Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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675
FXUS64 KMAF 282317
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Scattered storms will continue across the Permian Basin and Trans
Pecos through the evening. Have included tempos for this at KMAF
and KFST. Main threat will be gusty winds and lowered visibility
in and near storms. Will also need to monitor for more storm
development overnight across the area as the upper trough axis
moves across the Panhandle. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with
more isolated storms possible Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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