Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 210542

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

06Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the potential for
low cigs affecting terminals tonight through mid morning Saturday.
Currently, low stratus can be seen on satellite developing just SE
of FST. Expect MVFR cigs to continue to expand northward, affecting
FST, MAF, INK and HOB through mid morning. Will continue to monitor
current trends overnight for the possibility of low clouds reaching
PEQ and CNM. Otherwise, elevated SE winds expected through the TAF


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/


WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under
weak upper-lvl ridging between two systems, one over the upper MS
Valley and the other over northern CA.  At the lwr lvls, stratus
that has plagued the area over the past few days has burned off
w/the exit of yesterday`s trough, w/afternoon temps approaching
normal once again.  Vis sat imagery shows a cu field developing
along the western mtns, but struggling to develop convection attm.
Can`t rule out an isolated cell or two over the Davis Mtns before
the afternoon is out, but this looks to end w/loss of daytime

Upper ridge is forecast to amplify a bit over the next few days as
the west coast trough moves inland, w/a weak dryline developing over
mid-CWA Saturday afternoon.  Models hint at developing a line of
convection along this feature Saturday afternoon, w/steep mid-lvl
LRs in excess of 7C/km east of the dryline.  A 40+kt LLJ is forecast
after sunset, to sustain convection into the overnight hours.
Sunday, leeside troughing intensifies, and westerly flow will
sharpen up the dryline even more than Saturday, and push it east
somewhat.  Mucapes east of this feature ramp up to over 3000J/kg
during the afternoon over the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, w/mid-lvl LRs
of almost 8C/km, and deep lyr shear of 35-40kts.  Thus, a svr threat
will be in play both days east of the dryline...mainly large hail,
but a wind threat, as well.  We`ll emphasize this in the HWO. The
dryline is then forecast to maintain form over the eastern zones
into the extended, w/slight chances of convection in SW flow aloft
to the east each day.  Next good chance for convection in the
extended may be next Thursday, when one of the more agressive models
brings a trough into the area.  However, other models disagree attm.

For temps, things have finally returned to normal, w/AOA temps
expected into the extended under either the ridge or SW flow


Big Spring                     68  90  67  90 /  30  30  20  10
Carlsbad                       57  90  59  93 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         72  90  72  93 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  68  92  63  94 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 57  83  56  84 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          60  88  56  90 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                          52  85  49  88 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           67  91  68  94 /  30  20  10  10
Odessa                         66  93  66  93 /  30  20  10  10
Wink                           64  94  61  96 /  20  10  10   0


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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