Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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055
FXUS64 KMAF 221140
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
640 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers with MVFR CIGS/VSBY are the main concern thru the morning
and especially near INK/PEQ/CNM. CIGS are variable depending on
proximity to showers so near term they are weigthed toward
observed CIGS. Some lifting of cloud deck today to above MVFR.
After e-se winds mostly less than 10kts this AM, there will be an
increase 10-15kts in the mid PM hrs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
It has long been known that the greatest flood events in our CWA
are tropical weather related and this has proved no exception.
There have been some incredible floods in the past but this may be
the first time the three major rivers of our CWA (Pecos, Rio
Grande, Colorado) have all had flooding issues at the same time.
That requires not only a great deal of rainfall, but it must be
spread over a large area. The worst flooding is currently occurring
along the Pecos River from Carlsbad in southeast New Mexico to the
city of Pecos. Recent heavy rains have saturated soils across the
area and continued rainfall, even though not as heavy as the past
couple of days, is adding to runoff this morning. Unfortunately it
is exactly this area that models show have the best chance for
additional rainfall today so conditions may be slow to improve.
Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for the Trans Pecos
and southeast New Mexico through today and will cancel it for the
Permian Basin where rainfall should be much less today and lighter
in intensity. Cannot rule out some isolated moderate or even heavy
showers outside the watch but the threat appears to low to justify
continuing it in the Permian Basin. Easterly low level upslope
flow will favor areas west of the Pecos and especially the
Guadalupe Mountains in western Eddy County. It won`t take heavy
rain but a persistent moderate rain in this area would drain into
the creeks and arroyos that feed into the Pecos.

Very high PWATs in excess of 1.8" will be dropping and lower theta-E
values will advect in from the east the next several days
increasing stability and allowing for much less convective
development. An upper level ridge over the Rockies will greatly
amplify by mid week capturing the southern portion of a trough
over the Midwest and retrograding it back towards north Texas.
This trough will bring lower heights but west Texas and eastern
New Mexico will still be on the dry side of this feature so no
widespread rainfall is expected. Daytime heating could allow for
isolated afternoon convection but nothing like we have seen
recently. The lower heights will only translate to near or
slightly below normal high temperatures. No cold fronts are
expected the next seven days though a deep low moving into the
Pacific northwest could bring one beyond this forecast time frame.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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