Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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878
FXUS64 KMAF 010513
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1205 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a slight chance of low ceilings for MAF around 12z;
otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.  Areas of very light rain
showers will continue to dissipate. Winds will be light out of the
south to southwest overnight with stronger winds beginning around
16z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area in southwest Mexico will move
east tonight toward the Big Bend and weaken as another trough
moves onshore on the west Coast. This trough will produce a slight
chance of thunderstorms overnight across mainly west Texas. Not
expecting much if any severe weather given the extensive cloud
shield with a weakening upper system approaching after peak
heating with weak dryline/convergence and marginal shear.

The upper level trough will quickly move east and be replaced by
zonal flow through the weekend. A surface lee low/trough will
reform in this flow with low level thermal ridging and downslope
flow producing much above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday. In addition breezy to windy conditions will develop
across southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos and the
northern and central Permian Basin by Thursday afternoon as winds
increase through the column. High winds are not out of the
question in the Guadalupe Mountains and later shifts will need
to monitor for a high wind watch for Thursday in that area.

An upper level trough moving across the northern states is
forecast to drop a cold front through the region Friday
with temperatures dropping back to below normal by
Saturday.

West to southwest flow aloft will continue next Sunday through
next Tuesday with much above normal temperatures quickly
developing again. A dryline will develop and push east each day
from the eastern slopes of the mountains in the morning, to the
central or eastern Permian Basin by late afternoon. Late afternoon
and or early evening isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out
east of the dryline but confidence was not high enough at this
time to mention in the forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Dawson...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

99

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