Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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483
FXUS64 KMAF 181039
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
539 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile opening up and set to move
over West Texas/SE NM in SW flow aloft later today. TAFs will be
messy, but most terminals should stay VFR through 00Z Friday except
KCNM, which should vary between MVFR and VFR at times. Lwr
cigs/visibilities can be expected in areas of direct convection.
forecast soundings suggest IFR cigs at KCNM/KHOB after 00Z, and
MVFR at KMAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44

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093
FXUS64 KMAF 180908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  81  68  /  70  40  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  68  84  70  /  60  30  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                79  68  84  67  /  70  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  91  73  91  73  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  69  86  69  /  50  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  63  78  64  /  70  60  40  30
HOBBS NM                   78  65  79  65  /  70  60  60  40
MARFA TX                   80  62  81  61  /  50  50  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  69  83  70  /  70  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  83  69  82  70  /  70  40  40  30
WINK TX                    84  69  86  70  /  70  50  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44/72

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838
FXUS64 KMAF 180533
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR cigs are forecast to develop KHOB/KINK/KMAF overnight, but
scatter out to VFR after sunrise. Have inserted a mention of
convection for KMAF to cover the next few hours. Otherwise, OVC
VFR cigs should prevail next 18 hours, w/cigs deteriorating after
00Z Friday. Expect MVFR cigs KCNM/KMAF, and IFR KHOB near the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
There is scattered convection from the Davis Mountains to the
Permian Basin though lightning has been somewhat infrequent.
Therefore have limited TS to only the NM TAF sites for now and AMD
if needed. MVFR CIGs are forecast to arrive near 12Z and last for
about 6 hours but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not
they will actually materialize, and if so at what level.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44

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131
FXUS64 KMAF 172310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
There is scattered convection from the Davis Mountains to the
Permian Basin though lightning has been somewhat infrequent.
Therefore have limited TS to only the NM TAF sites for now and AMD
if needed. MVFR CIGs are forecast to arrive near 12Z and last for
about 6 hours but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not
they will actually materialize, and if so at what level.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

10

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623
FXUS64 KMAF 172003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  78  68  81  /  50  70  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              70  80  69  84  /  50  60  40  50
CARLSBAD NM                68  76  68  83  /  60  70  60  50
DRYDEN TX                  73  91  74  91  /  20  40  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  83  71  86  /  50  50  30  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  74  63  78  /  60  60  60  40
HOBBS NM                   65  74  65  78  /  60  60  50  60
MARFA TX                   61  79  62  81  /  40  60  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  80  69  83  /  50  60  40  40
ODESSA TX                  69  79  69  82  /  50  60  40  40
WINK TX                    69  82  70  86  /  50  60  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

49/27

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366
FXUS64 KMAF 171727
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern around this forecast is potential for TSRA. Visible
satellite shows less clouds today than previou several days and
LI/s show there is surface based destablization ongoing. Surface
boundaries are lacking so initially higher terrain w of TAF sites
is favored for initiation which may then move into/near CNM
first. Overnight good agreement that storms may impact INK/HOB/PEQ
TAFS. Have opted to include TEMPO TSRA CNM/HOB and PROB30
elsewhere, except FST, at 04Z. MVFR CIGS/vsby with TSRA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

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050
FXUS64 KMAF 171148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds have been slow to develop so have raised forecasted cigs.
Some fog possible.  Expect mainly VFR conditions with limited MVFR
cigs and vsbys.  Best chance of heavy showers at CNM and HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

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693
FXUS64 KMAF 170933
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  79  66  /  40  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              86  68  81  67  /  40  20  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                84  67  78  66  /  60  60  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  88  72  87  71  /  20  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  70  87  70  /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  64  74  64  /  60  60  30  40
HOBBS NM                   79  64  74  64  /  50  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   83  61  79  60  /  20  20  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  67  81  67  /  40  20  30  20
ODESSA TX                  86  67  80  67  /  40  20  30  20
WINK TX                    88  67  86  67  /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

72/44

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105
FXUS64 KMAF 170535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling ceilings overnight with cigs becoming MVFR with some
IFR possible by 12z. Best shower/storm chances today will be at
CNM and HOB... and to a lesser extend INK and PEQ.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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940
FXUS64 KMAF 162336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Current VFR conditions are expected to drop to MVFR again tonight
and possibly to IFR by 12Z. -SHRA is moving off to the east and we
should catch a break from the rain tonight with more showers
developing tomorrow. There may be some lightning but it will be
infrequent so will keep -SHRA in the TAFs for now and AMD to TSRA
as/if needed. All sites should return to VFR around 18Z Wed.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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040
FXUS64 KMAF 162023
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  79  66  79  /  30  40  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  83  /  30  30  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                67  79  66  81  /  60  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  72  89  72  89  /  20  20  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  83  70  86  /  20  30  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  74  61  75  /  50  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  77  63  79  /  40  50  50  50
MARFA TX                   61  78  61  83  /  10  30  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  80  69  83  /  30  30  40  50
ODESSA TX                  68  81  69  81  /  30  40  40  50
WINK TX                    69  83  69  87  /  30  40  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/27

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439
FXUS64 KMAF 161716
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have mostly lifted across the TAFs sites, except at HOB
where -SHRA are moving thru. Visible imagery indicates clouds
will hang around thru the day and we are watching cu field expand to
the e/se of MAf where there is some sunshine and the potential for
SHRA to develop from se-nw into the MAF area this PM. Otherwise
tonight have included TEMPO TSRA at CNM and have brought MVFR CIGS
back in at all sites around 09Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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371
FXUS64 KMAF 161139
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
639 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling cigs as low clouds over the South Plains hiding
under extensive mid cloud deck move south. Will see development
of MVFR cigs and vsbys as some fog forms.  Best chance of rain/storms
will be at CNM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, under perpetually OVC skies.  Sfc obs show a weak cold
front in the S. Plains, but models stall it just north of the FA
this morning.  To the SW, T.S. Odile was nearly halfway up the Baja
peninsula, and looks to be the source region for rainfall the next
few days.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in w/a pwats of 1.67", which is about 2
STD DEVs from normal for this time of year.  Models maintain these
high pwats thru at least Saturday night, w/Tds at KMAF remaining at
64F or better during the duration.  Expect current convection to
develop further and intensify today as a vort band from Odile
develops into the area from the west and over the top of the upper
ridge to the south.  Considered issuing a FFA for wrn zones today,
but would rather wait until Odile has made her turn to the NE.
Otherwise, models keep breaking off disturbances from Odile over the
next few days, and sending them E-SE thru the region.  Given
saturated soils from last week`s rains, FFG area-wide will remain
low, and the flash flood threat will be the main concern.  We`ll
continue to emphasize this in the HWO for now, as well as an SPS.

For temps, overcast skies look to dominate most of this forecast,
w/plenty of mid/high lvl moisture spinning off Odile.  Thus, we`ve
generally narrowed the diurnal spread of the MOS numbers, w/H85 temp
trends and forecast soundings suggesting staying closer to the
warmer GFS as opposed to the cooler ECMWF.  Saturday night,
long-range models are in agreement in bringing a cold front thru the
area, courtesy of an upper trough forecast to dig into the MS
Valley.  This should knock temps down to below-normal Sunday, and
scour excess moisture from the area.  We`ve raised POPs Saturday
night for fropa.

Only other concerns are the Rio Grande, where releases from Luis
Leon may aggravate things later in the week.  Stay tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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846
FXUS64 KMAF 160915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
415 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, under perpetually OVC skies.  Sfc obs show a weak cold
front in the S. Plains, but models stall it just north of the FA
this morning.  To the SW, T.S. Odile was nearly halfway up the Baja
peninsula, and looks to be the source region for rainfall the next
few days.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in w/a pwats of 1.67", which is about 2
STD DEVs from normal for this time of year.  Models maintain these
high pwats thru at least Saturday night, w/Tds at KMAF remaining at
64F or better during the duration.  Expect current convection to
develop further and intensify today as a vort band from Odile
develops into the area from the west and over the top of the upper
ridge to the south.  Considered issuing a FFA for wrn zones today,
but would rather wait until Odile has made her turn to the NE.
Otherwise, models keep breaking off disturbances from Odile over the
next few days, and sending them E-SE thru the region.  Given
saturated soils from last week`s rains, FFG area-wide will remain
low, and the flash flood threat will be the main concern.  We`ll
continue to emphasize this in the HWO for now, as well as an SPS.

For temps, overcast skies look to dominate most of this forecast,
w/plenty of mid/high lvl moisture spinning off Odile.  Thus, we`ve
generally narrowed the diurnal spread of the MOS numbers, w/H85 temp
trends and forecast soundings suggesting staying closer to the
warmer GFS as opposed to the cooler ECMWF.  Saturday night,
long-range models are in agreement in bringing a cold front thru the
area, courtesy of an upper trough forecast to dig into the MS
Valley.  This should knock temps down to below-normal Sunday, and
scour excess moisture from the area.  We`ve raised POPs Saturday
night for fropa.

Only other concerns are the Rio Grande, where releases from Luis
Leon may aggravate things later in the week.  Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  65  81  66  /  20  10  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              80  69  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                77  68  80  66  /  30  20  40  50
DRYDEN TX                  88  71  87  71  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  68  84  70  /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  60  75  63  /  30  30  50  30
HOBBS NM                   73  64  79  64  /  20  10  30  40
MARFA TX                   77  61  76  60  /  10  10  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  68  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  79  69  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  68  85  69  /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/44

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846
FXUS64 KMAF 160915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
415 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, under perpetually OVC skies.  Sfc obs show a weak cold
front in the S. Plains, but models stall it just north of the FA
this morning.  To the SW, T.S. Odile was nearly halfway up the Baja
peninsula, and looks to be the source region for rainfall the next
few days.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in w/a pwats of 1.67", which is about 2
STD DEVs from normal for this time of year.  Models maintain these
high pwats thru at least Saturday night, w/Tds at KMAF remaining at
64F or better during the duration.  Expect current convection to
develop further and intensify today as a vort band from Odile
develops into the area from the west and over the top of the upper
ridge to the south.  Considered issuing a FFA for wrn zones today,
but would rather wait until Odile has made her turn to the NE.
Otherwise, models keep breaking off disturbances from Odile over the
next few days, and sending them E-SE thru the region.  Given
saturated soils from last week`s rains, FFG area-wide will remain
low, and the flash flood threat will be the main concern.  We`ll
continue to emphasize this in the HWO for now, as well as an SPS.

For temps, overcast skies look to dominate most of this forecast,
w/plenty of mid/high lvl moisture spinning off Odile.  Thus, we`ve
generally narrowed the diurnal spread of the MOS numbers, w/H85 temp
trends and forecast soundings suggesting staying closer to the
warmer GFS as opposed to the cooler ECMWF.  Saturday night,
long-range models are in agreement in bringing a cold front thru the
area, courtesy of an upper trough forecast to dig into the MS
Valley.  This should knock temps down to below-normal Sunday, and
scour excess moisture from the area.  We`ve raised POPs Saturday
night for fropa.

