Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

FXUS64 KMAF 200930

430 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015


A cold front currently along a line from roughly Aspermont to Tatum
to just south of Roswell will continue its southward push well ahead
of schedule, moving through the area during the morning hours.
Widespread cloudcover will fill in behind the front as it moves
south, and looking upstream, a few showers and thunderstorms
began to develop along and behind the front as it moved through
Lubbock, which could continue into the northern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains this morning, though no severe weather
is expected with these storms. Temperatures behind the front are
quite cool for this time of year, with early morning temperatures
across the northern Panhandle in the low to middle 40s. The cool
air will continue filtering south behind the front today, thus
have sided with cooler guidance across southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin, with highs only expected to make it into the
upper 60s and 70s, with around 80 degrees possible closer to the
Pecos River.

The front will slow its southward progression by this afternoon,
with temperatures across the Lower Trans Pecos and points south
still expected to climb well into the 80s, with some 90s possible
along the Rio Grande.  While forcing along the front itself will not
be great, strong boundary later heating and steepening lapse rates
are expected to be enough to generate convection once again this
afternoon, mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos and far southern
Permian Basin. The Storm Prediction Center has included the
aforementioned area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, with
the primary threats expected to be large hail and damaging winds.
Thunderstorms are possible across much of the remainder of the area
today as well, though initiation will be dependent on how long low
clouds remain entrenched in the wake of this morning`s cold front.

Precipitation chances will increase tonight through Thursday night
area-wide as disturbances embedded in the southwest flow aloft move
over the region, interacting with the stalled frontal boundary and
moist low levels, providing ample lift for showers and
thunderstorms. All models generate copious amounts of QPF during
the Thursday- Thursday night time frame, thus, locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern, especially for those locations that
remain saturated from previous rainfall events this week. Ample
cloudcover as well as precipitation on Thursday will keep
temperatures across southeast New Mexico and west Texas quite cool
for this time of year, with highs generally in the 60s and 70s,
around 20 degrees below normal for some locations. The forecast
high for Midland on Thursday of 65 degrees, if verified, would be
a new record low maximum temperature for May 21. The current
record is 68 degrees, which occurred May 21, 1943.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday, and continue to climb
through the weekend. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
also remain through the weekend, first as a potent shortwave
ejects across the area on Friday ahead of the larger scale western
CONUS trough, and then ahead of the trough which looks to finally
begin to progress eastward on Saturday. The trough will develop a
positive tilt as it lifts across the region on Sunday, with weak
ridging developing in its wake for Monday and Tuesday. This would
spell a break in precipitation early next week, with temperatures
climbing back into the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday,
much closer to normal for this time of year.


ANDREWS TX                 75  56  64  56  /  30  40  50  70
BIG SPRING TX              78  57  65  58  /  40  50  50  60
CARLSBAD NM                81  57  66  56  /  10  40  60  50
DRYDEN TX                  87  69  80  68  /  30  40  50  60
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  62  74  63  /  20  40  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          78  55  66  55  /  10  30  50  50
HOBBS NM                   74  52  61  53  /  20  40  60  60
MARFA TX                   83  55  74  52  /  10  20  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  55  65  59  /  30  40  50  60
ODESSA TX                  76  55  66  58  /  30  40  50  60
WINK TX                    82  63  69  59  /  20  40  60  60






Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:

Check us out on the internet at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.