Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 261027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
427 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

...The main focus of this forecast package will continue to revolve
around the potential for wintry precip this holiday weekend. A
Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for northern and central Lea
county, northern Permian Basin as well as the higher terrain regions
and the Van Horn and Hwy 54 corridor Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning...

Today will be the beginning of an active weather period the next few
days as a large upper low over the Great Basin region promotes
unsettled/moist SW flow aloft, increasing precip chances today
through the holiday weekend. The LLJ has returned with a vengeance
tonight, quickly advecting low level moisture into west Texas and
southeast New Mexico. Dewpoints very high for this time of year and
low temperatures will be rather mild this morning as a result. A few
areas of drizzle/light rain early this morning and expect activity
to increase as we head into the afternoon. Could even see a few
thunderstorms this afternoon as an upper jet impinges on the region
and instability increases. QPF amounts will be fairly low through
this evening however a few stronger storms could result in brief
moderate to heavy rainfall. Will see our final day of above normal
temperatures this afternoon before a strong cold front tomorrow
knocks temps down through the weekend.

Friday, the forecast remains a little more complicated. A strong
cold front will push south through west Texas and southeast New
Mexico Friday morning bringing gusty NE winds and falling
temperatures throughout the day. The NAM seems to have a fairly good
handle on the current movement of the front so have trended winds to
reflect a slightly faster front, entering far northern zones around
midnight tonight/Friday morning (3-6hr earlier than previously
forecasted). This front will become an additional focus for precip
as it pushes through the region. QPF amounts will increase
significantly during this time, particularly across the Permian
Basin region. With temperatures rapidly falling Friday, the big
question remains whether there will be wintry precip or not. It`s
looking pretty likely across northern/central Lea county east into
the northern Permian Basin. These locations along with the mountain
regions and the Van Horn and Hwy 54 corridor remain in a Winter
Storm Watch. Given the expected push of the front, think the colder
temps could make it farther south so went ahead and added southern
Lea, Andrews, Martin, Howard and Scurry counties to the Winter Storm
Watch collection. The popular precip type across these areas look to
be freezing rain and potentially some sleet mixed in across northern
Lea at times. Rain may mix with or completely change over to
freezing rain as early as Friday morning for northern Lea county and
decided to back the Watch up to begin 18Z Friday. Other areas in the
Watch may see freezing precip begin later Friday evening. By
Saturday morning, these areas could see up to 0.25" of ice. Think
the biggest impact to most of these locations will be heavy icing on
elevated surfaces (trees, powerlines, etc.) so wouldn`t be surprised
to see power outages during this time. Certainly not discounting the
possibility of icing on roadways so take special precautions if
driving in these areas. Locations affected as well as timing and
ice accumulations are all subject to change so be sure to check
back to get the latest forecast update. Elsewhere, precip type
looks to remain all rain and when the rain is all said and done,
storm total precip (Thursday-Sunday) looks to range from 1-2.5 "
across portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos and up
to 1" elsewhere. High temperatures Saturday may range from the mid
30s north to the mid 40s south.

Rain chances will slowly come to an end from west to east Saturday
night into Sunday as the upper low out west finally breaks free and
slowly shifts NE. Zonal flow aloft expected by Monday and
temperatures will be in the 50s most areas through Thursday.


BIG SPRING TX                  69  39  39  31  /  50  80  80  80
CARLSBAD NM                    74  42  45  32  /  30  60  70  60
DRYDEN TX                      73  64  69  39  /  40  50  70  70
FORT STOCKTON TX               75  54  61  33  /  40  50  70  80
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  44  47  30  /  30  50  70  60
HOBBS NM                       69  37  37  29  /  30  70  80  70
MARFA TX                       70  51  57  34  /  40  50  70  80
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  42  42  31  /  40  60  80  80
ODESSA TX                      71  42  42  31  /  40  60  80  80
WINK TX                        75  46  46  33  /  40  60  80  80


NM...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Martin...Scurry...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.



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