Only other concerns are the Rio Grande, where releases from Luis
Leon may aggravate things later in the week.  Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  65  81  66  /  20  10  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              80  69  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                77  68  80  66  /  30  20  40  50
DRYDEN TX                  88  71  87  71  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  68  84  70  /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  60  75  63  /  30  30  50  30
HOBBS NM                   73  64  79  64  /  20  10  30  40
MARFA TX                   77  61  76  60  /  10  10  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  68  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  79  69  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  68  85  69  /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/44

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865
FXUS64 KMAF 160543
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have widespread mid and high clouds with increasing low clouds expected.
VFR conditions will deteriorate with cigs becoming mainly MVFR with some
IFR around sunrise for CNM and HOB.  Vsbys should be VFR or high MVFR with
a little fog possible.  Could also see a few light showers overnight.
Wind light and variable becoming E to SE during the day.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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865
FXUS64 KMAF 160543
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have widespread mid and high clouds with increasing low clouds expected.
VFR conditions will deteriorate with cigs becoming mainly MVFR with some
IFR around sunrise for CNM and HOB.  Vsbys should be VFR or high MVFR with
a little fog possible.  Could also see a few light showers overnight.
Wind light and variable becoming E to SE during the day.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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341
FXUS64 KMAF 152301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight, but MVFR ceilings are
expected to form late.  Will include temporary MVFR, and a few
IFR, ceilings and visibilities at all but KFST and KPEQ for now.
A weak cold front will move south into the region late tonight,
and likely promote development of more MVFR ceilings.  KHOB is
most likely to be affected.  Ceilings should rise through late
morning, but TSRA will be possible at most TAF sites Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  77  67  74  /  30  50  20  50
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  79  /  20  50  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                67  75  68  75  /  30  40  30  50
DRYDEN TX                  71  86  72  86  /  20  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  80  68  81  /  20  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  72  60  70  /  30  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  76  64  74  /  30  50  20  50
MARFA TX                   60  76  61  76  /  30  40  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  81  69  78  /  20  40  20  40
ODESSA TX                  67  80  69  77  /  20  40  20  40
WINK TX                    68  80  70  81  /  30  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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428
FXUS64 KMAF 151912
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  77  67  74  /  30  50  20  50
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  79  /  20  50  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                67  75  68  75  /  30  40  30  50
DRYDEN TX                  71  86  72  86  /  20  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  80  68  81  /  20  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  72  60  70  /  30  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  76  64  74  /  30  50  20  50
MARFA TX                   60  76  61  76  /  30  40  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  81  69  78  /  20  40  20  40
ODESSA TX                  67  80  69  77  /  20  40  20  40
WINK TX                    68  80  70  81  /  30  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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276
FXUS64 KMAF 151712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
Flight conditions finally improving early this afternoon as cigs
begin to scatter and lift. Currently have all but FST and PEQ
reporting MVFR but expect to see VFR conditions at all terminals by
19-20Z. Could see some scattered convection later this afternoon
near the mountain regions but confidence is too low attm to mention
at CNM or PEQ. Thunderstorms chances will increase across the region
Tuesday morning but will hold off on adding mention in the TAFs
until we get a better handle on timing and location. Otherwise, MVFR
cigs look to return early Tuesday morning at CNM, HOB and MAF. Cigs
could be lower but opted to stay on the conservative side and make
any adjustments needed in later issuances.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
It has been amazing lately how we have gone from very dry to
having showers on the radar every day. Much of this can be
credited to Hurricane Odile currently making landfall in the Baja
of Mexico. This storm will have to be very closely monitored
over the next several days as tropical systems have been known to
give our area it`s worst flooding. NHC forecast tracks have been
slowly shifting this system further east and now have it taking a
sharp right Wednesday towards Arizona and New Mexico. High
pressure along the northern Gulf Coast will continue to send
moisture north into the CWA, and expect disturbances originating
from the storm to increasingly spin north as the tight circulation
weakens over land. The first will arrive Tuesday and remain into
Wednesday bringing scattered convection. PWATs are currently well
above normal at 1.5" and will increase to near 1.8" by Wednesday
which is over 2 standard deviations above normal. This combined
with heavy rains that have fallen recently means flash flooding
will be a threat this week along with rises along the Rio Grande.
Will not issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time due to
uncertainties in the timing of Odile, but one may be needed later
if confidence increases. Given everything stated above, went more
aggressive with rain chances this forecast and increased or
introduced PoPs just about every day this week.

The tropical moisture has not only brought rain, but obviously
there has been abundant cloud cover as well and this has limited
afternoon heating and led poor model guidance the past couple of
days. This is tough to forecast because even a brief break in
cloud cover can allow for temperatures to quickly spike upward and
forecasting temperatures much lower than guidance requires high
confidence of dense overcast clouds all day. MAF did not even hit
70 degrees on Sunday but some of that was due to us still
recovering from the recent frontal passage. Today will be warmer
due to continued warm air advection from the south but have
undercut MAV guidance several degrees both today and tomorrow.
The remainder of the forecast is close to MEX guidance though the
trend was to continue to undercut slightly due to clouds/rain/
soil moisture effects on limiting heating.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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610
FXUS64 KMAF 151121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expecting tempo MVFR conditions to develop this morning at the
west Texas terminals as tropical moisture continues to feed north
from Mexico and northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. In
southeast New Mexico, expecting continued prevailing IFR conditions
this morning in low clouds and fog because mid and high clouds are
lacking. By this afternoon VFR conditions should prevail at the
terminals with KHOB and KCNM the last to improve. Some of the
guidance is indicating that thunderstorms are possible later this
afternoon and this evening across portions of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico but confidence was not high enough at this
time to include. Will continue to monitor.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
It has been amazing lately how we have gone from very dry to
having showers on the radar every day. Much of this can be
credited to Hurricane Odile currently making landfall in the Baja
of Mexico. This storm will have to be very closely monitored
over the next several days as tropical systems have been known to
give our area it`s worst flooding. NHC forecast tracks have been
slowly shifting this system further east and now have it taking a
sharp right Wednesday towards Arizona and New Mexico. High
pressure along the northern Gulf Coast will continue to send
moisture north into the CWA, and expect disturbances originating
from the storm to increasingly spin north as the tight circulation
weakens over land. The first will arrive Tuesday and remain into
Wednesday bringing scattered convection. PWATs are currently well
above normal at 1.5" and will increase to near 1.8" by Wednesday
which is over 2 standard deviations above normal. This combined
with heavy rains that have fallen recently means flash flooding
will be a threat this week along with rises along the Rio Grande.
Will not issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time due to
uncertainties in the timing of Odile, but one may be needed later
if confidence increases. Given everything stated above, went more
aggressive with rain chances this forecast and increased or
introduced PoPs just about every day this week.

The tropical moisture has not only brought rain, but obviously
there has been abundant cloud cover as well and this has limited
afternoon heating and led poor model guidance the past couple of
days. This is tough to forecast because even a brief break in
cloud cover can allow for temperatures to quickly spike upward and
forecasting temperatures much lower than guidance requires high
confidence of dense overcast clouds all day. MAF did not even hit
70 degrees on Sunday but some of that was due to us still
recovering from the recent frontal passage. Today will be warmer
due to continued warm air advection from the south but have
undercut MAV guidance several degrees both today and tomorrow.
The remainder of the forecast is close to MEX guidance though the
trend was to continue to undercut slightly due to clouds/rain/
soil moisture effects on limiting heating.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  66  80  67  /  20  30  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              79  68  82  69  /  20  30  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                78  66  79  67  /  30  30  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  80  70  86  71  /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           80  67  83  69  /  30  20  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  60  72  60  /  30  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                   77  65  78  65  /  20  30  40  20
MARFA TX                   73  61  77  61  /  30  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  67  82  69  /  20  30  30  20
ODESSA TX                  79  68  82  68  /  20  20  30  20
WINK TX                    82  68  84  70  /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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493
FXUS64 KMAF 150907
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
407 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
It has been amazing lately how we have gone from very dry to
having showers on the radar every day. Much of this can be
credited to Hurricane Odile currently making landfall in the Baja
of Mexico. This storm will have to be very closely monitored
over the next several days as tropical systems have been known to
give our area it`s worst flooding. NHC forecast tracks have been
slowly shifting this system further east and now have it taking a
sharp right Wednesday towards Arizona and New Mexico. High
pressure along the northern Gulf Coast will continue to send
moisture north into the CWA, and expect disturbances originating
from the storm to increasingly spin north as the tight circulation
weakens over land. The first will arrive Tuesday and remain into
Wednesday bringing scattered convection. PWATs are currently well
above normal at 1.5" and will increase to near 1.8" by Wednesday
which is over 2 standard deviations above normal. This combined
with heavy rains that have fallen recently means flash flooding
will be a threat this week along with rises along the Rio Grande.
Will not issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time due to
uncertainties in the timing of Odile, but one may be needed later
if confidence increases. Given everything stated above, went more
aggressive with rain chances this forecast and increased or
introduced PoPs just about every day this week.

