern Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos are allowing for a chance of fog to develop in these
areas.  An upper level trough is approaching the region from the
west resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures which will allow for
slightly cooler high temperatures today.  As this upper trough moves
over the region tonight, upper lift will increase over the area.  A
cold front will push into the area from the northeast around the
same time the upper trough moves overhead.  Precipitation is
expected to develop across the CWA Thursday night into Friday as a
result of the increase in lift.  Lapse rates will be good across the
Lower Trans Pecos so have added mention of thunder across this
area.  There is a slight chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday night.  Elsewhere, expect the
precipitation to mainly be in the form of rain as forecast soundings
are not conducive to snow outside of mountainous areas due to
temperatures being too warm.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  The precipitation will shift towards the east during the day
Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday night.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead otherwise not much change is expected from
Saturday.  On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine
with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one
big amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with this big
upper trough will move into the area Tuesday morning.  Winds will
shift back towards the south on Wednesday allowing temperatures to
warm slightly.  Another upper trough will dig southeastward over the
western conus on Thursday.  A surface trough will strengthen across
the area as a result of this and temperatures will warm back into
the 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus next Friday.  Kept the extended forecast dry for
now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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856
FXUS64 KMAF 181110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
510 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals throughout the day and this evening.  A cold front
will move into the area, with MVFR ceilings/visibility in fog and
rain possible behind it.  Since these lower conditions are not
expected until 19/09Z and after, will not make a mention in this
issuance.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, light winds with low dewpoint depressions across the
Western Low Rolling Plains, far eastern Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos are allowing for a chance of fog to develop in these
areas.  An upper level trough is approaching the region from the
west resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures which will allow for
slightly cooler high temperatures today.  As this upper trough moves
over the region tonight, upper lift will increase over the area.  A
cold front will push into the area from the northeast around the
same time the upper trough moves overhead.  Precipitation is
expected to develop across the CWA Thursday night into Friday as a
result of the increase in lift.  Lapse rates will be good across the
Lower Trans Pecos so have added mention of thunder across this
area.  There is a slight chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday night.  Elsewhere, expect the
precipitation to mainly be in the form of rain as forecast soundings
are not conducive to snow outside of mountainous areas due to
temperatures being too warm.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  The precipitation will shift towards the east during the day
Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday night.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead otherwise not much change is expected from
Saturday.  On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine
with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one
big amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with this big
upper trough will move into the area Tuesday morning.  Winds will
shift back towards the south on Wednesday allowing temperatures to
warm slightly.  Another upper trough will dig southeastward over the
western conus on Thursday.  A surface trough will strengthen across
the area as a result of this and temperatures will warm back into
the 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus next Friday.  Kept the extended forecast dry for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  38  50  33  /   0  40  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  38  49  33  /   0  40  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  39  57  32  /  10  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  47  60  39  /   0  40  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  40  56  35  /   0  40  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  34  52  33  /  10  30  10   0
HOBBS NM                   58  36  52  31  /  10  40  20   0
MARFA TX                   60  31  55  24  /   0  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  38  52  33  /   0  40  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  38  53  33  /   0  40  20   0
WINK TX                    65  40  57  32  /   0  30  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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200
FXUS64 KMAF 181010
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, light winds with low dewpoint depressions across the
Western Low Rolling Plains, far eastern Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos are allowing for a chance of fog to develop in these
areas.  An upper level trough is approaching the region from the
west resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures which will allow for
slightly cooler high temperatures today.  As this upper trough moves
over the region tonight, upper lift will increase over the area.  A
cold front will push into the area from the northeast around the
same time the upper trough moves overhead.  Precipitation is
expected to develop across the CWA Thursday night into Friday as a
result of the increase in lift.  Lapse rates will be good across the
Lower Trans Pecos so have added mention of thunder across this
area.  There is a slight chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday night.  Elsewhere, expect the
precipitation to mainly be in the form of rain as forecast soundings
are not conducive to snow outside of mountainous areas due to
temperatures being too warm.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  The precipitation will shift towards the east during the day
Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday night.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead otherwise not much change is expected from
Saturday.  On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine
with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one
big amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with this big
upper trough will move into the area Tuesday morning.  Winds will
shift back towards the south on Wednesday allowing temperatures to
warm slightly.  Another upper trough will dig southeastward over the
western conus on Thursday.  A surface trough will strengthen across
the area as a result of this and temperatures will warm back into
the 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus next Friday.  Kept the extended forecast dry for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  38  50  33  /   0  40  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  38  49  33  /   0  40  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  39  57  32  /  10  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  47  60  39  /   0  40  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  40  56  35  /   0  40  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  34  52  33  /  10  30  10   0
HOBBS NM                   58  36  52  31  /  10  40  20   0
MARFA TX                   60  31  55  24  /   0  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  38  52  33  /   0  40  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  38  53  33  /   0  40  20   0
WINK TX                    65  40  57  32  /   0  30  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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863
FXUS64 KMAF 180503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1103 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR tonight through Thursday.  Low clouds east of the area this
morning should stay east of all TAF sites Thursday morning.
Generally light wind tonight should veer around to the NW during
the day and finally east tomorrow night as backdoor front moves in
toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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778
FXUS64 KMAF 172337
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty westerly winds will prevail at area terminals with the
exception of FST at the start of the TAF period. Gusts should
quickly die down after sunset as the boundary layer decouples and
should remain westerly overnight, with veering to a more northerly
component throughout the day Thursday. VFR conditions should prevail
with a mid-level ceiling becoming established tomorrow morning.
Forecast models hint at the possibility of a small window of IFR
ceilings at MAF and INK tomorrow around sunrise but confidence is
low and have decided to omit from this TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

