Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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112
FXUS64 KMAF 200533
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1233 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the potential for
low cigs/vis Friday morning. Currently have clear skies across area
terminals with light east/southeasterly winds in place. Expect MVFR
cigs to develop westward over the next several hours, affecting MAF,
HOB and potentially INK through mid morning. Will keep other
terminals VFR for now but will continue to monitor current trends
and amend if needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions return to all
terminals by mid morning with SE winds prevailing through the end
of the TAF period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Precipitation chances will end in the short term tonight through
Friday night as an upper level trough across Texas pushes east of
the region. In its wake upper ridging will take place allowing
temperatures to rebound to more normal values by Friday afternoon
under sunny skies.

The upper ridge will move east of the forecast area by Saturday
and be replaced by southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the next
couple of upper level Pacific storm systems. A persistent dryline
will be a fixture Saturday and Sunday with temperatures rebounding
to at or slightly above normal. Thunderstorms will be possible
ahead of the dryline mainly in the Permian Basin due to weak
upper level disturbances within the subtropical jet providing
lift above the dryline both days.

By next week the mid level winds are forecast to increase and become
a tad more westerly. This should allow the dryline to push further
east than previous days toward the eastern Permian Basin. The
subtropical upper jet with embedded disturbances is forecast to
remain in place so thunderstorms still look possible each day
mainly across the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
Region of west Texas. Temperatures will remain at or above normal
with low level thermal ridging in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  85  67  86 /   0  10  20  30
Carlsbad                       58  91  60  91 /  10  10  20   0
Dryden                         67  88  69  92 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  64  90  66  92 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  82  57  82 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                          58  87  61  88 /   0  20  20  10
Marfa                          51  85  52  86 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           64  88  68  91 /   0  10  30  20
Odessa                         64  88  68  91 /   0  10  30  20
Wink                           63  91  65  94 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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