The tropical moisture has not only brought rain, but obviously
there has been abundant cloud cover as well and this has limited
afternoon heating and led poor model guidance the past couple of
days. This is tough to forecast because even a brief break in
cloud cover can allow for temperatures to quickly spike upward and
forecasting temperatures much lower than guidance requires high
confidence of dense overcast clouds all day. MAF did not even hit
70 degrees on Sunday but some of that was due to us still
recovering from the recent frontal passage. Today will be warmer
due to continued warm air advection from the south but have
undercut MAV guidance several degrees both today and tomorrow.
The remainder of the forecast is close to MEX guidance though the
trend was to continue to undercut slightly due to clouds/rain/
soil moisture effects on limiting heating.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  66  80  67  /  20  30  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              79  68  82  69  /  20  30  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                78  66  79  67  /  30  30  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  80  70  86  71  /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           80  67  83  69  /  30  20  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  60  72  60  /  30  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                   77  65  78  65  /  20  30  40  20
MARFA TX                   73  61  77  61  /  30  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  67  82  69  /  20  30  30  20
ODESSA TX                  79  68  82  68  /  20  20  30  20
WINK TX                    82  68  84  70  /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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970
FXUS64 KMAF 150503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread IFR conditions are expected by 08z through much of Monday
morning as tropical moisture continues to feed north from Mexico and
northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions should improve
to MVFR by early Monday afternoon and become VFR by late afternoon.
A few showers and or thunderstorms look possible through the period
but confidence was not high enough at this time to include at any
of the terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR are hanging tough over southeast New Mexico, and will leave
them there.  Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions to prevail through
this evening.  Think all TAF sites will have IFR ceilings develop in
the 15/06Z to 15/09Z time frame, along with MVFR visibilities in
drizzle and fog.  Ceilings and visibilities should improve at all
TAF sites by 15/15-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The initial precip shield is exiting the area as shrtwv trof lifts
nwd as a secondary area of -SHRA tracks ne across the Lower Trans
Pecos/srn PB. Overnight a few -SHRA mainly acros the far w and patchy
fog will be possible, but not too thick with the clouds holding in.
Monday the mid level ridge will develop farther n so it will be a
down day wrt precip, however across the far w where the ridge
will be weaker there is some indication of a weak shear axis and
a slight chance/chance PoPs needed there. NAM12 seems too
optimistic with precip within ridge axis across the PB. Still
cloudy Monday across most all areas, but soundings show cloud
higher and will reflect a slow warming trend. A shrtwv trof moving
thru the central Plains will push a front into the Panhandle
Monday PM which is set to arrive in the PB 10Z- 12Z Tue. No
surprise best PoPs will be along and n of the front Tue AM.
Depending on amount of post frontal precip the front will have a
chance to push into areas just s of I-20 and thus precip chance
may be a little higher there in the PM. It will still be cloudy
Tue and with the front it will still be cool, just below normal.
Current forecast handles this general idea well, but will try to
tighten PoPs some on the srn extent. A shrtwv trof within a well
defined mid level theta-e ridge (possibly kicked out from Odile)
will move in from the w late Tue night/Wed AM providing enuf lift
in the moist atmosphere to result in continuation of at least
slight chance/chance PoPs. NAM12 reflects rain cooled air and
temps of 75-80 for areas n of I-20. Said shrtwv trof/shear axis
will have chance to meander in weak flow across the area Thur. For
now best precip chance will be s and w where deeper moisture has
better chance to hold. Fri-Sun the pattern has alot of change and
room for error wrt potential of deepening trof the w and a cold
front driven by strong nw mid level flow across central and nrn
high plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  82  64  78  /  10  20  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              66  80  68  82  /  10  10  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                62  82  66  80  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  66  84  71  89  /  20  20  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  85  66  79  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  75  59  73  /  20  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   59  80  63  78  /  20  30  40  40
MARFA TX                   56  77  59  76  /  20  30  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  84  66  80  /  10  10  30  40
ODESSA TX                  63  83  66  80  /  10  10  30  40
WINK TX                    63  87  68  83  /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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618
FXUS64 KMAF 142318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR are hanging tough over southeast New Mexico, and will leave
them there.  Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions to prevail through
this evening.  Think all TAF sites will have IFR ceilings develop in
the 15/06Z to 15/09Z time frame, along with MVFR visibilities in
drizzle and fog.  Ceilings and visibilities should improve at all
TAF sites by 15/15-17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The initial precip shield is exiting the area as shrtwv trof lifts
nwd as a secondary area of -SHRA tracks ne across the Lower Trans
Pecos/srn PB. Overnight a few -SHRA mainly acros the far w and patchy
fog will be possible, but not too thick with the clouds holding in.
Monday the mid level ridge will develop farther n so it will be a
down day wrt precip, however across the far w where the ridge
will be weaker there is some indication of a weak shear axis and
a slight chance/chance PoPs needed there. NAM12 seems too
optimistic with precip within ridge axis across the PB. Still
cloudy Monday across most all areas, but soundings show cloud
higher and will reflect a slow warming trend. A shrtwv trof moving
thru the central Plains will push a front into the Panhandle
Monday PM which is set to arrive in the PB 10Z- 12Z Tue. No
surprise best PoPs will be along and n of the front Tue AM.
Depending on amount of post frontal precip the front will have a
chance to push into areas just s of I-20 and thus precip chance
may be a little higher there in the PM. It will still be cloudy
Tue and with the front it will still be cool, just below normal.
Current forecast handles this general idea well, but will try to
tighten PoPs some on the srn extent. A shrtwv trof within a well
defined mid level theta-e ridge (possibly kicked out from Odile)
will move in from the w late Tue night/Wed AM providing enuf lift
in the moist atmosphere to result in continuation of at least
slight chance/chance PoPs. NAM12 reflects rain cooled air and
temps of 75-80 for areas n of I-20. Said shrtwv trof/shear axis
will have chance to meander in weak flow across the area Thur. For
now best precip chance will be s and w where deeper moisture has
better chance to hold. Fri-Sun the pattern has alot of change and
room for error wrt potential of deepening trof the w and a cold
front driven by strong nw mid level flow across central and nrn
high plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  82  64  78  /  10  20  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              66  80  68  82  /  10  10  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                62  82  66  80  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  66  84  71  89  /  20  20  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  85  66  79  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  75  59  73  /  20  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   59  80  63  78  /  20  30  40  40
MARFA TX                   56  77  59  76  /  20  30  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  84  66  80  /  10  10  30  40
ODESSA TX                  63  83  66  80  /  10  10  30  40
WINK TX                    63  87  68  83  /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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813
FXUS64 KMAF 141914
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
214 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The initial precip shield is exiting the area as shrtwv trof lifts
nwd as a secondary area of -SHRA tracks ne across the Lower Trans
Pecos/srn PB. Overnight a few -SHRA mainly acros the far w and patchy
fog will be possible, but not too thick with the clouds holding in.
Monday the mid level ridge will develop farther n so it will be a
down day wrt precip, however across the far w where the ridge
will be weaker there is some indication of a weak shear axis and
a slight chance/chance PoPs needed there. NAM12 seems too
optimistic with precip within ridge axis across the PB. Still
cloudy Monday across most all areas, but soundings show cloud
higher and will reflect a slow warming trend. A shrtwv trof moving
thru the central Plains will push a front into the Panhandle
Monday PM which is set to arrive in the PB 10Z- 12Z Tue. No
surprise best PoPs will be along and n of the front Tue AM.
Depending on amount of post frontal precip the front will have a
chance to push into areas just s of I-20 and thus precip chance
may be a little higher there in the PM. It will still be cloudy
Tue and with the front it will still be cool, just below normal.
Current forecast handles this general idea well, but will try to
tighten PoPs some on the srn extent. A shrtwv trof within a well
defined mid level theta-e ridge (possibly kicked out from Odile)
will move in from the w late Tue night/Wed AM providing enuf lift
in the moist atmosphere to result in continuation of at least
slight chance/chance PoPs. NAM12 reflects rain cooled air and
temps of 75-80 for areas n of I-20. Said shrtwv trof/shear axis
will have chance to meander in weak flow across the area Thur. For
now best precip chance will be s and w where deeper moisture has
better chance to hold. Fri-Sun the pattern has alot of change and
room for error wrt potential of deepening trof the w and a cold
front driven by strong nw mid level flow across central and nrn
high plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  82  64  78  /  10  20  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              66  80  68  82  /  10  10  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                62  82  66  80  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  66  84  71  89  /  20  20  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  85  66  79  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  75  59  73  /  20  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   59  80  63  78  /  20  30  40  40
MARFA TX                   56  77  59  76  /  20  30  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  84  66  80  /  10  10  30  40
ODESSA TX                  63  83  66  80  /  10  10  30  40
WINK TX                    63  87  68  83  /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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303
FXUS64 KMAF 141725
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals early this afternoon and again early Monday
morning. Currently have MVFR/IFR cigs at all sites except HOB where
LIFR cigs persist. Conditions have slowly been improving over the
last hour so have all terminals returning to VFR by 14/19-20Z.
Light showers generally affecting FST and MAF this morning but is
not expected to last too much longer. Could see SHRA/TSRA develop
across western portions of the region later this afternoon but
confidence was too low to include in the TAF for now. Will
continue to monitor trends for any changes and amend when needed.
Expecting IFR cigs/vsby to develop once again early Monday morning
but only included TEMPO at HOB, MAF and INK attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

UPDATE...
Based on current radar trends, adjusted higher PoPs eastward into
the lower Trans Pecos and western Permian Basin through 18Z today.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks to be on track and no
other changes were made. Areas of fog will continue across
portions of southeast NM, Permian Basin and low Trans Pecos through
the morning. Visibilities could drop to near 1/4-1/2 mile at times.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
There is an abundance of tropical moisture over Mexico and high
pressure over the northern Gulf Coast continues funneling it over
west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Radar is currently showing
light showers over the Big Bend moving north and will increase in
coverage later today, especially along and west of the Pecos
River. This moisture will remain at least through Tuesday
providing decent rain chances for much of the area, with a weak
cold front dropping into the Permian Basin Tuesday providing extra
lift.

In the meantime, surface high pressure centered right along I-20
will move east allowing for a return flow and gradually warming
temperatures over the next several days. Low clouds that kept
Saturday so cool will begin to break up this afternoon allowing
for greater afternoon heating and highs to increase closer to
normal.

Models show an upper ridge amplifying over the western U.S.
reducing rain chances by mid week. Do not have mention of rain
late in the week in this forecast but there may be enough residual
moisture that isolated convection could develop especially in the
higher terrain. All models are showing an upper trough moving
across the northern states by Friday but are very inconsistent
with exact timing and strength of this feature. The GFS has a
deeper trough and plenty of rain while the other models are weaker
and drier. Have kept the extended dry for now, would like to see a
few more runs before putting even slight chance PoPs so far out in
the forecast.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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853
FXUS64 KMAF 141411
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
911 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.UPDATE...
Based on current radar trends, adjusted higher PoPs eastward into
the lower Trans Pecos and western Permian Basin through 18Z today.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks to be on track and no
other changes were made. Areas of fog will continue across
portions of southeast NM, Permian Basin and low Trans Pecos through
the morning. Visibilities could drop to near 1/4-1/2 mile at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR to IFR conditions expected this morning and early
afternoon as an upper level disturbance produces tempo periods of
light rain and or fog. By later this afternoon through tonight,
VFR conditions will become common as this disturbance lifts away
from the terminals.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
There is an abundance of tropical moisture over Mexico and high
pressure over the northern Gulf Coast continues funneling it over
west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Radar is currently showing
light showers over the Big Bend moving north and will increase in
coverage later today, especially along and west of the Pecos
River. This moisture will remain at least through Tuesday
providing decent rain chances for much of the area, with a weak
cold front dropping into the Permian Basin Tuesday providing extra
lift.

In the meantime, surface high pressure centered right along I-20
will move east allowing for a return flow and gradually warming
temperatures over the next several days. Low clouds that kept
Saturday so cool will begin to break up this afternoon allowing
for greater afternoon heating and highs to increase closer to
normal.

