Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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929
FXUS64 KMAF 211801
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1201 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Northeasterly winds will become southeasterly by late this
afternoon, ahead of a cold front that will push south across the
region overnight tonight and Sunday morning. KHOB could see FROPA
around 09Z, KMAF around 10Z, and KFST around 15Z, with winds
becoming northeasterly and increasing to 12-15KT. Ceilings will
gradually lower behind the front, with MVFR conditions possible by
the last few hours of the forecast period, particularly at KMAF
and KHOB. While there is a chance of some light rain, precip will
likely hold off until just beyond 18Z Sunday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will persist today while a shortwave trough digs
south into the western ConUS. A cold front will move through the
Permian Basin this morning then hang up around the Pecos River. This
front will do little more than briefly shift winds to the N and
hold temps in the 60s across the NE half of the FA. Areas to the
SW will have no problem warming into the 70s with westerly
downsloping winds in place. Windy and dry conditions expected once
again this afternoon could result in a few hours of elevated fire
weather concerns. See the fire weather discussion below for more
details.

A secondary push of cold air will arrive Sunday morning with
falling temperatures expected throughout the day. Meanwhile, the
aforementioned trough will approach the Four Corners region, backing
flow aloft to the SW. Forecast models generate QPF from NE to SW
Sunday afternoon/evening due to increased isentropic upglide
across much of the region. This regime is expected to continue
through Monday morning with best chances NE of the Pecos River.
Although CAA will continue throughout the day Sunday, there remains
great uncertainty on the timing of below freezing temperatures and
therefore when to expect the onset of wintry precip. Will continue
to advertise precip as all rain during the day Sunday but as
temperatures continue to decrease Sunday night, the chances for
wintry precip will increase from N to S.

Sunday night through Monday morning, model forecast soundings
suggest freezing rain as the main precip type with periods of
sleet mixed in as well. Areas across the far south should remain all
rain. Exact ice accumulations are still up in the air but went ahead
and increased amounts particularly across the NE zones. These areas
could receive up to 0.20" of ice before precip diminishes from west
to east Monday afternoon. Timing of greatest impacts look to occur
from 06-12Z Monday which is concerning given it would affect the
Monday morning commute. Decided to hold off on issuing a Winter
Weather Watch due to remaining uncertainties however one may be
needed later if confidence increases for major impacts Monday
morning. For now, will continue strong wording for potentially
dangerous impacts in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Special
Weather Statement.

High temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 20s northeast
to near 50 southwest. Beyond Monday, look for temperatures to
increase but remain slightly below normal through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the previously mentioned shortwave will swing east
across the southern Plains, sending another cold front through the
region. Another upper trough is then progged to dig into the
western ConUS late week with a possible return of freezing/frozen
precip.

FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move into the area this morning bringing cooler
temperatures and higher rh to the region.  However the front is
expected to hang up and may lift back to the north during the
afternoon thus not reaching the Guadalupe Mountains.  20ft winds
today of 10 to 20 mph are possible across the Guadalupes and the
lower elevations should remain warm allowing minimum rh to fall into
the 15 to 20 percent range.  Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for
the Guadalupe Mountains below 6000ft this afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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