As a weak shortwave trough exits to the east, above normal
temperatures will continue across the area through Thursday thanks
to west-southwest flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave to
the west.  Overnight lows tonight will be in the 30s to mid 40s
across the area, and highs Thursday will climb into the upper 50s to
middle 60s, generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most
locations.  Mid-level moisture will continue to increase across the
area ahead of the next shortwave, which will move through the region
on Thursday night and early Friday.  This shortwave will be stronger
than the previous, and models continue to indicate light QPF across
the entire CWFA with the exception of the Presidio Valley along the
Rio Grande. Thus, have maintained the slight chance/chance of
showers for Thursday night, with a rain/snow mix possible for higher
elevations in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  However, given
warm ground temperatures, any snow that manages to fall in these
locations is not expected to accumulate, and thus, impacts should be
minimal. As the shortwave exits the area, precipitation will taper
off from west to east, with the chance of showers on Friday confined
mainly to the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling
Plains.

Temperatures on Friday and through the weekend will drop to slightly
below normal as weak ridging develops ahead of yet another upper
level trough that will move through the area on Sunday. However,
there will be little moisture for this system to work with, thus
have maintained a dry forecast through the weekend. In the wake of
Sunday`s trough, northwest flow aloft will set in over the
region, which will be reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great
Lakes Region and subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. With the persistent northwest flow continuing into next
week and the main slug of mid-level moisture remaining well north
of the area, quiet weather is expected for the latter part of the
extended, with dry conditions and near to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

83

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283
FXUS64 KMAF 172050
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

As a weak shortwave trough exits to the east, above normal
temperatures will continue across the area through Thursday thanks
to west-southwest flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave to
the west.  Overnight lows tonight will be in the 30s to mid 40s
across the area, and highs Thursday will climb into the upper 50s to
middle 60s, generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most
locations.  Mid-level moisture will continue to increase across the
area ahead of the next shortwave, which will move through the region
on Thursday night and early Friday.  This shortwave will be stronger
than the previous, and models continue to indicate light QPF across
the entire CWFA with the exception of the Presidio Valley along the
Rio Grande. Thus, have maintained the slight chance/chance of
showers for Thursday night, with a rain/snow mix possible for higher
elevations in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  However, given
warm ground temperatures, any snow that manages to fall in these
locations is not expected to accumulate, and thus, impacts should be
minimal. As the shortwave exits the area, precipitation will taper
off from west to east, with the chance of showers on Friday confined
mainly to the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling
Plains.

