Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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893
FXUS64 KMAF 222258
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...See 00Z Aviation discussion below.


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF issuance...
Looks like the only concern for the next couple of hours will be
the possibility of TSRA near KPEQ and KFST. For now...will leave
out of the TAF`s since it looks like any convection will die out
before reaching those sites...but will continue to monitor radar
trends. Looks like the convection will decrease rapidly after
sunset. There should be less chance of any TSRA on Thursday across
the TAF sites as the ridge builds west over the Southern Plains.

Strobin
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has persisted over the region the past few
weeks gave way to scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday.
Storms developed within a high theta-e axis near a sfc trough and
along remnant outflow boundaries. The ridge has changed little in
strength today, but has begun to move west. Expect the greatest
coverage of storms this afternoon to stay across the western half
of the CWA, roughly west of a Seminole to Odessa to Ft. Stockton
line. As was the case yesterday, heavy rain will be a possibility
with slow storm motions and PWATs near 1.5".

The upper ridge strengthens and drifts back across the area into
this weekend. Thunderstorm chances will become limited to the
higher terrain each day with temperatures climbing back into the
90`s and 100`s.

There is an indication in the long-range models that the upper ridge
may shift into the Four-Corners region late next week. This would
help cool temperatures a few degrees and might even allow a better
chance of storms back in the forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

33

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