Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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188
FXUS64 KMAF 261701
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the
west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected through this evening but confidence was
not high enough to include at any of the terminals. MVFR ceilings
are expected to develop at KMAF by 12z Saturday and could continue
until at least 15z Saturday. Expect southeast winds of 5 to 15
mph the next 24 hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings and visibility could affect KCNM, KHOB and perhaps
KPEQ and KINK through 26/14Z.  However, more high clouds may
spread over these terminals and limit low cloud/fog development.
Farther east, KFST and KMAF appear in line for showers, if not a
thunderstorm, this morning.  Expect VFR conditions at all area
terminals this afternoon.  Thunderstorms could affect terminals
again this afternoon, but the probability is too low to include.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

A few showers and even some storms continue across the area this
morning as a mid level disturbance moves overhead. This is within
southwesterly flow aloft as our region remains on the western edge
of a large subtropical high over the SE U.S. Meanwhile an outflow
boundary is moving south across SE NM and portions of the Permian
Basin. This boundary will likely slow and stall and may become a
focus for more convection later today as daytime heating occurs.
Training cells are possible again today as storms move parallel to
the upper flow. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will
continue to be the main threat especially across western portions
of the area. This is where several inches of rain have fallen over
the past few days and where the focus will remain for the next
several days. At this time it appears the heavy rain will not be
widespread enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, but this will
continue to be monitored.

The subtropical ridge to our east weakens late in the weekend while
a couple of upper lows cut off over northern Mexico and S TX. This
will keep the weather fairly active across our area with a daily
chance of showers and storms and temperatures below normal early
next week. Extended range models indicate an upper ridge building
in over the S. Plains late next week with drying conditions and
warming temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  91  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
Carlsbad                       66  88  68  87 /  20  30  20  40
Dryden                         71  92  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  67  89  68  89 /  20  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  64  79 /  20  30  20  40
Hobbs                          64  86  65  86 /  20  20  20  30
Marfa                          60  81  61  81 /  30  40  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           69  90  69  90 /  20  20  10  30
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  20  10  30
Wink                           69  91  69  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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