Temperatures on Friday and through the weekend will drop to slightly
below normal as weak ridging develops ahead of yet another upper
level trough that will move through the area on Sunday. However,
there will be little moisture for this system to work with, thus
have maintained a dry forecast through the weekend. In the wake of
Sunday`s trough, northwest flow aloft will set in over the
region, which will be reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great
Lakes Region and subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. With the persistent northwest flow continuing into next
week and the main slug of mid-level moisture remaining well north
of the area, quiet weather is expected for the latter part of the
extended, with dry conditions and near to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 40  61  38  52  /   0   0  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              43  65  41  53  /  10   0  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                40  60  36  57  /   0  10  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  45  67  48  62  /   0   0  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  62  40  57  /   0   0  40  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  54  34  52  /   0  10  30  10
HOBBS NM                   37  58  34  53  /   0  10  30  10
MARFA TX                   31  61  30  55  /   0   0  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    39  64  39  52  /  10   0  40  20
ODESSA TX                  40  63  39  53  /  10   0  40  20
WINK TX                    38  63  38  57  /   0   0  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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719
FXUS64 KMAF 171615
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1015 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc winds will veer to SW this afternoon, scouring out the lower
levels to VFR all terminals, and continue veering to W after
sunrise Thursday. Buffer soundings suggest LIFR stratus trying to
develop KHOB/KINK shortly after sunrise, but this will be brief.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will traverse the region today, and result in a
slight chance of showers for all but the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region.  Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture
through the column is lacking.  Temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal as westerly winds prevail in the wake of the
shortwave trough.  A little more substantial shortwave trough will
head for the region Thursday, which will promote high temperatures
rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal in most locations.  The
ua trough will be deep enough for a chance of showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, if not lingering into Friday morning
over eastern portions of the area.  Precipitation amounts will be
light again, but this could change if thunderstorms develop due to
a slightly more vigorous ua trough than models are currently
showing.  Will leave showers as the primary mode for now.  There
may also be a mix of rain and snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Since the ground will be warm and
precipitation amounts will be light, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Friday and through the weekend
as surface ridging will prevail over the region during this time.
Another ua trough will head for the region Sunday/Monday, but the
latest models continue to display an open wave which pushes eastward
over the area with little fanfare.  Will leave the extended dry and
keep temperatures near to above normal under innocuous northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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947
FXUS64 KMAF 171108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings are expected to continue for MAF through the morning
hours and ceilings in HOB should lift earlier.  Winds will shift to
the southwest today and become elevated and gusty this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of low ceilings redeveloping just before
12z Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will traverse the region today, and result in a
slight chance of showers for all but the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region.  Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture
through the column is lacking.  Temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal as westerly winds prevail in the wake of the
shortwave trough.  A little more substantial shortwave trough will
head for the region Thursday, which will promote high temperatures
rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal in most locations.  The
ua trough will be deep enough for a chance of showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, if not lingering into Friday morning
over eastern portions of the area.  Precipitation amounts will be
light again, but this could change if thunderstorms develop due to
a slightly more vigorous ua trough than models are currently
showing.  Will leave showers as the primary mode for now.  There
may also be a mix of rain and snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Since the ground will be warm and
precipitation amounts will be light, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Friday and through the weekend
as surface ridging will prevail over the region during this time.
Another ua trough will head for the region Sunday/Monday, but the
latest models continue to display an open wave which pushes eastward
over the area with little fanfare.  Will leave the extended dry and
keep temperatures near to above normal under innocuous northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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331
FXUS64 KMAF 170925
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
325 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will traverse the region today, and result in a
slight chance of showers for all but the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region.  Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture
through the column is lacking.  Temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal as westerly winds prevail in the wake of the
shortwave trough.  A little more substantial shortwave trough will
head for the region Thursday, which will promote high temperatures
rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal in most locations.  The
ua trough will be deep enough for a chance of showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, if not lingering into Friday morning
over eastern portions of the area.  Precipitation amounts will be
light again, but this could change if thunderstorms develop due to
a slightly more vigorous ua trough than models are currently
showing.  Will leave showers as the primary mode for now.  There
may also be a mix of rain and snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Since the ground will be warm and
precipitation amounts will be light, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Friday and through the weekend
as surface ridging will prevail over the region during this time.
Another ua trough will head for the region Sunday/Monday, but the
latest models continue to display an open wave which pushes eastward
over the area with little fanfare.  Will leave the extended dry and
keep temperatures near to above normal under innocuous northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 61  40  61  37  /  20   0   0  30
BIG SPRING TX              61  43  66  41  /  20  10   0  40
CARLSBAD NM                63  41  59  36  /  20   0  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  46  67  49  /  10   0   0  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  43  62  40  /  10   0   0  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  37  54  33  /  20   0  10  30
HOBBS NM                   58  36  58  33  /  20   0  10  30
MARFA TX                   63  30  61  31  /  10   0   0  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  41  64  40  /  20  10   0  40
ODESSA TX                  63  41  63  38  /  20  10   0  40
WINK TX                    66  38  63  38  /  10   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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193
FXUS64 KMAF 170523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1122 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Considerable mid and high clouds will continue to move across the
area from the west the rest of the night and through sunrise
tomorrow.  Low clouds will move in from the SE overnight and should
spread across all of the region by 12z... MVFR cigs expected.  SE
wind should veer around to the S/SW tomorrow as new leeside trough
develops.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Sensible weather across the area over the next several days will
be governed by a series of weak shortwaves progged to move through
the region. Increasing clouds overnight will be followed by a
return to southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, allowing
temperatures to edge up to slightly above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The first of the
aforementioned series of shortwaves will eject out through the
Desert Southwest and progress northeastward, skirting northern
portions of the CWFA on Wednesday night. This feature is expected
to pass by quickly and with little fanfare due to a lack of
sufficient moisture across the area. Have gone ahead and left in
the slight chance of showers for the far eastern portions of the
area where moisture profiles will be slightly more conducive to
rainfall.

