Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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406
FXUS64 KMAF 272256
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
556 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all area terminals. Currently have gusty
westerly winds across the region this evening under sunny skies.
Gusts will subside over the next hour or two and back to the SW,
remaining below 10kt overnight. Otherwise, S/SE winds expected
Saturday with elevated gusts at MAF and FST through the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The dryline has pushed east into west central Texas today giving
us our first day without convection anywhere in our area in a
while. You could feel the dry air this morning with low
temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s, down from the upper 60s and
70s seen the past several days. Relative humidities this
afternoon are generally down in the teens but fortunately winds
are remaining light, preventing critical fire weather conditions
from developing.

An upper low will deepen over the west coast Saturday causing
pressure falls in the Rockies and pulling the dryline back west
into the Permian Basin. An upper ridge axis over west Texas will
prevent anything other than isolated to widely scattered
convection from developing, though shear values will be high
enough to allow one or two storms to be severe. Sunday the ridge
axis shifts east and the dryline pushes farther west...that
combined with a weak shortwave trough moving across the area and
we should see an increase in convection and potentially severe
storms. Storms will remain in the forecast through the middle of
the week due to slow easterly movement of the west coast low and
again there will be a chance for a few storms to become severe
each day. The low will finally move east of the area by Thursday
or Friday pushing dry air into the western Permian Basin and
keeping rain chances mainly in the eastern Permian Basin and
lower Trans Pecos.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  94  65  87 /   0  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       56  94  62  97 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         65  93  69  91 /   0  20  20  40
Fort Stockton                  61  95  68  95 /   0  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 59  85  60  89 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          54  92  63  88 /   0   0  10  40
Marfa                          49  88  51  89 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           58  95  68  90 /   0  10  20  40
Odessa                         60  95  68  91 /   0  10  20  40
Wink                           56  96  69  96 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49

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