Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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853
FXUS64 KMAF 141411
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
911 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.UPDATE...
Based on current radar trends, adjusted higher PoPs eastward into
the lower Trans Pecos and western Permian Basin through 18Z today.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks to be on track and no
other changes were made. Areas of fog will continue across
portions of southeast NM, Permian Basin and low Trans Pecos through
the morning. Visibilities could drop to near 1/4-1/2 mile at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR to IFR conditions expected this morning and early
afternoon as an upper level disturbance produces tempo periods of
light rain and or fog. By later this afternoon through tonight,
VFR conditions will become common as this disturbance lifts away
from the terminals.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
There is an abundance of tropical moisture over Mexico and high
pressure over the northern Gulf Coast continues funneling it over
west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Radar is currently showing
light showers over the Big Bend moving north and will increase in
coverage later today, especially along and west of the Pecos
River. This moisture will remain at least through Tuesday
providing decent rain chances for much of the area, with a weak
cold front dropping into the Permian Basin Tuesday providing extra
lift.

In the meantime, surface high pressure centered right along I-20
will move east allowing for a return flow and gradually warming
temperatures over the next several days. Low clouds that kept
Saturday so cool will begin to break up this afternoon allowing
for greater afternoon heating and highs to increase closer to
normal.

Models show an upper ridge amplifying over the western U.S.
reducing rain chances by mid week. Do not have mention of rain
late in the week in this forecast but there may be enough residual
moisture that isolated convection could develop especially in the
higher terrain. All models are showing an upper trough moving
across the northern states by Friday but are very inconsistent
with exact timing and strength of this feature. The GFS has a
deeper trough and plenty of rain while the other models are weaker
and drier. Have kept the extended dry for now, would like to see a
few more runs before putting even slight chance PoPs so far out in
the forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  63  83  65  /  30  10  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              78  65  85  67  /  20  10  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                73  62  84  66  /  30  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  75  67  87  71  /  30  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  64  85  67  /  30  10  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  56  77  60  /  30  20  30  30
HOBBS NM                   72  60  82  63  /  30  20  30  40
MARFA TX                   68  57  78  60  /  40  20  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    77  64  84  67  /  30  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  76  64  84  67  /  30  10  30  30
WINK TX                    76  64  85  68  /  30  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/99

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