Models show an upper ridge amplifying over the western U.S.
reducing rain chances by mid week. Do not have mention of rain
late in the week in this forecast but there may be enough residual
moisture that isolated convection could develop especially in the
higher terrain. All models are showing an upper trough moving
across the northern states by Friday but are very inconsistent
with exact timing and strength of this feature. The GFS has a
deeper trough and plenty of rain while the other models are weaker
and drier. Have kept the extended dry for now, would like to see a
few more runs before putting even slight chance PoPs so far out in
the forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  63  83  65  /  30  10  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              78  65  85  67  /  20  10  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                73  62  84  66  /  30  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  75  67  87  71  /  30  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  64  85  67  /  30  10  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  56  77  60  /  30  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   72  60  82  63  /  30  20  30  40
MARFA TX                   68  57  78  60  /  40  20  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    77  64  84  67  /  30  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  76  64  84  67  /  30  10  30  30
WINK TX                    76  64  85  68  /  30  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/99

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596
FXUS64 KMAF 141105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
605 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR to IFR conditions expected this morning and early
afternoon as an upper level disturbance produces tempo periods of
light rain and or fog. By later this afternoon through tonight,
VFR conditions will become common as this disturbance lifs away
from the terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
There is an abundance of tropical moisture over Mexico and high
pressure over the northern Gulf Coast continues funneling it over
west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Radar is currently showing
light showers over the Big Bend moving north and will increase in
coverage later today, especially along and west of the Pecos
River. This moisture will remain at least through Tuesday
providing decent rain chances for much of the area, with a weak
cold front dropping into the Permian Basin Tuesday providing extra
lift.

In the meantime, surface high pressure centered right along I-20
will move east allowing for a return flow and gradually warming
temperatures over the next several days. Low clouds that kept
Saturday so cool will begin to break up this afternoon allowing
for greater afternoon heating and highs to increase closer to
normal.

Models show an upper ridge amplifying over the western U.S.
reducing rain chances by mid week. Do not have mention of rain
late in the week in this forecast but there may be enough residual
moisture that isolated convection could develop especially in the
higher terrain. All models are showing an upper trough moving
across the northern states by Friday but are very inconsistent
with exact timing and strength of this feature. The GFS has a
deeper trough and plenty of rain while the other models are weaker
and drier. Have kept the extended dry for now, would like to see a
few more runs before putting even slight chance PoPs so far out in
the forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  63  83  65  /  30  10  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              78  65  85  67  /  20  10  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                73  62  84  66  /  30  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  75  67  87  71  /  30  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  64  85  67  /  30  10  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  56  77  60  /  30  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   72  60  82  63  /  30  20  30  40
MARFA TX                   68  57  78  60  /  40  20  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    77  64  84  67  /  20  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  76  64  84  67  /  20  10  30  30
WINK TX                    76  64  85  68  /  30  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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068
FXUS64 KMAF 140907
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
407 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
There is an abundance of tropical moisture over Mexico and high
pressure over the northern Gulf Coast continues funneling it over
west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Radar is currently showing
light showers over the Big Bend moving north and will increase in
coverage later today, especially along and west of the Pecos
River. This moisture will remain at least through Tuesday
providing decent rain chances for much of the area, with a weak
cold front dropping into the Permian Basin Tuesday providing extra
lift.

In the meantime, surface high pressure centered right along I-20
will move east allowing for a return flow and gradually warming
temperatures over the next several days. Low clouds that kept
Saturday so cool will begin to break up this afternoon allowing
for greater afternoon heating and highs to increase closer to
normal.

Models show an upper ridge amplifying over the western U.S.
reducing rain chances by mid week. Do not have mention of rain
late in the week in this forecast but there may be enough residual
moisture that isolated convection could develop especially in the
higher terrain. All models are showing an upper trough moving
across the northern states by Friday but are very inconsistent
with exact timing and strength of this feature. The GFS has a
deeper trough and plenty of rain while the other models are weaker
and drier. Have kept the extended dry for now, would like to see a
few more runs before putting even slight chance PoPs so far out in
the forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  63  83  65  /  30  10  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              78  65  85  67  /  20  10  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                73  62  84  66  /  30  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  75  67  87  71  /  30  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  64  85  67  /  30  10  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  56  77  60  /  30  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   72  60  82  63  /  30  20  30  40
MARFA TX                   68  57  78  60  /  40  20  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    77  64  84  67  /  20  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  76  64  84  67  /  20  10  30  30
WINK TX                    76  64  85  68  /  30  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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736
FXUS64 KMAF 140518
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1218 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR ceilings expected overnight through Sunday morning at
most terminals. Have a tempo group for MVFR and or IFR conditions
near and or after 12z Sunday for light rain and fog due to an
upper level disturbance moving northward from Mexico. By Sunday
afternoon expecting VFR ceilings to prevail with tempo MVFR
ceilings in light rain at most terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are breaking up at many of the TAF sites early this
evening.  Think most, if not all, TAF sites could lift to VFR for a
good part of the evening.  However, expect the low deck to redevelop
around and after 14/06Z, then lower to IFR after 14/09Z.  Light rain
may become more widespread late tonight, but for now will leave VFR
visibility at all TAF sites.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The general pattern of a mid level ridge axis to the n (SE mid level
flow) remains favorable for deeper moisture to hold in place and
minor shrtwv trof/s to track across the area from se-s to nw-n into
Monday. In the short-term low level WAA around 85h will maintain
weak lift resulting -SHRA this PM and areas of fog tonight. Models
are in good agreement with shrtwv trof tracking from Lower Trans
Pecos tonight and into the PB Sunday PM resulting -SHRA. Will opt
to increase PoPs into the low end chance category across the Lower
Trans Pecos/PB, which in turn will keep temps a little cooler than
currently forecast Sunday. By Monday the mid level flow starts to
transition into what will eventually be NW flow, but on Monday
there will be a minor shrtwv trof in the weak wly mid level flow.
As such slight chance PoPs are still warranted. 85h temps will
have warmed back to around the L20C degree range and surface temps
will climb back into L80s, especially outside of -SHRA. A weak
cold front will try to move into the PB/SE NM Tue AM with some
evidence of shrtwv trof/s within the mid level flow. The best
chance for precip will be along/n of front Tue across nrn CWFA. This
is already accounted for in forecast and no sig change is needed,
but will cool temps a little across the n due to the front. NW mid
level flow will advect drier mid level air swd Wed, but low level
mstr holds. For now isold/slight chance PoPs across s-sw areas
will suffice. Mid level ridging looks for prominent Thursday-
Saturday so warmer/drier. Will continue to watch ECMWF which has a
deepening trof Friday/Saturday which would change current
forecast.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  72  61  83  /  20  30  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  76  64  84  /  20  30  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                53  78  61  85  /  20  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  62  77  69  87  /  40  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  77  63  85  /  40  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  72  55  79  /  20  10  10  30
HOBBS NM                   54  73  58  81  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   50  72  54  79  /  30  20  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  74  63  85  /  20  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  54  74  63  85  /  30  30  10  10
WINK TX                    55  76  64  89  /  30  20  10  10

&&



.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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398
FXUS64 KMAF 132339
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
639 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are breaking up at many of the TAF sites early this
evening.  Think most, if not all, TAF sites could lift to VFR for a
good part of the evening.  However, expect the low deck to redevelop
around and after 14/06Z, then lower to IFR after 14/09Z.  Light rain
may become more widespread late tonight, but for now will leave VFR
visibility at all TAF sites.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The general pattern of a mid level ridge axis to the n (SE mid level
flow) remains favorable for deeper moisture to hold in place and
minor shrtwv trof/s to track across the area from se-s to nw-n into
Monday. In the short-term low level WAA around 85h will maintain
weak lift resulting -SHRA this PM and areas of fog tonight. Models
are in good agreement with shrtwv trof tracking from Lower Trans
Pecos tonight and into the PB Sunday PM resulting -SHRA. Will opt
to increase PoPs into the low end chance category across the Lower
Trans Pecos/PB, which in turn will keep temps a little cooler than
currently forecast Sunday. By Monday the mid level flow starts to
transition into what will eventually be NW flow, but on Monday
there will be a minor shrtwv trof in the weak wly mid level flow.
As such slight chance PoPs are still warranted. 85h temps will
have warmed back to around the L20C degree range and surface temps
will climb back into L80s, especially outside of -SHRA. A weak
cold front will try to move into the PB/SE NM Tue AM with some
evidence of shrtwv trof/s within the mid level flow. The best
chance for precip will be along/n of front Tue across nrn CWFA. This
is already accounted for in forecast and no sig change is needed,
but will cool temps a little across the n due to the front. NW mid
level flow will advect drier mid level air swd Wed, but low level
mstr holds. For now isold/slight chance PoPs across s-sw areas
will suffice. Mid level ridging looks for prominent Thursday-
Saturday so warmer/drier. Will continue to watch ECMWF which has a
deepening trof Friday/Saturday which would change current
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  72  61  83  /  20  30  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  76  64  84  /  20  30  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                53  78  61  85  /  20  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  62  77  69  87  /  40  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  77  63  85  /  40  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  72  55  79  /  20  10  10  30
HOBBS NM                   54  73  58  81  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   50  72  54  79  /  30  20  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  74  63  85  /  20  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  54  74  63  85  /  30  30  10  10
WINK TX                    55  76  64  89  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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812
FXUS64 KMAF 131859
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
159 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The general pattern of a mid level ridge axis to the n (SE mid level
flow) remains favorable for deeper moisture to hold in place and
minor shrtwv trof/s to track across the area from se-s to nw-n into
Monday. In the short-term low level WAA around 85h will maintain
weak lift resulting -SHRA this PM and areas of fog tonight. Models
are in good agreement with shrtwv trof tracking from Lower Trans
Pecos tonight and into the PB Sunday PM resulting -SHRA. Will opt
to increase PoPs into the low end chance category across the Lower
Trans Pecos/PB, which in turn will keep temps a little cooler than
currently forecast Sunday. By Monday the mid level flow starts to
transition into what will eventually be NW flow, but on Monday
there will be a minor shrtwv trof in the weak wly mid level flow.
As such slight chance PoPs are still warranted. 85h temps will
have warmed back to around the L20C degree range and surface temps
will climb back into L80s, especially outside of -SHRA. A weak
cold front will try to move into the PB/SE NM Tue AM with some
evidence of shrtwv trof/s within the mid level flow. The best
chance for precip will be along/n of front Tue across nrn CWFA. This
is already accounted for in forecast and no sig change is needed,
but will cool temps a little across the n due to the front. NW mid
level flow will advect drier mid level air swd Wed, but low level
mstr holds. For now isold/slight chance PoPs across s-sw areas
will suffice. Mid level ridging looks for prominent Thursday-
Saturday so warmer/drier. Will continue to watch ECMWF which has a
deepening trof Friday/Saturday which would change current
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  72  61  83  /  20  30  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  76  64  84  /  20  30  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                53  78  61  85  /  20  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  62  77  69  87  /  40  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  77  63  85  /  40  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  72  55  79  /  20  10  10  30
HOBBS NM                   54  73  58  81  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   50  72  54  79  /  30  20  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  74  63  85  /  20  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  54  74  63  85  /  30  30  10  10
WINK TX                    55  76  64  89  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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086
FXUS64 KMAF 131733
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals through much of this TAF cycle. Currently have
MVFR (with some patchy IFR) cigs across the board early this
afternoon and this is expected to continue through tonight and into
Sunday morning. Conditions expected to deteriorate later
tonight/early Sunday for at least HOB, MAF and FST. For now, will
only mention IFR returning to these locations and later shifts will
need to evaluate potential at the other terminals. Persistent low
cloud deck looks to hang around through at least 14/18Z. Otherwise,
current NE winds will veer to the E/SE by this evening with speeds
aob 10kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/

UPDATE...
Sent a quick update to lower high temperatures for this afternoon
and also to remove wording of expired High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Pass from the zones. Temperatures have made little to no
progress in warming so far this morning under the persistent cloud
deck. Expecting clouds to stick around all day and keep
temperatures below previously forecasted highs for today. Not
really sure most places will even make it out of the 50s but
remained on the conservative side for now and only brought temps
down a few degrees, generally into the low to mid 60s areawide.
Otherwise...winds at Guadalupe Pass have diminished below high
wind criteria and the High Wind Warning was allowed to expire. The
remainder of the forecast looks to be on track for today and no
other adjustments we made. The updated zones have been sent.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Rainfall had diminished significantly across southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas early this morning. The next disturbance
moving northwestward from Mexico was generating showers across
portions of the Rio Grande Valley and was approaching the Big
Bend and the lower Trans Pecos region. Since the airmass has
stabilized behind a strong cold front, precipitation amounts
with this wave are not expected to be excessive this morning.
Because of the stabilizing trend, have opted to cancel the flash
flood watch this morning for southeast New Mexico and portions of
west and southwest Texas. It is expected to be a cloudy day and
high temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees below normal
behind the cold front.

