Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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659
FXUS64 KMAF 211935
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
232 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper trough over the Great Lakes region with
another upper low centered over the west coast/southern California.
The CWA is under west to southwest flow aloft with a surface trough
developing across the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico and
West Texas.  This surface trough will allow for temperatures today
to be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.  Surface winds are
generally out of the southeast allowing for an increase in low-level
moisture.  Omega 500 mb values are expected to increase over across
west and south of the Upper Trans Pecos this afternoon.
Thunderstorms are possible across the area today with models
producing storms along the surface trough out west.  Depending on
how far east the dryline mixes today, storms may develop across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where CAPE values
according to the NAM12 approach 1,000 J/Kg.  Lapse rates will be
good this afternoon and evening areawide with some places seeing
values of 8+ degrees Celsius/km.  Zero to 6 km bulk shear values are
expected to be impressive today, so a few severe storms are possible
today.

The dryline is mostly east of the CWA on Wednesday with dry west
downslope winds behind it.  This will allow temperatures to warm up
even more on Wednesday.  The west coast upper trough will move
closer to the region on Thursday and a shortwave will pass over the
area.  The NAM80 is showing increased 500 mb omega values across the
Davis Mountains into the Permian Basin Thursday afternoon.  Storms
will be possible across the Davis Mountains, Lower Trans Pecos, and
the eastern Permian Basin on Thursday although it does not appear
that they will be severe since CAPE will be very low and lapse rates
will struggle to reach 7 degrees Celsius/Km across this area.  On
Friday, the upper trough will pass over the Central Plains with the
base of the trough passing over the CWA.  Strong winds in the jet
associated with the base of the upper trough will mix down to the
surface resulting in gusty west winds across the CWA Friday
afternoon.  Another upper trough will be over the Desert Southwest
on Saturday with southwest flow aloft over the area.  West to
southwest downslope surface winds will continue across the area on
Saturday allowing for temperatures to remain above normal and
keeping conditions dry.  As the upper trough approaches the region
on Sunday, thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Permian
Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos due to a dryline forming across the
area.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and warm conditions today have combined with gusty westerly
winds to create near critical fire weather conditions in the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Winds will subside this evening, but recovery
will be poor to fair in the Guadalupes, the adjacent SE NM Plains
and along the Van Horn/Hwy 54 corridor.  Westerly winds will
increase Wednesday and push the dryline well east.  Critical Fire wx
conditions are still expected in the Guadalupe Mtns, so the Fire
Weather Watch will remain in effect there.  In addition, portions of
the SE NM Plains and Van Horn/Hwy 54 corridor have been added to the
Fire Wx Watch Wednesday as wind speeds could be strong enough there
for critical conditions.

Recovery will be poor to fair Wednesday night from SE NM, southward
across the Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mtns, Van Horn area, Marfa
Plateau and Presidio Valley.  On Thursday, the Guadalupe Mtns and SE
NM Plains could have near critical to critical fire weather
conditions, but conditions appear too marginal to issue a Fire Wx
Watch at this time.  However, widespread critical fire weather
conditions could occur on Friday as an upper storm system passes by
just north of the region, temperatures rise above normal and
westerly winds rise to 20 to 30 mph sustained.  If trends continue,
a Watch will be issued in the next day or so for Friday.  Dry
conditions will persist through next weekend, with more critical
fire weather possible both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  86  56  84  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              62  88  58  85  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  84  50  83  /  20   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  91  64  87  /  20  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  89  59  81  /  10   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  76  52  73  /  10   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   51  81  51  82  /  10   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   43  77  48  72  /  20   0   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  88  57  85  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  87  57  84  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    58  87  53  86  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

67/80

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