Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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377
FXUS64 KMAF 281121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with a S to SE wind across the area. May be a few
afternoon storms vicinity of CNM... PEQ... or FST but did not
include in TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over OK this morning will slide a little to the
east as an upper trough swings across the Northern Plains.  As the
trough passes to the east the ridge will shift back to the west by this
weekend becoming centered over the 4 corners region.  Ridge remains in
this location out through 240hrs.

Yesterday models were too eager to start cooling temps aloft but it
turned out to be the hottest day of the year at MAF with 103 degrees.
Pecos hit 106 and Wink hit 107 degrees. Therefore have bumped up
temps slightly for today and stayed to the warm side of guidance.
Part of the reason yesterday was so hot was because morning lows
only dropped to around 80 degrees in some locations. Will go
slightly over guidance again Wednesday as will have to see some
actual cooling before start lowering temps much. Overnight lows
should remain unseasonably warm. By Thursday 90s should become
more prevalent and continue through the weekend.

Best chance of storms will be over and adjacent to the mountains again
this afternoon and evening as good low level moisture... daytime
heating... and orographic lift combine.  A few storms over the same
locations on Wednesday with not much convection expected Thursday and
Friday.  With the upper ridge centered to the west potential exists for
shortwaves to come down into the area on NW flow and develop precip.
Currently best chance of rain for the Permian Basin looks to be
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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