Another in a series of disturbances is forecast tonight to move
northward from Mexico into extreme west Texas. Expecting a slight
chance to a chance of showers tonight, mainly south of the Pecos
River in west Texas with this feature. This wave will continue to
push northward Sunday across west Texas resulting in at least a
slight chance of showers across a good portion of the forecast
area. The post frontal airmass will moderate some Sunday but
temperatures are still expected to remain well below normal with
considerable cloudiness.

The flow aloft is forecast to transition to west/northwest Monday
and Tuesday. Disturbances in this flow could kick off isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms across a good portion of
the forecast area Monday. In addition this flow will drop another
cold front into the region Monday night and Tuesday, with the
chance of thunderstorms continuing. The precipitation is expected
to become more isolated on Wednesday as the front dissipates.

Went with a dry forecast with near normal temperatures per the
GFS model Thursday through next Saturday with upper ridging
dominating. Will discount the ECMWF depicting a major upper
level storm system developing across the western states and
then stalling it across the Rockies with another large closed
low along the Gulf Coast. This upper pattern does not look
reasonable.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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462
FXUS64 KMAF 131528
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1028 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.UPDATE...
Sent a quick update to lower high temperatures for this afternoon
and also to remove wording of expired High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Pass from the zones. Temperatures have made little to no
progress in warming so far this morning under the persistent cloud
deck. Expecting clouds to stick around all day and keep
temperatures below previously forecasted highs for today. Not
really sure most places will even make it out of the 50s but
remained on the conservative side for now and only brought temps
down a few degrees, generally into the low to mid 60s areawide.
Otherwise...winds at Guadalupe Pass have diminished below high
wind criteria and the High Wind Warning was allowed to expire. The
remainder of the forecast looks to be on track for today and no
other adjustments we made. The updated zones have been sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS expected the next 6 hours, with improving
conditions after 18Z perhaps getting briefly to VFR. A return of
MVFR CIGs is expected after 00Z which should persist through the
remainder of the TAF period. Light showers expected through 18Z
though no lightning so there will be minimal impact at the
terminals.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Rainfall had diminished significantly across southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas early this morning. The next disturbance
moving northwestward from Mexico was generating showers across
portions of the Rio Grande Valley and was approaching the Big
Bend and the lower Trans Pecos region. Since the airmass has
stabilized behind a strong cold front, precipitation amounts
with this wave are not expected to be excessive this morning.
Because of the stabilizing trend, have opted to cancel the flash
flood watch this morning for southeast New Mexico and portions of
west and southwest Texas. It is expected to be a cloudy day and
high temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees below normal
behind the cold front.

Another in a series of disturbances is forecast tonight to move
northward from Mexico into extreme west Texas. Expecting a slight
chance to a chance of showers tonight, mainly south of the Pecos
River in west Texas with this feature. This wave will continue to
push northward Sunday across west Texas resulting in at least a
slight chance of showers across a good portion of the forecast
area. The post frontal airmass will moderate some Sunday but
temperatures are still expected to remain well below normal with
considerable cloudiness.

The flow aloft is forecast to transition to west/northwest Monday
and Tuesday. Disturbances in this flow could kick off isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms across a good portion of
the forecast area Monday. In addition this flow will drop another
cold front into the region Monday night and Tuesday, with the
chance of thunderstorms continuing. The precipitation is expected
to become more isolated on Wednesday as the front dissipates.

Went with a dry forecast with near normal temperatures per the
GFS model Thursday through next Saturday with upper ridging
dominating. Will discount the ECMWF depicting a major upper
level storm system developing across the western states and
then stalling it across the Rockies with another large closed
low along the Gulf Coast. This upper pattern does not look
reasonable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 63  56  75  62  /  20  10  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              64  59  78  65  /  10   0  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                64  56  83  62  /  20  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  68  61  83  67  /  50  30  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  58  80  65  /  30  30  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  53  73  59  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   62  55  75  59  /  20  10  20  10
MARFA TX                   61  52  72  54  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  57  78  66  /  20  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  62  58  79  65  /  20  10  20  10
WINK TX                    64  56  81  65  /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/99

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614
FXUS64 KMAF 131131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS expected the next 6 hours, with improving
conditions after 18Z perhaps getting briefly to VFR. A return of
MVFR CIGs is expected after 00Z which should persist through the
remainder of the TAF period. Light showers expected through 18Z
though no lightning so there will be minimal impact at the
terminals.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Rainfall had diminished significantly across southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas early this morning. The next disturbance
moving northwestward from Mexico was generating showers across
portions of the Rio Grande Valley and was approaching the Big
Bend and the lower Trans Pecos region. Since the airmass has
stabilized behind a strong cold front, precipitation amounts
with this wave are not expected to be excessive this morning.
Because of the stabilizing trend, have opted to cancel the flash
flood watch this morning for southeast New Mexico and portions of
west and southwest Texas. It is expected to be a cloudy day and
high temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees below normal
behind the cold front.

Another in a series of disturbances is forecast tonight to move
northward from Mexico into extreme west Texas. Expecting a slight
chance to a chance of showers tonight, mainly south of the Pecos
River in west Texas with this feature. This wave will continue to
push northward Sunday across west Texas resulting in at least a
slight chance of showers across a good portion of the forecast
area. The post frontal airmass will moderate some Sunday but
temperatures are still expected to remain well below normal with
considerable cloudiness.

The flow aloft is forecast to transition to west/northwest Monday
and Tuesday. Disturbances in this flow could kick off isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms across a good portion of
the forecast area Monday. In addition this flow will drop another
cold front into the region Monday night and Tuesday, with the
chance of thunderstorms continuing. The precipitation is expected
to become more isolated on Wednesday as the front dissipates.

Went with a dry forecast with near normal temperatures per the
GFS model Thursday through next Saturday with upper ridging
dominating. Will discount the ECMWF depicting a major upper
level storm system developing across the western states and
then stalling it across the Rockies with another large closed
low along the Gulf Coast. This upper pattern does not look
reasonable.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10

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687
FXUS64 KMAF 130934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Rainfall had diminished significantly across southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas early this morning. The next disturbance
moving northwestward from Mexico was generating showers across
portions of the Rio Grande Valley and was approaching the Big
Bend and the lower Trans Pecos region. Since the airmass has
stabilized behind a strong cold front, precipitation amounts
with this wave are not expected to be excessive this morning.
Because of the stabilizing trend, have opted to cancel the flash
flood watch this morning for southeast New Mexico and portions of
west and southwest Texas. It is expected to be a cloudy day and
high temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees below normal
behind the cold front.

Another in a series of disturbances is forecast tonight to move
northward from Mexico into extreme west Texas. Expecting a slight
chance to a chance of showers tonight, mainly south of the Pecos
River in west Texas with this feature. This wave will continue to
push northward Sunday across west Texas resulting in at least a
slight chance of showers across a good portion of the forecast
area. The post frontal airmass will moderate some Sunday but
temperatures are still expected to remain well below normal with
considerable cloudiness.

The flow aloft is forecast to transition to west/northwest Monday
and Tuesday. Disturbances in this flow could kick off isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms across a good portion of
the forecast area Monday. In addition this flow will drop another
cold front into the region Monday night and Tuesday, with the
chance of thunderstorms continuing. The precipitation is expected
to become more isolated on Wednesday as the front dissipates.

Went with a dry forecast with near normal temperatures per the
GFS model Thursday through next Saturday with upper ridging
dominating. Will discount the ECMWF depicting a major upper
level storm system developing across the western states and
then stalling it across the Rockies with another large closed
low along the Gulf Coast. This upper pattern does not look
reasonable.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  56  75  62  /  20  10  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              66  59  78  65  /  10   0  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                67  56  83  62  /  20  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  71  61  83  67  /  50  30  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  58  80  65  /  30  30  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  53  73  59  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   64  55  75  59  /  20  10  20  10
MARFA TX                   64  52  72  54  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    65  57  78  66  /  20  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  65  58  79  65  /  20  10  20  10
WINK TX                    70  56  81  65  /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/12

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195
FXUS64 KMAF 130526
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS to continue through tonight even as -RA
diminishes across the area. There will be some improvement
13/12Z-14/00Z but conditions should still remain below VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

UPDATE...
Updated products for expiration of part of Flash Flood Warning.

DISCUSSION...
Most of the rain has dissipated across the eastern CWA so allowed some
Permian Basin counties to fall off the watch at 01z.  The Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect the rest of the night from Jeff Davis
county northward across SE NM and the Western Permian Basin.  Moderate
to heavy rain currently continues across portions of the Upper
Trans Pecos.  Additional heavy rain is possible tonight across the
west.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Flooding/Flash flooding event continues with heaviest rain having
fallen across SE NM/Andrews Co.. Rich moisture (PWs around 1.75"),
cold front, and shrtwv trof to w within weak steering flow, and
within a mid level theta-e ridge are all supporting anomalous
precip amounts. It looks like precip will slowly wane into the
evening as more stable post-frontal conditions move in as low
level winds turn ne verses a more moist se wind. Opted to make
some changes to the flash flood watch. The far eastern 1/3 of the
watch will now expire at 01Z while the remainder will go thru 12Z
Sat.

