Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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205
FXUS64 KMAF 231931
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
229 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is very light showers across the western CWA with
mostly cloudy skies.  The Flash Flood Watch continues across Eddy
County and the Guadalupe Mountains through 6 PM MDT.  There is still
flooding along the Pecos River so an areal flood warning remains in
effect this afternoon from near the town of Pecos northward to the
New Mexico state line. A decreasing trend in PWAT values is
indicated from the 12z MAF sounding yesterday of 1.72 inches to the
12z sounding this morning of 1.27 inches. The same downward trend is
also indicated on the El Paso sounding.  There is still good lift
along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos today so more precipitation
is possible today especially for the areas under the watch.  Due to
vorticity maximum being over the Trans Pecos, have added slight
chance pops in for areas along and north of the Davis Mountains but
do not expect much accumulation today. Since there is a chance for
rain across areas under the Flash Flood Watch, left the watch in
effect until 00z despite having decreasing PWAT values.

The region will be under generally north to northwest flow aloft
with an upper ridge centered across the four corners region and a
trough over the Upper Midwest on Wednesday.  This upper flow pattern
will allow for shortwaves to move over the area with much of the
upper lift being over the eastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans
Pecos.  A slight chance of thunderstorms is across the area for
Wednesday as a result.  Not much is expected to change on Thursday
as enhanced lift remains over the area so a slight chance of rain
will continue.

On Friday, the upper trough over the Upper Midwest will move
eastward so the central conus will be under upper ridging.  The
upper lift will start to decrease over the area so chances of
precipitation will further decrease starting Friday.  An upper
trough will move over the western conus on Saturday with the eastern
two thirds of the conus under upper ridging aloft.  This will
continue to result in drying conditions for the area.  Early next
week, the models move the western conus upper trough eastward while
developing another upper low/trough over eastern TX and OK.  The
models differ on the position of these upper troughs going into the
middle of next week but generally expect the two trough to come
closer together.  As of now, expect the CWA to be mostly dry heading
into the early to middle part of next week but will need to continue
monitoring as models come into better agreement.  Expect
temperatures through the forecast period to remain near normal since
no cold fronts or heavy rain is anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  81  62  79  /  20  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              66  80  63  81  /  20  20  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                63  83  61  79  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  69  87  66  85  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           66  85  63  83  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  78  58  73  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   61  81  60  77  /  10  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   55  78  53  74  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  81  63  80  /  20  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  66  81  63  80  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                    67  85  64  81  /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/80

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