Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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959
FXUS64 KMAF 190522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming into
West Texas/SE NM ahead of an upper level trough over nrn Baja, and
will result in increasing/lowering cloud cover over the next 24
hours. Models develop a MVFR stratus deck on return flow
overnight, w/some of this making it into KMAF shortly after 12Z.
Otherwise, buffer soundings suggest a widespread cu field
developing by late morning, w/cigs 3.5-6 kft agl. Area radars show
convection already creeping into Culberson County, and this will
develop into western terminals by late morning. Cigs should remain
VFR in convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
VFR conditions across the board this evening with SE winds
prevailing. The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will
be -TSRA chances Saturday morning and afternoon. Current thinking
is for thunderstorms to develop west of the terminals early
Saturday morning and spread east throughout the day. Higher
confidence for convection to develop at CNM first then HOB a few
hours later. Not sure how early activity will develop so continued
PROB30 during the morning hours then put -TSRA in prevailing for
late morning/early afternoon at NM sites. In addition, kept
mention of PROB30 -TSRA at INK and PEQ for the afternoon but was
not confident enough to go prevailing. Confidence is too low for
MAF and FST to include any mention of thunderstorm activity attm.
Adjustments will likely be needed in later TAF cycles. Otherwise,
could see a brief period of MVFR at MAF terminal between 12-16Z
therefore introduced a TEMPO for this time frame.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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