Precip chances will continue to decrease Sat as mid level weakness
fills and as mid level ridging will be more prominent with
drier/more stable surface conditions. Clouds and residual moisture
combined with surface ridging will make for another unseasonably
cool day Sat. After the windy conditions of today there will be
much less wind Sat. Light precip is possible across the w and s
due mainly to warm air advection with se 85h winds. Focus then
turns to the upper low that has moved inland s of Brownsville as
it and assocd shrtwv trof/s are kicked out from it and as theta-e
ridge moves in. As such there will be an increase in PoPs again
starting Sunday across the Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB, only chance
PoPs look appropriate as GFS/ECMWF are farther e with shrtwv trof.
Temps will trend back up, but probably still below normal. Monday
there are some indications that mid level moisture tap will be
available for the Big Bend region as Tropical Storm Odile moves
near Baja along with minor shrtwv trof/s in sly flow. There`s
little confidence now on our part though so we won`t make a bigger
commitment just yet. There is uncertainty with cold front too on
Monday with ECMWF/Canadian much farther s, but it`s at least worth
slght chc/chc PoPs. Broad mid level ridging seems to be the
consensus Tue/Wed with moisture sort of trapped within ridge and
low order PoPs with diurnal heating cycle are appropriate. Ridge
builds further Thur and moisture slowly decreases and will reflect
this trend. Even out at Friday of next week there is good agreement
that a trof will approach and that the mid level ridge is pushed s
with low levels warming per drier wly flow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10

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195
FXUS64 KMAF 130526
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS to continue through tonight even as -RA
diminishes across the area. There will be some improvement
13/12Z-14/00Z but conditions should still remain below VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

UPDATE...
Updated products for expiration of part of Flash Flood Warning.

DISCUSSION...
Most of the rain has dissipated across the eastern CWA so allowed some
Permian Basin counties to fall off the watch at 01z.  The Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect the rest of the night from Jeff Davis
county northward across SE NM and the Western Permian Basin.  Moderate
to heavy rain currently continues across portions of the Upper
Trans Pecos.  Additional heavy rain is possible tonight across the
west.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Flooding/Flash flooding event continues with heaviest rain having
fallen across SE NM/Andrews Co.. Rich moisture (PWs around 1.75"),
cold front, and shrtwv trof to w within weak steering flow, and
within a mid level theta-e ridge are all supporting anomalous
precip amounts. It looks like precip will slowly wane into the
evening as more stable post-frontal conditions move in as low
level winds turn ne verses a more moist se wind. Opted to make
some changes to the flash flood watch. The far eastern 1/3 of the
watch will now expire at 01Z while the remainder will go thru 12Z
Sat.

Precip chances will continue to decrease Sat as mid level weakness
fills and as mid level ridging will be more prominent with
drier/more stable surface conditions. Clouds and residual moisture
combined with surface ridging will make for another unseasonably
cool day Sat. After the windy conditions of today there will be
much less wind Sat. Light precip is possible across the w and s
due mainly to warm air advection with se 85h winds. Focus then
turns to the upper low that has moved inland s of Brownsville as
it and assocd shrtwv trof/s are kicked out from it and as theta-e
ridge moves in. As such there will be an increase in PoPs again
starting Sunday across the Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB, only chance
PoPs look appropriate as GFS/ECMWF are farther e with shrtwv trof.
Temps will trend back up, but probably still below normal. Monday
there are some indications that mid level moisture tap will be
available for the Big Bend region as Tropical Storm Odile moves
near Baja along with minor shrtwv trof/s in sly flow. There`s
little confidence now on our part though so we won`t make a bigger
commitment just yet. There is uncertainty with cold front too on
Monday with ECMWF/Canadian much farther s, but it`s at least worth
slght chc/chc PoPs. Broad mid level ridging seems to be the
consensus Tue/Wed with moisture sort of trapped within ridge and
low order PoPs with diurnal heating cycle are appropriate. Ridge
builds further Thur and moisture slowly decreases and will reflect
this trend. Even out at Friday of next week there is good agreement
that a trof will approach and that the mid level ridge is pushed s
with low levels warming per drier wly flow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10

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634
FXUS64 KMAF 130148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
848 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated products for expiration of part of Flash Flood Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the rain has dissipated across the eastern CWA so allowed some
Permian Basin counties to fall off the watch at 01z.  The Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect the rest of the night from Jeff Davis
county northward across SE NM and the Western Permian Basin.  Moderate
to heavy rain currently continues across portions of the Upper
Trans Pecos.  Additional heavy rain is possible tonight across the
west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of rain and rain showers will continue across the area through
the overnight period and diminish in coverage Saturday morning.  Low
visibilities will likely accompany the areas of rain.  Low ceilings
are expected to remain until 18z Saturday before beginning to lift
although some areas may see low clouds all day tomorrow.  The winds
and wind gusts will begin to diminish over the next few hours behind
the front; otherwise, winds will likely remain out of the east to
northeast through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Flooding/Flash flooding event continues with heaviest rain having
fallen across SE NM/Andrews Co.. Rich moisture (PWs around 1.75"),
cold front, and shrtwv trof to w within weak steering flow, and
within a mid level theta-e ridge are all supporting anomalous
precip amounts. It looks like precip will slowly wane into the
evening as more stable post-frontal conditions move in as low
level winds turn ne verses a more moist se wind. Opted to make
some changes to the flash flood watch. The far eastern 1/3 of the
watch will now expire at 01Z while the remainder will go thru 12Z
Sat.

Precip chances will continue to decrease Sat as mid level weakness
fills and as mid level ridging will be more prominent with
drier/more stable surface conditions. Clouds and residual moisture
combined with surface ridging will make for another unseasonably
cool day Sat. After the windy conditions of today there will be
much less wind Sat. Light precip is possible across the w and s
due mainly to warm air advection with se 85h winds. Focus then
turns to the upper low that has moved inland s of Brownsville as
it and assocd shrtwv trof/s are kicked out from it and as theta-e
ridge moves in. As such there will be an increase in PoPs again
starting Sunday across the Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB, only chance
PoPs look appropriate as GFS/ECMWF are farther e with shrtwv trof.
Temps will trend back up, but probably still below normal. Monday
there are some indications that mid level moisture tap will be
available for the Big Bend region as Tropical Storm Odile moves
near Baja along with minor shrtwv trof/s in sly flow. There`s
little confidence now on our part though so we won`t make a bigger
commitment just yet. There is uncertainty with cold front too on
Monday with ECMWF/Canadian much farther s, but it`s at least worth
slght chc/chc PoPs. Broad mid level ridging seems to be the
consensus Tue/Wed with moisture sort of trapped within ridge and
low order PoPs with diurnal heating cycle are appropriate. Ridge
builds further Thur and moisture slowly decreases and will reflect
this trend. Even out at Friday of next week there is good agreement
that a trof will approach and that the mid level ridge is pushed s
with low levels warming per drier wly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 51  64  57  74  /  60  20   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              53  64  61  78  /  40  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  67  56  77  /  60  20   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  67  71  64  84  /  50  50  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  68  59  79  /  60  30  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          46  60  51  68  /  60  20   0  20
HOBBS NM                   50  63  56  73  /  60  20   0  10
MARFA TX                   53  64  52  74  /  70  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  65  59  78  /  50  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  52  66  58  78  /  50  20  10  10
WINK TX                    56  69  58  80  /  70  20   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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310
FXUS64 KMAF 122330
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of rain and rain showers will continue across the area through
the overnight period and diminish in coverage Saturday morning.  Low
visibilities will likely accompany the areas of rain.  Low ceilings
are expected to remain until 18z Saturday before beginning to lift
although some areas may see low clouds all day tomorrow.  The winds
and wind gusts will begin to diminish over the next few hours behind
the front; otherwise, winds will likely remain out of the east to
northeast through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Flooding/Flash flooding event continues with heaviest rain having
fallen across SE NM/Andrews Co.. Rich moisture (PWs around 1.75"),
cold front, and shrtwv trof to w within weak steering flow, and
within a mid level theta-e ridge are all supporting anomalous
precip amounts. It looks like precip will slowly wane into the
evening as more stable post-frontal conditions move in as low
level winds turn ne verses a more moist se wind. Opted to make
some changes to the flash flood watch. The far eastern 1/3 of the
watch will now expire at 01Z while the remainder will go thru 12Z
Sat.

Precip chances will continue to decrease Sat as mid level weakness
fills and as mid level ridging will be more prominent with
drier/more stable surface conditions. Clouds and residual moisture
combined with surface ridging will make for another unseasonably
cool day Sat. After the windy conditions of today there will be
much less wind Sat. Light precip is possible across the w and s
due mainly to warm air advection with se 85h winds. Focus then
turns to the upper low that has moved inland s of Brownsville as
it and assocd shrtwv trof/s are kicked out from it and as theta-e
ridge moves in. As such there will be an increase in PoPs again
starting Sunday across the Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB, only chance
PoPs look appropriate as GFS/ECMWF are farther e with shrtwv trof.
Temps will trend back up, but probably still below normal. Monday
there are some indications that mid level moisture tap will be
available for the Big Bend region as Tropical Storm Odile moves
near Baja along with minor shrtwv trof/s in sly flow. There`s
little confidence now on our part though so we won`t make a bigger
commitment just yet. There is uncertainty with cold front too on
Monday with ECMWF/Canadian much farther s, but it`s at least worth
slght chc/chc PoPs. Broad mid level ridging seems to be the
consensus Tue/Wed with moisture sort of trapped within ridge and
low order PoPs with diurnal heating cycle are appropriate. Ridge
builds further Thur and moisture slowly decreases and will reflect
this trend. Even out at Friday of next week there is good agreement
that a trof will approach and that the mid level ridge is pushed s
with low levels warming per drier wly flow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Ector...Howard...Midland...
     Pecos...Upton.


&&

$$

99

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117
FXUS64 KMAF 121930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Flooding/Flash flooding event continues with heaviest rain having
fallen across SE NM/Andrews Co.. Rich moisture (PWs around 1.75"),
cold front, and shrtwv trof to w within weak steering flow, and
within a mid level theta-e ridge are all supporting anomalous
precip amounts. It looks like precip will slowly wane into the
evening as more stable post-frontal conditions move in as low
level winds turn ne verses a more moist se wind. Opted to make
some changes to the flash flood watch. The far eastern 1/3 of the
watch will now expire at 01Z while the remainder will go thru 12Z
Sat.