The second, higher amplitude wave will move through the region on
Thursday night and Friday, and will be accompanied by weak 500mb
height falls.  This wave will move more slowly than the first, and
given continued southwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of this feature, there will be quite a bit more moisture to work
with. The best chance for precipitation across the area will be
Thursday night, with all but the Presidio Valley having a slight
chance to chance of showers overnight.  Higher elevations in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains could even see a mix of rain and snow
late Thursday night, though warm ground temperatures will prevent
any accumulation.  As the shortwave moves east on Friday,
precipitation will end from west to east, though model soundings
indicate small amounts of elevated instability over the southeast
New Mexico Plains and Trans Pecos, which could be enough for an
isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas as the system pulls
away. Friday will also be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold
front, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide, except for the Rio
Grande Valley where low to middle 60s are possible.

Temperatures will slowly moderate back toward normal by the end of
next weekend, ahead of the next trough that will move through the
region.  Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the
advancement of a positively tilted trough through the area Sunday
night and Monday, though the GFS is the only model that generates
any precipitation ahead of this feature. Thus, have kept the end of
the extended dry for now pending additional guidance regarding the
eventual evolution of this feature.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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146
FXUS64 KMAF 170006
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Moisture return from generally ESE flow at the surface and
associated isentropic ascent will result in MVFR ceilings tonight
at areal terminals. Surface winds will continue veering from
easterly tonight to predominately westerly tomorrow afternoon as a
surface ridge move out of the area. Westerly flow is expected to
result in clearing to VFR conditions by late morning except at
INK, MAF, & FST where marginal MVFR ceilings may persist through
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Sensible weather across the area over the next several days will
be governed by a series of weak shortwaves progged to move through
the region. Increasing clouds overnight will be followed by a
return to southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, allowing
temperatures to edge up to slightly above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The first of the
aforementioned series of shortwaves will eject out through the
Desert Southwest and progress northeastward, skirting northern
portions of the CWFA on Wednesday night. This feature is expected
to pass by quickly and with little fanfare due to a lack of
sufficient moisture across the area. Have gone ahead and left in
the slight chance of showers for the far eastern portions of the
area where moisture profiles will be slightly more conducive to
rainfall.

The second, higher amplitude wave will move through the region on
Thursday night and Friday, and will be accompanied by weak 500mb
height falls.  This wave will move more slowly than the first, and
given continued southwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of this feature, there will be quite a bit more moisture to work
with. The best chance for precipitation across the area will be
Thursday night, with all but the Presidio Valley having a slight
chance to chance of showers overnight.  Higher elevations in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains could even see a mix of rain and snow
late Thursday night, though warm ground temperatures will prevent
any accumulation.  As the shortwave moves east on Friday,
precipitation will end from west to east, though model soundings
indicate small amounts of elevated instability over the southeast
New Mexico Plains and Trans Pecos, which could be enough for an
isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas as the system pulls
away. Friday will also be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold
front, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide, except for the Rio
Grande Valley where low to middle 60s are possible.

