Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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419
FXUS64 KMAF 251935
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
235 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WE FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH
BETTER RAIN CHANCES AHEAD THIS WEEKEND.

A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXPANDING ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN U.S. MEANWHILE, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH
WILL DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION
IN NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND EVEN A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITHIN THIS FLOW AND BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINGERING INVERTED
TROUGH, HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONT. MOIST, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5". WE
MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A BIGGER
CONCERN. IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE AS IT WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON
SHORTWAVES AND BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. THE FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH DAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE SO ALSO CAN`T RULE OUT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION EACH NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW BEFORE DROPPING
BACK A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO NEVER REALLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THEM LATELY, AT
OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  96  72  90  /   0  10  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                    70  97  70  89  /  20  40  40  40
DRYDEN TX                      72  96  72  93  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               71  96  70  90  /  10  20  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  67  82  /  20  40  40  40
HOBBS NM                       67  94  67  87  /  10  30  40  40
MARFA TX                       62  90  64  86  /  20  40  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  96  71  89  /   0  10  20  40
ODESSA TX                      71  95  71  89  /  10  20  20  40
WINK TX                        72  99  72  91  /  10  20  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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