Precip chances will continue to decrease Sat as mid level weakness
fills and as mid level ridging will be more prominent with
drier/more stable surface conditions. Clouds and residual moisture
combined with surface ridging will make for another unseasonably
cool day Sat. After the windy conditions of today there will be
much less wind Sat. Light precip is possible across the w and s
due mainly to warm air advection with se 85h winds. Focus then
turns to the upper low that has moved inland s of Brownsville as
it and assocd shrtwv trof/s are kicked out from it and as theta-e
ridge moves in. As such there will be an increase in PoPs again
starting Sunday across the Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB, only chance
PoPs look appropriate as GFS/ECMWF are farther e with shrtwv trof.
Temps will trend back up, but probably still below normal. Monday
there are some indications that mid level moisture tap will be
available for the Big Bend region as Tropical Storm Odile moves
near Baja along with minor shrtwv trof/s in sly flow. There`s
little confidence now on our part though so we won`t make a bigger
commitment just yet. There is uncertainty with cold front too on
Monday with ECMWF/Canadian much farther s, but it`s at least worth
slght chc/chc PoPs. Broad mid level ridging seems to be the
consensus Tue/Wed with moisture sort of trapped within ridge and
low order PoPs with diurnal heating cycle are appropriate. Ridge
builds further Thur and moisture slowly decreases and will reflect
this trend. Even out at Friday of next week there is good agreement
that a trof will approach and that the mid level ridge is pushed s
with low levels warming per drier wly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 51  64  57  74  /  60  20   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              53  64  61  78  /  50  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  67  56  77  /  60  20   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  67  71  64  84  /  60  50  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  68  59  79  /  60  30  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          46  60  51  68  /  60  20   0  20
HOBBS NM                   51  63  56  73  /  60  20   0  10
MARFA TX                   53  64  52  74  /  70  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  65  59  78  /  50  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  52  66  58  78  /  50  20  10  10
WINK TX                    56  69  58  80  /  70  20   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Ector...Howard...Midland...
     Pecos...Upton.


&&

$$

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325
FXUS64 KMAF 121814 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
114 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12/1800Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A messy and complicated forecast! In simple terms, expect at the
best IFR conditions at all area terminals through 13/18Z. A cold
front extends along I-20 at press time and this front will
translate southward during the afternoon and evening. A tight
pressure gradient behind this front will result in gusty north to
northwest winds, with northeast winds most pronounced through
Guadalupe Pass. GA interests are urged to keep abreast of changes
and be aware of low-level turbulence INVOF Guadalupe Pass this
afternoon and evening. Winds will lie down late this evening, but
IFR conditions will prevail.

Moist warm air advection/moist isentropic upglide (at least 1 1/2
S.D. above the mean for the middle of September) will mean
occasional rain/rain showers through at least mid evening. Weak
shortwave troughs embedded within this wet subtropical fetch may
cool the column aloft just enough to support a tall & skinny CAPE
profile. Should we get some acceleration in the -10C/-20C layer
there may be enough inductive ice-ice charging and separation of
charge to gin up a few lightning flashes. We expect a gradual
decrease in precipitation from north to south Saturday.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

UPDATE...

Please see a forecast update below.

DISCUSSION...

Just a matter of time before the southward-plunging cold front
intersects what looks to me to be something akin to a warm front
more or less along of I-20.  QPF seems reasonable and have changed
accordingly, with the highest QPF over the northern Basin to the
western Low Rolling Plains. Threat of heavy rainfall remains and
we will continue to watch and issue warnings or statements as the
situation dictates.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR, and some IFR, ceilings have formed over the area and are
affecting most TAF sites this morning.  TSRA will be possible and
have included in all TAF sites this morning.  A strong cold front
will move south through area TAF sites in the 12/15Z to 12/19Z time
frame with strong, gusty northerly winds in it`s wake.  Expect MVFR
ceilings and visibilities to occur behind the front due to light to
moderate rain and fog.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The potential for flash flooding will continue today and tonight
across much of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Trans Pecos and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor. Warm advection above a weakening surface
front across the central Permian Basin will combine with upper
level disturbances and a secondary cold front to produce numerous
showers and thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the
northern and central Permian Basin today. Weak steering flow
aloft and precipitable water in excess of 1.5 inches will enhance
the flash flood potential. The flash flood threat will extend
further south into the southern Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and
Davis Mountains this afternoon and tonight as the stronger
secondary cold front pushes into the very moist air mass
in those areas. Temperatures this afternoon will actually be
falling as the secondary cold front moves through.

More stratiform rain is expected tonight across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico behind the secondary front with warm advection
and upper level divergence continuing. Although rainfall intensity
is expected to be lower tonight due to increased stability,
saturated grounds from rainfall during the day today will will
leave areas in the watch area susceptible to additional flooding.

Below to much below normal temperatures are expected Saturday
through next Monday as cool surface high pressure builds into the
region with widespread cloudiness. Precipitation chances will
remain in the forecast across portions of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico as moisture feeds northward from Mexico and
the eastern Pacific due to tropical activity. A more aggressive
northwestward push of tropical moisture is possible and will need
to be watched for possible upgrade and expansion of precipitation
chances these periods.

Beyond Monday another cold front and upper level trough will keep
the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast across
most areas next Tuesday and Wednesday with near to below normal
temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

70

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587
FXUS64 KMAF 121628 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.UPDATE...

Please see a forecast update below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Just a matter of time before the southward-plunging cold front
intersects what looks to me to be something akin to a warm front
more or less along of I-20.  QPF seems reasonable and have changed
accordingly, with the highest QPF over the northern Basin to the
western Low Rolling Plains. Threat of heavy rainfall remains and
we will continue to watch and issue warnings or statements as the
situation dictates.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR, and some IFR, ceilings have formed over the area and are
affecting most TAF sites this morning.  TSRA will be possible and
have included in all TAF sites this morning.  A strong cold front
will move south through area TAF sites in the 12/15Z to 12/19Z time
frame with strong, gusty northerly winds in it`s wake.  Expect MVFR
ceilings and visibilities to occur behind the front due to light to
moderate rain and fog.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The potential for flash flooding will continue today and tonight
across much of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Trans Pecos and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor. Warm advection above a weakening surface
front across the central Permian Basin will combine with upper
level disturbances and a secondary cold front to produce numerous
showers and thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the
northern and central Permian Basin today. Weak steering flow
aloft and precipitable water in excess of 1.5 inches will enhance
the flash flood potential. The flash flood threat will extend
further south into the southern Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and
Davis Mountains this afternoon and tonight as the stronger
secondary cold front pushes into the very moist air mass
in those areas. Temperatures this afternoon will actually be
falling as the secondary cold front moves through.

More stratiform rain is expected tonight across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico behind the secondary front with warm advection
and upper level divergence continuing. Although rainfall intensity
is expected to be lower tonight due to increased stability,
saturated grounds from rainfall during the day today will will
leave areas in the watch area susceptible to additional flooding.

Below to much below normal temperatures are expected Saturday
through next Monday as cool surface high pressure builds into the
region with widespread cloudiness. Precipitation chances will
remain in the forecast across portions of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico as moisture feeds northward from Mexico and
the eastern Pacific due to tropical activity. A more aggressive
northwestward push of tropical moisture is possible and will need
to be watched for possible upgrade and expansion of precipitation
chances these periods.

Beyond Monday another cold front and upper level trough will keep
the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast across
most areas next Tuesday and Wednesday with near to below normal
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  51  65  55  /  90  60  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  55  65  60  /  80  50  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                71  54  68  54  / 100  60  30   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  62  72  61  /  20  60  50  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           80  55  69  59  /  50  60  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  49  61  53  / 100  60  30  10
HOBBS NM                   67  50  64  54  / 100  60  20  10
MARFA TX                   77  54  65  52  /  50  70  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  53  66  58  /  80  50  20  10
ODESSA TX                  70  52  67  57  /  80  60  20  10
WINK TX                    76  54  70  56  /  80  70  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

70/49

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685
FXUS64 KMAF 121126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR, and some IFR, ceilings have formed over the area and are
affecting most TAF sites this morning.  TSRA will be possible and
have included in all TAF sites this morning.  A strong cold front
will move south through area TAF sites in the 12/15Z to 12/19Z time
frame with strong, gusty northerly winds in it`s wake.  Expect MVFR
ceilings and visibilities to occur behind the front due to light to
moderate rain and fog.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The potential for flash flooding will continue today and tonight
across much of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Trans Pecos and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor. Warm advection above a weakening surface
front across the central Permian Basin will combine with upper
level disturbances and a secondary cold front to produce numerous
showers and thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the
northern and central Permian Basin today. Weak steering flow
aloft and precipitable water in excess of 1.5 inches will enhance
the flash flood potential. The flash flood threat will extend
further south into the southern Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and
Davis Mountains this afternoon and tonight as the stronger
secondary cold front pushes into the very moist air mass
in those areas. Temperatures this afternoon will actually be
falling as the secondary cold front moves through.

More stratiform rain is expected tonight across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico behind the secondary front with warm advection
and upper level divergence continuing. Although rainfall intensity
is expected to be lower tonight due to increased stability,
saturated grounds from rainfall during the day today will will
leave areas in the watch area susceptible to additional flooding.

Below to much below normal temperatures are expected Saturday
through next Monday as cool surface high pressure builds into the
region with widespread cloudiness. Precipitation chances will
remain in the forecast across portions of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico as moisture feeds northward from Mexico and
the eastern Pacific due to tropical activity. A more aggressive
northwestward push of tropical moisture is possible and will need
to be watched for possible upgrade and expansion of precipitation
chances these periods.

Beyond Monday another cold front and upper level trough will keep
the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast across
most areas next Tuesday and Wednesday with near to below normal
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  51  65  55  / 100  60  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  55  65  60  /  80  50  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                71  54  68  54  / 100  60  30   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  62  72  61  /  50  60  50  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           80  55  69  59  /  80  60  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  49  61  53  / 100  60  30  10
HOBBS NM                   67  50  64  54  / 100  60  20  10
MARFA TX                   77  54  65  52  /  70  70  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  53  66  58  / 100  50  20  10
ODESSA TX                  70  52  67  57  / 100  60  20  10
WINK TX                    76  54  70  56  / 100  70  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/12

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048
FXUS64 KMAF 120934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The potential for flash flooding will continue today and tonight
across much of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Trans Pecos and the Van Horn
Highway 54 Corridor. Warm advection above a weakening surface
front across the central Permian Basin will combine with upper
level disturbances and a secondary cold front to produce numerous
showers and thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the
northern and central Permian Basin today. Weak steering flow
aloft and precipitable water in excess of 1.5 inches will enhance
the flash flood potential. The flash flood threat will extend
further south into the southern Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and
Davis Mountains this afternoon and tonight as the stronger
secondary cold front pushes into the very moist air mass
in those areas. Temperatures this afternoon will actually be
falling as the secondary cold front moves through.

More stratiform rain is expected tonight across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico behind the secondary front with warm advection
and upper level divergence continuing. Although rainfall intensity
is expected to be lower tonight due to increased stability,
saturated grounds from rainfall during the day today will will
leave areas in the watch area susceptible to additional flooding.

Below to much below normal temperatures are expected Saturday
through next Monday as cool surface high pressure builds into the
region with widespread cloudiness. Precipitation chances will
remain in the forecast across portions of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico as moisture feeds northward from Mexico and
the eastern Pacific due to tropical activity. A more aggressive
northwestward push of tropical moisture is possible and will need
to be watched for possible upgrade and expansion of precipitation
chances these periods.

