Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 180538

1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

See 06Z aviation discussion below.


Expecting mostly VFR conditions through the period though brief
MVRF CIGs may appear in southeast NM 12-18Z. Light northeast winds
through the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014/

A weak cold front is INVOF of Pecos River and will lose momentum
near e slopes of mtns this evening. Meanwhile satellite does show
shrtwv trof INVOF AZ which will track across AZ/NM overnight with
enuf mid level lift and instability with trof axis for elevated
TSRA tonight/SAT AM, mainly across SE NM. There will be drier
surface air there however, in association with surface ridging,
thus favoring light precip amounts. Said surface ridging and
clouds, especially n of I-20 will make for noticeably cooler temps
Sat, U60s-U70s. Low level mstr will increase some Sunday, but more
interesting wx will be off to the w of CWFA in closer proximity
to an upper low that develops near Baja Calif. Sunday`s high temps
will be only a little a warmer with less surface ridging, but
still below normal. Said upper low will slowly move closer thru
Monday, near El Paso City or just to the s, so mid level flow will
back giving a little more time for low levels to moisten further.
7h-5h LRs of 6-6.5 C/km suggestive of SHRA with a few TSRA. Good
agreement among models that best PoPs will be across the w-sw CWFA
and current fcst will only need minor adjustments. Upper low will
weaken to the w Monday night into Tuesday and better PoPs will
remain to the w with seasonal to just below normal temps.
Thereafter differences appear in models with ECMWF deepening a
trof/precip farther w than GFS. Little change to forecast with
model uncertainty for now






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