Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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582
FXUS64 KMAF 200541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front can currently be seen on radar just N of LBB moving S.
This front will push through most TAF locations in the 10-13z time
frame. Have low clouds moving down behind this front and also
have low clouds moving up/developing on the moist southerly flow.
Expect MVFR/IFR cigs this morning at HOB/MAF/INK/FST. All TAF
sites should be VFR by this afternoon. Some afternoon storms could
be seen near MAF and FST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of
the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper
troughing over the western ConUS. The recent thunderstorm activity
has given us a short break through much of the morning and early
this afternoon, giving the atmosphere time to recharge a bit.
Several places near the Coyanosa/Pecos/Grandfalls area are still
feeling the lingering effects of yesterday`s heavy rainfall as many
road remain closed due to high water. As a result, an Areal Flood
Warning is still in effect for these areas. Otherwise, we decided to
let the Flash Flood Watch expire at 18Z today but some localized
flash flooding will be possible any thunderstorm that develops today.

Currently have a few showers developing over northern Pecos and
Crane Counties. Should see thunderstorm development increase over
the next few hours as the dryline sharpens near the TX/NM border.
Daytime heating and more than sufficient moisture (dewpoints in the
upper 60s and near 70) will result in plenty of instability to help
initiate strong to severe convection this afternoon. The environment
looks to favor supercell storm modes capable of producing large
hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and not to mention the
potential for a tornado or two. Thunderstorm activity looks to wain
overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

Wednesday...things should be fairly quiet through early afternoon as
a cold front sinks south through the TX Panhandle. This front looks
to arrive sometime Wednesday afternoon with thunderstorms developing
along and behind it, affecting mainly the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos through late evening. Model guidance shows the front
stalling across the CWA overnight with shower and thunderstorm
activity spreading across most areas by Thursday morning. Moist,
easterly flow will persist through the day Thursday as a potent
midlevel shortwave provides upper forcing for ascent through the
overnight hours. A a result, will continue to carry healthy rain
chances through Thursday night and into Friday morning. Thunderstorm
chances will continue through most of the weekend as the upper
trough to the west slowly progresses eastward. May develop westerly
flow aloft by early next week which could result in a short dry
period for our area.

High temperatures will be in the 80s once again tomorrow then a cool
down Thursday due to the cold front and abundant cloud cover expected.
Highs will only warm to the 60s for much of SE NM and northern PB
and 70s to low 80s farther south. Temperatures then begin to warm
back up Friday through the weekend with near normal temperatures
expected by early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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