Beyond Monday another cold front and upper level trough will keep
the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast across
most areas next Tuesday and Wednesday with near to below normal
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  51  65  55  / 100  60  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  55  65  60  /  80  50  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                71  54  68  54  / 100  60  30   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  62  72  61  /  50  60  50  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           80  55  69  59  /  80  60  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  49  61  53  / 100  60  30  10
HOBBS NM                   67  50  64  54  / 100  60  20  10
MARFA TX                   77  54  65  52  /  70  70  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  53  66  58  / 100  50  20  10
ODESSA TX                  70  52  67  57  / 100  60  20  10
WINK TX                    76  54  70  56  / 100  70  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/12

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492
FXUS64 KMAF 120532
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to continue overnight
along and north of a Carlsbad to Midland to Big Spring line.
Additional storms are possible further south, so have included
TSRA at all area TAF sites overnight and through much of this
morning. VFR conditions will prevail through most of the night,
but do expect ceilings to develop and lower to MVFR in the 12/10Z
to 12/15Z time frame. A strong cold front will move rapidly south
into the area, affecting KHOB as early as 12/15Z and moving
through KFST by 12/20Z. Expect ceilings to lower to low MVFR,
along with MVFR visibility in light to moderate rain and fog. Low
ceilings will likely be present at most TAF sites more often than
not through Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
for the next 24 hours with reduced visibilities and gusty winds in
and near the storms.  Low ceilings are expected across the area by
09z and are expected to be even lower by 12z.  There will be some
improvement in ceilings Friday morning and afternoon but expect at
least MVFR conditions to prevail.  A cold front will begin moving
into the area between 18z to 21z with gusty and elevated winds out
of the northeast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014/

Much cooler temperatures have prevailed today behind a weak cold
front which has settled along the I-10 corridor. Another, stronger
cold front is on the way tomorrow with more widespread showers and
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain.

Showers and storms are beginning to develop from the Davis Mountains
east to Big Lake along yesterdays cold front. This area of storms is
expected to expand north this evening and tonight, encompassing most
of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico by morning. Heavy rain
will be possible with these storms as PWAT values increase over 1.5"
and Gulf moisture rides up and over the cooler air behind the front.
This area of rain will likely combine with more storms moving south
across E NM and the TX Panhandle tomorrow morning. Some uncertainty
remains for which locations will receive the heaviest rain, however
the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM appear to have the best shot. These
areas received several inches of rain last weekend and this looks
possible once again. Will continue the mention of locally heavy rain
in the forecast and issue a Flash Flood Watch through Saturday
morning. This watch may need to be expanded east with time, but this
is the area we are most confident about now.

A potent shortwave over Montana will send a strong cold front south
tonight, reaching our region Friday morning. Snow is being reported
behind this front as far south as Nebraska and northern Colorado.
High temperatures will be reached early in the day as readings fall
quickly behind the front. Most locations north of the I-20 corridor
will be in the 50s by afternoon with a strong northerly wind. We are
also looking at our first gap wind event of the season for Guadalupe
Pass as intense pressure rises arrive behind the front. Will issue a
High Wind Watch for GDP Friday night into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will continue to fall Friday night, bottoming out in
the upper 40s and 50s across the area Saturday morning. We will
likely only warm into the 60s and low 70s Saturday afternoon as the
clouds stick around with areas of light drizzle possible. By Sunday,
a disturbance over Mexico begins to shift north with rain again
overspreading the area from the lower Trans Pecos into the southern
Permian Basin. The extended remains more uncertain as an upper ridge
builds to our west and we transition to northwesterly flow aloft. A
couple of the models bring a front in by midweek so more rain is
possible as temps stay near normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Friday night FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday evening through late Friday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$


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594
FXUS64 KMAF 112335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
for the next 24 hours with reduced visibilities and gusty winds in
and near the storms.  Low ceilings are expected across the area by
09z and are expected to be even lower by 12z.  There will be some
improvement in ceilings Friday morning and afternoon but expect at
least MVFR conditions to prevail.  A cold front will begin moving
into the area between 18z to 21z with gusty and elevated winds out
of the northeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Much cooler temperatures have prevailed today behind a weak cold
front which has settled along the I-10 corridor. Another, stronger
cold front is on the way tomorrow with more widespread showers and
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain.

Showers and storms are beginning to develop from the Davis Mountains
east to Big Lake along yesterdays cold front. This area of storms is
expected to expand north this evening and tonight, encompassing most
of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico by morning. Heavy rain
will be possible with these storms as PWAT values increase over 1.5"
and Gulf moisture rides up and over the cooler air behind the front.
This area of rain will likely combine with more storms moving south
across E NM and the TX Panhandle tomorrow morning. Some uncertainty
remains for which locations will receive the heaviest rain, however
the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM appear to have the best shot. These
areas received several inches of rain last weekend and this looks
possible once again. Will continue the mention of locally heavy rain
in the forecast and issue a Flash Flood Watch through Saturday
morning. This watch may need to be expanded east with time, but this
is the area we are most confident about now.

A potent shortwave over Montana will send a strong cold front south
tonight, reaching our region Friday morning. Snow is being reported
behind this front as far south as Nebraska and northern Colorado.
High temperatures will be reached early in the day as readings fall
quickly behind the front. Most locations north of the I-20 corridor
will be in the 50s by afternoon with a strong northerly wind. We are
also looking at our first gap wind event of the season for Guadalupe
Pass as intense pressure rises arrive behind the front. Will issue a
High Wind Watch for GDP Friday night into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will continue to fall Friday night, bottoming out in
the upper 40s and 50s across the area Saturday morning. We will
likely only warm into the 60s and low 70s Saturday afternoon as the
clouds stick around with areas of light drizzle possible. By Sunday,
a disturbance over Mexico begins to shift north with rain again
overspreading the area from the lower Trans Pecos into the southern
Permian Basin. The extended remains more uncertain as an upper ridge
builds to our west and we transition to northwesterly flow aloft. A
couple of the models bring a front in by midweek so more rain is
possible as temps stay near normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Friday night FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday evening through late Friday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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680
FXUS64 KMAF 112019
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
319 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Much cooler temperatures have prevailed today behind a weak cold
front which has settled along the I-10 corridor. Another, stronger
cold front is on the way tomorrow with more widespread showers and
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain.

Showers and storms are beginning to develop from the Davis Mountains
east to Big Lake along yesterdays cold front. This area of storms is
expected to expand north this evening and tonight, encompassing most
of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico by morning. Heavy rain
will be possible with these storms as PWAT values increase over 1.5"
and Gulf moisture rides up and over the cooler air behind the front.
This area of rain will likely combine with more storms moving south
across E NM and the TX Panhandle tomorrow morning. Some uncertainty
remains for which locations will receive the heaviest rain, however
the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM appear to have the best shot. These
areas received several inches of rain last weekend and this looks
possible once again. Will continue the mention of locally heavy rain
in the forecast and issue a Flash Flood Watch through Saturday
morning. This watch may need to be expanded east with time, but this
is the area we are most confident about now.

A potent shortwave over Montana will send a strong cold front south
tonight, reaching our region Friday morning. Snow is being reported
behind this front as far south as Nebraska and northern Colorado.
High temperatures will be reached early in the day as readings fall
quickly behind the front. Most locations north of the I-20 corridor
will be in the 50s by afternoon with a strong northerly wind. We are
also looking at our first gap wind event of the season for Guadalupe
Pass as intense pressure rises arrive behind the front. Will issue a
High Wind Watch for GDP Friday night into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will continue to fall Friday night, bottoming out in
the upper 40s and 50s across the area Saturday morning. We will
likely only warm into the 60s and low 70s Saturday afternoon as the
clouds stick around with areas of light drizzle possible. By Sunday,
a disturbance over Mexico begins to shift north with rain again
overspreading the area from the lower Trans Pecos into the southern
Permian Basin. The extended remains more uncertain as an upper ridge
builds to our west and we transition to northwesterly flow aloft. A
couple of the models bring a front in by midweek so more rain is
possible as temps stay near normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  69  51  65  /  80  90  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              68  73  55  66  /  70  70  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                68  71  54  65  /  80  80  60  30
DRYDEN TX                  78  93  66  79  /  40  40  50  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  80  55  67  /  60  60  50  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  66  49  62  /  80  80  60  30
HOBBS NM                   65  67  50  63  /  90  90  50  20
MARFA TX                   61  77  54  67  /  50  50  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  70  53  67  /  70  70  40  20
ODESSA TX                  66  70  52  67  /  70  70  40  20
WINK TX                    69  76  54  67  /  70  80  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Friday night FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday evening through late Friday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

49/29

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481
FXUS64 KMAF 111745
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1245 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Had a preliminary front move through overnight and expect a stronger
front to arrive midday tomorrow. Rain/storm chances will be on the
increase through the afternoon and tonight. Will also have
marginal MVFR cigs at most TAF sites with conditions decreasing
overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently near the Pecos River will be the main
surface feature of concern today and tonight. Low level
convergence coupled with strong upper level divergence should
provide plenty of lift on a moist (precipitable water values in
excess of 1.5 inches) and unstable atmosphere. There will be a
chance of showers and thunderstorms today across much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico in this regime. The best chance for
heaviest rainfall this afternoon will be along and near the
interstate 10 corridor closet to the front. Locally heavy rainfall
with localized flooding will be possible especially in this
corridor this afternoon. By tonight the front will become
stationary and then begin to move northward as warm advection
increases in the lower layers. This will shift the best chance of
showers and thunderstorms northward to across the central and
northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Localized
flooding will continue to be a concern tonight with weak flow
aloft and high precipitable waters continuing. Will mention the
potential for localized flooding today and tonight in the
hazardous weather outlook. Although confidence was not quite high
enough at this time to saddle the day shift with a flash flood
watch, later shifts will need to monitor this potential for
tonight and or Friday with more significant precipitation
expected.

Chance to likely pops will continue Friday and Friday night as
another cold front plunges through the forecast area. Locally
heavy rainfall and localized flooding will remain a concern with
precipitable water values remaining above 1.5 inches areawide
with a moist ground expected from Thursday`s rainfall. Significantly
cooler temperatures are expected most areas today and Friday
behind these fronts with significant cloud cover and precipitation
expected.

Much below normal temperatures are expected Saturday through next
Monday behind these fronts as cool surface high pressure builds
into the region with widespread cloudiness. Precipitation chances
will remain in the forecast across much of west Texas and portions
of southeast New Mexico as moisture increases from Mexico and the
eastern Pacific due to tropical activity developing off Baja. A
more aggressive northwestward push of tropical moisture is possible
and will need to be watched for possible upgrade and expansion of
precipitation chances these periods.

Beyond Monday kept isolated diurnal thunderstorms mainly in the
mountains Tuesday through next Thursday in moist upslope flow.
Pops may need to be expanded into significant portions of the plains
Tuesday and or Wednesday if the ECMWF and CMC continue to depict
the the approach of another cold front.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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