Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 210457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1057 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015


Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.



A strong, fast-moving cold front currently moving south through
eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle will reach KHOB soon
after the start of the forecast period and reach KFST by around 10Z.
Winds will shift to the north and gust to 30-40KT through mid-
morning, and then veer to the northeast with gusts diminishing to 15-
25KT through the afternoon. Winds will then be light by Saturday
evening through the end of the forecast period. While localized
blowing dust is possible, have not included mention. VFR will be the


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2015/

Nothing has changed from the previous forecast. A cold front
currently in northwestern Kansas will drop south overnight
arriving in northern Lea County around midnight and quickly moving
through the remainder of the CWA by sunrise. Pressures behind the
front will increase at a rate of 3mb/hr, causing northeast winds
to increase to 25 to 30mph tomorrow morning, and will be much
higher at Guadalupe Pass where winds may exceed 60 mph. These
winds will keep the boundary layer mixed and combined with strong
cold air advection do not expect winds to increase much off of
morning lows despite mostly clear skies.

High pressure will quickly settle over the area causing winds to
become light overnight. This combined with clear skies will be
optimal conditions for radiational cooling and the models have
been very consistent in showing this. Therefore have gone ahead
and upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Hard Freeze Warning meaning we
are expecting lows to drop down below 29 degrees. Many areas have
not even seen their first freeze so precautions for sensitive
plants and animals need to be made. Terrell County may be the
lone outlier with lows only reaching 29-32 degrees (light freeze),
but do not want to break up the NPW into another section for a
(light) Freeze Warning and thus kept it in with the other

Zonal flow returns early next week allowing temperatures to
slowly climb back above normal. A deep upper low will develop in
the western U.S. late next week backing upper flow from a more
southwesterly direction and drawing moisture back into the region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the low
late Wednesday into Thursday. The low will bring another strong
front south on Friday with the -SHRA/TS transitioning into -RA
behind the front. At this time it appears the precipitation behind
the front will remain in liquid form but cannot rule out the
chance for freezing or frozen precip Friday night. Fortunately we
have a week to monitor this situation.



NM...Hard Freeze Warning from 8 PM Saturday to 8 AM MST Sunday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM MST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM CST Sunday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


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