Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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646
FXUS64 KMAF 281947
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered across extreme northeast
Texas will continue to move northeast away from the region.
At the surface unseasonably cool surface high pressure is
centered over the extreme eastern high plains of Colorado and New
Mexico. This surface high is forecast to slide southeast tonight
and be centered over and near the Davis Mountains and Marfa
Plateau by sunrise. Will go ahead and issue a late season Freeze
Warning for the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau for late tonight
and early Tuesday morning. It will be a close call. Some locations
will probably not freeze but the potential exists for a few locations
to fall into the 30 to 32 degree range given that some snow flurries
were reported in the Davis Mountains this morning and skies will
clear with the center of the surface high passing over that region.

It will be dry with moderating temperatures expected Wednesday through
Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds and remains over the forecast
area. Temperatures will still be below normal Wednesday but should
become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850 millibar temperatures
continue to warm.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday and Monday.
A dryline is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon
both days. Guidance is breaking out some convection in these areas
both days and could be reasonable given the amount of mid level
moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will be above normal
with low level thermal ridging in place.

Thunderstorm chances will increase area wide by Tuesday due to a
upper level low pressure system approaching from the desert
southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 41  74  48  84  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              42  74  47  83  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                39  76  44  87  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  46  77  49  84  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  73  50  85  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          41  66  49  81  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   35  73  47  83  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   31  68  32  76  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  74  48  83  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  43  74  50  83  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    43  76  47  86  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

72/12

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