Temperatures will slowly moderate back toward normal by the end of
next weekend, ahead of the next trough that will move through the
region.  Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the
advancement of a positively tilted trough through the area Sunday
night and Monday, though the GFS is the only model that generates
any precipitation ahead of this feature. Thus, have kept the end of
the extended dry for now pending additional guidance regarding the
eventual evolution of this feature.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

83

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282
FXUS64 KMAF 162110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
310 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Sensible weather across the area over the next several days will
be governed by a series of weak shortwaves progged to move through
the region. Increasing clouds overnight will be followed by a
return to southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, allowing
temperatures to edge up to slightly above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The first of the
aforementioned series of shortwaves will eject out through the
Desert Southwest and progress northeastward, skirting northern
portions of the CWFA on Wednesday night. This feature is expected
to pass by quickly and with little fanfare due to a lack of
sufficient moisture across the area. Have gone ahead and left in
the slight chance of showers for the far eastern portions of the
area where moisture profiles will be slightly more conducive to
rainfall.

The second, higher amplitude wave will move through the region on
Thursday night and Friday, and will be accompanied by weak 500mb
height falls.  This wave will move more slowly than the first, and
given continued southwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of this feature, there will be quite a bit more moisture to work
with. The best chance for precipitation across the area will be
Thursday night, with all but the Presidio Valley having a slight
chance to chance of showers overnight.  Higher elevations in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains could even see a mix of rain and snow
late Thursday night, though warm ground temperatures will prevent
any accumulation.  As the shortwave moves east on Friday,
precipitation will end from west to east, though model soundings
indicate small amounts of elevated instability over the southeast
New Mexico Plains and Trans Pecos, which could be enough for an
isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas as the system pulls
away. Friday will also be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold
front, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide, except for the Rio
Grande Valley where low to middle 60s are possible.

