Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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194
FXUS64 KMAF 251148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 209.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have blossomed over the Permian Basin this morning.
Due to a compact, but strong shortwave trough moving over the
area, decent elevated instability and steep mid level lapse rates,
some of the storms are producing large hail.  Think storms will
move rapidly off to the northeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  59  90  63  /  30   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  63  91  68  /  40  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  91  57  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  93  63  93  71  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  60  93  66  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  57  82  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  55  88  60  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   78  43  85  52  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  59  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  86  61  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
WINK TX                    87  57  95  65  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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