Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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436
FXUS64 KMAF 192355
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
655 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A tricky aviation forecast this period, as showers and
thunderstorms continue near KFST and KPEQ. Expect SHRA/TSRA to
gradually diminish/move NE over the next few hours, with SHRA
possible at KINK and KMAF until 03-04Z associated with this
activity. Have handled the precipitation this evening with TEMPOS
at respective TAF sites. The second concern is a cold front that will
drop south through the area this evening. FROPA is expected at
KHOB by 03Z, KMAF aroiund 05Z, and KFST by around 08Z, with winds
increasing and becoming gusty out of the NE. Some -SHRA may
develop along and behind the front, with MVFR ceilings to follow.
MVFR conditions are expected to persist through Friday morning or
perhaps early Friday afternoon, and while additional SHRA/TSRA is
possible, have not included it in any area TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A few light showers are currently moving across the area under
mostly cloudy skies.  An upper level trough is over northern Mexico
just south of California and Arizona. This upper trough is slowly
moving eastward and is increasing upper lift with an upper jet
moving over the region.  A shortwave is also projected to move over
the area as indicated by vorticity maximum.  An approaching cold
front will also increase lift with higher omega values across the
Permian Basin this afternoon and evening.  A surface trough is
expected to strengthen across the area with southwest winds aiding
in compressional warming so temperatures this afternoon will warm up
to above normal values.  These conditions will allow for a chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the CWA beginning this afternoon.
There is a slight chance that a few storms could become strong
across the Davis Mountains and Terrell County where CAPE values will
be the highest; however, this is not likely due to the substantial
cloud cover across this area. Bulk shear from 0 to 6 km will be high
across the whole area but mid-level lapse rates will be marginal.

The cold front will move into the area this evening into the
overnight hours as the upper trough moves closer to the region.
This front will allow for a continued chance of rain and
thunderstorms into tonight.  Temperatures will once again cool
behind the front on Friday with the best chance of rain and isolated
thunderstorms mostly along and south of I-20 but not expecting any
strong storms on Friday since CAPE is expected to be less than 500
J/kg and mid-level lapse rates will be very marginal.  Heavy rain
and localized flash flooding will be a threat starting on Friday
mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Rain and thunderstorms will
continue into Saturday as the upper trough moves over the region.
The heavy rain and flash flood threat on Saturday will shift to
locations along and southwest of the Pecos River.  Did not issue a
Flash Flood Watch at this time due to differences in the models with
speed/location of the upper trough and the possibility of the front
moving through faster than most of the models are indicating.

On Sunday, the upper trough is expected to move eastward so drier
conditions should return to the area with temperatures warming to
above normal on Sunday as a surface trough develops across the
area.  Temperatures are expected to remain above normal until
Wednesday night when another cold front is expected to push through
the area.  Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also increase
across the area with this frontal passage.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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