Temperatures will slowly moderate back toward normal by the end of
next weekend, ahead of the next trough that will move through the
region.  Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the
advancement of a positively tilted trough through the area Sunday
night and Monday, though the GFS is the only model that generates
any precipitation ahead of this feature. Thus, have kept the end of
the extended dry for now pending additional guidance regarding the
eventual evolution of this feature.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 41  60  38  60  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  59  40  62  /  10  20  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  65  40  61  /  10  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  46  61  43  64  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           42  67  41  65  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  57  38  54  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   35  61  36  59  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   33  62  33  59  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  62  37  63  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  42  61  39  62  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    41  65  37  63  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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706
FXUS64 KMAF 161622
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1022 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc flow will continue veering to the south over the next 24 hours
as the sfc ridge continues moving east. A weak warm front will
push into the area overnight on return flow, w/isentropic upglide
bringing MVFR stratus into the region beginning mid-evening.
Buffer soundings suggest cigs improving to VFR by the end of the
forecast period everywhere but KMAF, KFST, and KINK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Slightly below normal temperatures will prevail today as a surface
ridge dominates the region, and high clouds begin to increase from
the west ahead of an oncoming ua trough.  A shortwave trough will
eject eastward over the region Wednesday before the upper trough
axis swings overhead Thursday night.  This will allow temperatures
to warm back above normal Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition,
there will be a slight chance of showers over the eastern Permian
Basin Wednesday, with a bit better chance Thursday night over most
of the forecast area.  There are some indications there will be very
modest elevated instability on both Wednesday and Thursday night for
thunderstorms to develop.  However, the upper trough does not look
overly impressive, and there will not be much moisture to work with,
so will carry showers for now.  There is not a lot of cold air
associated with the ua trough Thursday night, but some of the
precipitation could mix with snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Due to warm surface temperatures and
fairly light precipitation amounts, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Another cold front will ease into the area Friday and cool
temperatures back below normal.  Broad and weak upper troughing over
much of the ConUS through the weekend will also tend temperatures to
near or slightly below.  Another upper trough will dig through the
central Rockies this weekend, and over the forecast area Sunday
night/Monday.  This system is less amplified and faster than in
previous day`s model runs, so have backed off on PoPs Sunday and
Monday.  After coordinating with surrounding offices, will still
carry a slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday, and wait
for better agreement to reinsert any higher chances.  Temperatures
will be near normal into early next week with the passage of this
trough.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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260
FXUS64 KMAF 161109
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be out of the east to southeast throughout the period
with some elevated winds in FST and MAF.  There is a slight chance
of MVFR ceilings developing around 06z Wednesday; otherwise,
scattered to broken high cloud will be over the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Slightly below normal temperatures will prevail today as a surface
ridge dominates the region, and high clouds begin to increase from
the west ahead of an oncoming ua trough.  A shortwave trough will
eject eastward over the region Wednesday before the upper trough
axis swings overhead Thursday night.  This will allow temperatures
to warm back above normal Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition,
there will be a slight chance of showers over the eastern Permian
Basin Wednesday, with a bit better chance Thursday night over most
of the forecast area.  There are some indications there will be very
modest elevated instability on both Wednesday and Thursday night for
thunderstorms to develop.  However, the upper trough does not look
overly impressive, and there will not be much moisture to work with,
so will carry showers for now.  There is not a lot of cold air
associated with the ua trough Thursday night, but some of the
precipitation could mix with snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Due to warm surface temperatures and
fairly light precipitation amounts, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Another cold front will ease into the area Friday and cool
temperatures back below normal.  Broad and weak upper troughing over
much of the ConUS through the weekend will also tend temperatures to
near or slightly below.  Another upper trough will dig through the
central Rockies this weekend, and over the forecast area Sunday
night/Monday.  This system is less amplified and faster than in
previous day`s model runs, so have backed off on PoPs Sunday and
Monday.  After coordinating with surrounding offices, will still
carry a slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday, and wait
for better agreement to reinsert any higher chances.  Temperatures
will be near normal into early next week with the passage of this
trough.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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785
FXUS64 KMAF 160900
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Slightly below normal temperatures will prevail today as a surface
ridge dominates the region, and high clouds begin to increase from
the west ahead of an oncoming ua trough.  A shortwave trough will
eject eastward over the region Wednesday before the upper trough
axis swings overhead Thursday night.  This will allow temperatures
to warm back above normal Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition,
there will be a slight chance of showers over the eastern Permian
Basin Wednesday, with a bit better chance Thursday night over most
of the forecast area.  There are some indications there will be very
modest elevated instability on both Wednesday and Thursday night for
thunderstorms to develop.  However, the upper trough does not look
overly impressive, and there will not be much moisture to work with,
so will carry showers for now.  There is not a lot of cold air
associated with the ua trough Thursday night, but some of the
precipitation could mix with snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Due to warm surface temperatures and
fairly light precipitation amounts, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Another cold front will ease into the area Friday and cool
temperatures back below normal.  Broad and weak upper troughing over
much of the ConUS through the weekend will also tend temperatures to
near or slightly below.  Another upper trough will dig through the
central Rockies this weekend, and over the forecast area Sunday
night/Monday.  This system is less amplified and faster than in
previous day`s model runs, so have backed off on PoPs Sunday and
Monday.  After coordinating with surrounding offices, will still
carry a slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday, and wait
for better agreement to reinsert any higher chances.  Temperatures
will be near normal into early next week with the passage of this
trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  41  60  38  /   0   0  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              53  44  60  40  /   0   0  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  38  64  40  /   0  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  48  61  44  /   0   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  42  68  40  /   0   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  40  58  38  /   0  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   52  36  60  36  /   0   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   57  34  63  33  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  43  61  37  /   0   0  10   0
ODESSA TX                  54  44  61  38  /   0   0  10   0
WINK TX                    57  40  65  37  /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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441
FXUS64 KMAF 160512
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1109 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
light and variable overnight then become easterly to southeasterly
by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

UPDATE...

Temperatures are falling quickly over northern Lea Co and the
Marfa Plateau and are already near their forecasted lows. Have
updated to lower overnight temps a few degrees at these locations.
Also increased the cloud cover over the area as cirrus spreads
across the area from the west.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the upper MS valley,
leaving near-zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico in its wake.  This has resulted in CAVU conditions over the
region, w/a very dry AMS in place, and afternoon temps climbing
above-normal.  A sfc ridge is forecast to slide down the Front Range
overnight, veering sfc flow and backdooring a weak cold front into
the area.  Lows overnight will be tricky, as models keep up a sfc
pressure gradient throughout the night as fropa occurs.  Colder
temps than last night are reasonable, but not as cold as the MET
numbers, which would be more realistic absent a
gradient.

