Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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410
FXUS64 KMAF 120424
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1024 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to issue a Dense Fog Advisory and send out the Aviation
Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weak shortwave trough was exiting the region this evening, taking
any rain chances with it.  The sky cleared over the western half of
the forecast area in it`s wake, while low clouds continue to hold
tenaciously to the eastern third or so of the CWA.  The surface
pressure gradient over southeast New Mexico and west Texas is fairly
weak, and will stay that way overnight.  The clear skies and light
winds are allowing temperatures to drop, and as readings near
somewhat high dewpoints for this time of year, this will promote fog
development again tonight.

Latest observations, and incoming progs, are indicating the
development of fairly widespread fog, some of which is dense over
portions of Lea County.  Expect more dense fog will form along and
west of a Lamesa to Midland to Big Bend line overnight, or where the
low clouds end.  The current forecast has most of this well in hand,
but will expand the dense fog over more of the Upper Trans Pecos and
northern Permian Basin.  Will also issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
these areas, which will run from 12/06Z until 12/16Z.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds have refused to dissipate across the central and
eastern Permian Basin this evening. Meanwhile...fog has developed
over SE NM and and western portions of the Permian Basin where
skies have cleared. Fog should fill in across most terminals and
visibilities will likely lower further overnight. NAM soundings
indicate low clouds briefly clearing at KMAF and fog quickly
developing. This seems reasonable given the clearing line is on
the Midland/Ector Co line. The fog and low clouds should clear by
late morning when VFR conditions return.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2014/

An upper level ridge will build over the forecast area tonight
through Friday night and should result in generally fair weather.
The one caveat these periods is that decent low level moisture
will remain over the area and will result in extensive low clouds.
In addition light winds will combine with the moisture and
encourage areas of fog to develop tonight and Friday night. The
fog could be dense tonight in the Guadalupe mountains and the
southeast New Mexico Plains where skies will clear this evening.
Later shifts will need to monitor for a possible advisory. Due
to the low clouds and fog expected, generally went above guidance
on low temperatures through Saturday morning and toward the lower
guidance on high temperatures Friday.

The aforementioned upper ridge will move east Friday night and be
replaced by a southern stream system moving inland from the west
coast to the four corners region by Saturday evening. This upper
system is forecast to intensify as it closes off as it moves east
across the southern Rockies Sunday and translates to the southern
plains by Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday near the cold pool aloft across
northern sections of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
closer to the upper low and along the surface cold front across
the Permian Basin late Saturday night and Sunday. Much above
normal temperatures are expected Saturday with surface troughing
intensifying ahead of the upper system. The associated Pacific
front is expected to pass through the day Sunday, knocking
temperatures back to more normal values. In addition breezy to
windy conditions will likely develop Sunday as the surface
pressure gradient increases behind the surface low.

Dry with below normal temperatures are expected next Monday
through Wednesday behind a northern stream cold front and
building surface high pressure. Another southern stream system
is forecast to approach the area from the southwest later
Wednesday and next Thursday with showers possible Thursday with
near or slightly below normal temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Midland...Pecos...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/12

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