Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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124
FXUS64 KMAF 251919
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  81  50  76  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              54  85  54  79  /   0  10  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                52  76  47  76  /   0  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  58  89  57  87  /   0  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  85  54  80  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  67  42  70  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   50  76  47  74  /   0  10  10  30
MARFA TX                   37  76  37  71  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  83  52  78  /   0  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  54  82  51  78  /   0  10  20  10
WINK TX                    51  82  50  80  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/72

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