Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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543
FXUS64 KMAF 161025
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
425 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A complicated scenario is in store for the first period, as an upper
lvl trough which WV currently places near the Four Corners digs SE
and moves thru West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon.
Ahead of this feature, as noted in sfc analysis and on area radars,
a cold front is moving thru the region.  Fropa at KMAF was at around
0830Z...2-3 hours ahead of what models were forecasting 24 hours
ago.  As the upper trough nears the area later today, models develop
precip ahead of this feature this afternoon, w/precip type being
very dependent on CAA.  Main concerns will be the nrn Permian Basin
and Wrn Low Rolling Plains.  Forecast NAM soundings start out cold,
but w/the column saturated only in the PBL...too warm for ice to be
present.  Min temps in the saturated layer are cold enough for
FZRA...but the cold layer looks just thick enough (~750m) to favor
IP over FZRA.  As the afternoon progresses, deeper CAA arrives,
saturating the column up enough for a transition to -SN.  QPFs keep
snow accumulations under an inch, but slippery roadways and reduced
vsbys may be a concern, and will be addressed in the HWO.  Frequent
updates will be possible, as a degree or two difference in the
soundings and reality will call for a different precip type.

Otherwise, a hard freeze follows overnight, but temps begin warming
Monday as the sfc ridge slides east and return flow resumes Monday
afternoon.  This AMS is not as potent as the last, and temps should
rebound to near-normal by Thursday afternoon as NW flow aloft
transitions to zonal.  A weak front is forecast to stall out in the
nrn zones Wednesday afternoon, but looks to have a negligible effect
on temps.  A stronger front arrives Thursday night, w/the ECMWF/CMC
coming in much stronger than the GFS/DGEX.  For now, the consensus
seems to be to keep temps near normal and grids mostly dry into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  26  39  24  /  30   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              34  27  43  27  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                40  25  44  29  /  50   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  32  49  28  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  26  47  27  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  21  41  28  /  60   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   32  23  41  25  /  30   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   62  19  48  16  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  24  42  24  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  25  42  24  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    42  28  46  24  /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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