Still, CAA behind the front should be sufficient to push temps
Tuesday afternoon blo normal, w/a warmup to temps similar to today`s
by Thursday afternoon as SW flow aloft develops in response to the
next incoming trough.  Models landfall that feature on the west
coast by 06Z Wednesday, and advance it along the US/Mexico brder to
NM by 06Z Friday.  Moisture return by this time is rather anemic,
w/40+ dewpoints only into the Lwr Trans Pecos, but this looks to be
our next shot at convection ahead of the trough, quickly tapering
off to the east Friday.  A brief lull ensures before a secondary,
depper trough arrives Sunday night/Monday, for another round of
convection.  Models are not in real good agreement on the strength
or timing of the trough (nor are they for the first one, for that
matter), but all are warm enough at this point, being Pac systems,
to rule out winter precip.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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245
FXUS64 KMAF 160220
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
820 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.UPDATE...

Temperatures are falling quickly over northern Lea Co and the
Marfa Plateau and are already near their forecasted lows. Have
updated to lower overnight temps a few degrees at these locations.
Also increased the cloud cover over the area as cirrus spreads
across the area from the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR and light winds through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the upper MS valley,
leaving near-zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico in its wake.  This has resulted in CAVU conditions over the
region, w/a very dry AMS in place, and afternoon temps climbing
above-normal.  A sfc ridge is forecast to slide down the Front Range
overnight, veering sfc flow and backdooring a weak cold front into
the area.  Lows overnight will be tricky, as models keep up a sfc
pressure gradient throughout the night as fropa occurs.  Colder
temps than last night are reasonable, but not as cold as the MET
numbers, which would be more realistic absent a
gradient.

Still, CAA behind the front should be sufficient to push temps
Tuesday afternoon blo normal, w/a warmup to temps similar to today`s
by Thursday afternoon as SW flow aloft develops in response to the
next incoming trough.  Models landfall that feature on the west
coast by 06Z Wednesday, and advance it along the US/Mexico brder to
NM by 06Z Friday.  Moisture return by this time is rather anemic,
w/40+ dewpoints only into the Lwr Trans Pecos, but this looks to be
our next shot at convection ahead of the trough, quickly tapering
off to the east Friday.  A brief lull ensures before a secondary,
depper trough arrives Sunday night/Monday, for another round of
convection.  Models are not in real good agreement on the strength
or timing of the trough (nor are they for the first one, for that
matter), but all are warm enough at this point, being Pac systems,
to rule out winter precip.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  54  39  56  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              37  57  43  59  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                34  59  35  66  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  42  61  46  55  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  60  41  63  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          36  51  42  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   31  54  37  58  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   28  61  32  60  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    33  56  41  59  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  35  59  41  62  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    33  62  41  65  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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182
FXUS64 KMAF 152309
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the upper MS valley,
leaving near-zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico in its wake.  This has resulted in CAVU conditions over the
region, w/a very dry AMS in place, and afternoon temps climbing
above-normal.  A sfc ridge is forecast to slide down the Front Range
overnight, veering sfc flow and backdooring a weak cold front into
the area.  Lows overnight will be tricky, as models keep up a sfc
pressure gradient throughout the night as fropa occurs.  Colder
temps than last night are reasonable, but not as cold as the MET
numbers, which would be more realistic absent a
gradient.

Still, CAA behind the front should be sufficient to push temps
Tuesday afternoon blo normal, w/a warmup to temps similar to today`s
by Thursday afternoon as SW flow aloft develops in response to the
next incoming trough.  Models landfall that feature on the west
coast by 06Z Wednesday, and advance it along the US/Mexico brder to
NM by 06Z Friday.  Moisture return by this time is rather anemic,
w/40+ dewpoints only into the Lwr Trans Pecos, but this looks to be
our next shot at convection ahead of the trough, quickly tapering
off to the east Friday.  A brief lull ensures before a secondary,
depper trough arrives Sunday night/Monday, for another round of
convection.  Models are not in real good agreement on the strength
or timing of the trough (nor are they for the first one, for that
matter), but all are warm enough at this point, being Pac systems,
to rule out winter precip.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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811
FXUS64 KMAF 152045
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the upper MS valley,
leaving near-zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico in its wake.  This has resulted in CAVU conditions over the
region, w/a very dry AMS in place, and afternoon temps climbing
above-normal.  A sfc ridge is forecast to slide down the Front Range
overnight, veering sfc flow and backdooring a weak cold front into
the area.  Lows overnight will be tricky, as models keep up a sfc
pressure gradient throughout the night as fropa occurs.  Colder
temps than last night are reasonable, but not as cold as the MET
numbers, which would be more realistic absent a
gradient.

