Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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053
FXUS64 KMAF 110852
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
352 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
West to southwest flow aloft will continue today and this should
strengthen the surface lee low/trough across the west Texas/eastern
New Mexico border. A weak mid level shortwave trough is forecast
by model consensus to move over the surface trough resulting in a
slight chance to a chance of thunderstorms across mainly west Texas.
Not expecting a severe weather outbreak but a few of the storms
will be strong possibly severe especially in the lower Trans Pecos
region and Big Bend given a cape forecast of near 1000 j/kg and 0
to 6 kilometer shear values in the 30 to 40 knot range. The
activity should diminish early this evening with loss of heating,
but will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms going
overnight across mainly west Texas due to height falls associated
with the approach of a potent southern stream system from Baja.

By Sunday through Monday night the Baja system will slowly approach
and track over the forecast area. This will result in an increase
chance of thunderstorms area wide. In addition precipitation
chances will be enhanced during the day Monday, especially across
southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin due to a cold
front interacting with the upper low.

The upper level storm system is forecast to weaken and exit across
north Texas Tuesday with only residual isolated showers and thunderstorms
possible across portions of southeast New Mexico and west Texas.
Behind the cold front high temperatures will drop to below normal
values Monday and Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday a surface trough/dry line is forecast to become
established again in westerly flow aloft by Wednesday across the
central and or eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures should warm
again to above normal values with the formation of the surface
trough/dry line. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out along
the dry line Wednesday afternoon but confidence in placement of
the dry line is low this far out, so left the forecast dry for
now.

By next Wednesday night a cold front is forecast to plunge south
through the forecast area as an upper level storm system moves
across the central plains. Confidence was high enough to mention a
slight chance of thunderstorms across the eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos with this front.

Cooler (below normal) temperatures and dry weather is expected
behind the cold front next Thursday and Friday with near normal
temperatures returning next Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  59  78  53  /  20  10  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              78  62  80  56  /  40  20  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                85  53  78  53  /  10  10  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  81  65  82  60  /  40  20  50  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  61  78  53  /  20  20  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  48  66  47  /  10  10  30  40
HOBBS NM                   79  58  77  51  /  10  10  40  50
MARFA TX                   77  51  67  46  /  20  20  40  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    79  61  81  55  /  30  20  50  40
ODESSA TX                  79  61  78  55  /  20  20  50  40
WINK TX                    84  58  82  53  /  20  10  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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