Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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525
FXUS64 KMAF 062319
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
619 PM CDT Wed May 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A moist southerly low level jet will develop across west Texas
early this evening and result in gusty south winds at KFST and
KMAF and KPEQ this evening and continue until after midnight.
In addition MVFR conditions will develop at KMAF, KINK and KHOB
between 06z and 09z and continue through 13-14Z. VFR conditions
are expected at all the terminals by 15Z Thursday with west to
southwest winds of 10 to 25 mph and gusty.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT Wed May 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Short term, the dryline appears to be located from near Lamesa
to Midland to Fort Stockton. The boundary is retreating, meaning
that moisture and instability are now increasing over the central
Permian Basin. And while there`s some agitated MOGR CU along the
boundary, the clouds look soft and suppressed, which is what you
might expect to see in an area of subsidence behind the short wave
trough which helped to set the stage for yesterday`s tornadic
storms. There is a possibility -- about a 1 in 3 chance -- that an
updraft or three can take hold along the dryline in the next few
hours. If so, these storms will rapidly become severe, with
discrete supercells being the dominant mode. CAMs have suggested this
for the past few hours now, generally northeast of Midland and near
Balmorhea. But the only updraft strong enough to gin up an anvil
has been on the Borden/Dawson county line.

Over the next few days, thunderstorm chances will shift north and
east away from west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. While the
dryline will retreat to near the mountains each morning and mix
east to the western Low Rolling Plains in the afternoon, atmospheric
conditions (specifically an increasing EML) look to suppress
activity.  Temperatures will warm up to a bit above seasonal norms
with south winds during the night/early morning becoming southwest
during the late morning and early afternoon hours. A cold front is
forecast to arrive sometime in the Sunday evening/Monday morning
time frame, bringing with it cooler temperatures and also an
increased chance of rain. In fact, if certain models are to be
believed, then the pattern could become rather wet from the Davis
Mountains north across the southeastern New Mexican plains. Too
far out to get rambunctious with the PoPs, and so will take a wait-
and-see approach.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/70

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