Still, CAA behind the front should be sufficient to push temps
Tuesday afternoon blo normal, w/a warmup to temps similar to today`s
by Thursday afternoon as SW flow aloft develops in response to the
next incoming trough.  Models landfall that feature on the west
coast by 06Z Wednesday, and advance it along the US/Mexico brder to
NM by 06Z Friday.  Moisture return by this time is rather anemic,
w/40+ dewpoints only into the Lwr Trans Pecos, but this looks to be
our next shot at convection ahead of the trough, quickly tapering
off to the east Friday.  A brief lull ensures before a secondary,
depper trough arrives Sunday night/Monday, for another round of
convection.  Models are not in real good agreement on the strength
or timing of the trough (nor are they for the first one, for that
matter), but all are warm enough at this point, being Pac systems,
to rule out winter precip.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  54  39  56  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              37  57  43  59  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                34  59  35  66  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  42  61  46  55  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  60  41  63  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          36  51  42  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   33  54  37  58  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   29  61  32  60  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    33  56  41  59  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  35  59  41  62  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    33  62  41  65  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/44

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438
FXUS64 KMAF 151741
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A gradual surface wind shift to the northeast to east will occur
this evening into Tuesday at TAF locations as a cold front moves into the
area and high pressure builds across Southeast New Mexico and
Southwest Texas.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low/trough that brought the wind to the area yesterday is
moving off to the northeast this morning with high pressure building
in behind it.  This will result in mild wx for the region the next
few days.  Another upper trough moving down the West Coast Wednesday
will swing over AZ and into NM on Thursday bringing our next shot of
rain.  A third upper trough dives down across the Rockies over the
weekend and may bring colder wx and another chance of precipitation
to the region.

Will start the day on the backside of the Pacific front with a west
wind across the area.  High dewpts have been pushed well to the east
with a dry airmass over the region.  A backdoor front will push in
tonight as a surface ridge builds south.  This will result in an
east wind across the area and cooler temperatures Tuesday.  The wind
will slowly come back around to the south and temps will begin to
warm as a new leeside trough develops.

High temperatures will be in the 60s today falling to the 50s for
much of the area on Tuesday.  Temps slowly warm Wednesday and
Thursday before another Pac front sweeps through early Fri knocking
highs back into the 50s for the weekend.  Lows will generally be in
the 30s and 40s.

Rain chances start Wednesday night ahead of the next upper trough
and continue through Friday.  Have another shot of rain starting
Sunday night with the third upper trough this week.  Currently
this last trough looks to have the best chance of being a rain
producer but it is a long ways out and that could change.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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300
FXUS64 KMAF 151123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with some increase in highs clouds from the west during the
afternoon. Wind will generally be NW as surface ridge builds down
across the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low/trough that brought the wind to the area yesterday is
moving off to the northeast this morning with high pressure building
in behind it.  This will result in mild wx for the region the next
few days.  Another upper trough moving down the West Coast Wednesday
will swing over AZ and into NM on Thursday bringing our next shot of
rain.  A third upper trough dives down across the Rockies over the
weekend and may bring colder wx and another chance of precipitation
to the region.

Will start the day on the backside of the Pacific front with a west
wind across the area.  High dewpts have been pushed well to the east
with a dry airmass over the region.  A backdoor front will push in
tonight as a surface ridge builds south.  This will result in an
east wind across the area and cooler temperatures Tuesday.  The wind
will slowly come back around to the south and temps will begin to
warm as a new leeside trough develops.

High temperatures will be in the 60s today falling to the 50s for
much of the area on Tuesday.  Temps slowly warm Wednesday and
Thursday before another Pac front sweeps through early Fri knocking
highs back into the 50s for the weekend.  Lows will generally be in
the 30s and 40s.

Rain chances start Wednesday night ahead of the next upper trough
and continue through Friday.  Have another shot of rain starting
Sunday night with the third upper trough this week.  Currently
this last trough looks to have the best chance of being a rain
producer but it is a long ways out and that could change.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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