Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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386
FXUS64 KMAF 260920
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis this morning shows a weak surface low in
southeastern New Mexico extending south into the Davis Mountains.
Westerly mid and upper level flow will mix to the surface with
afternoon heating and push this trough into the central Permian
Basin with isolated thunderstorms developing to the east of this
feature beginning in the late afternoon and reaching maximum
coverage during the early evening. There will be quite a bit of
potential instability today but shear will be marginal for severe
storms.

Wednesday the focus for rain will shift back to the west as
another low digs into the southwestern U.S. pulling moisture back
against the mountains. Convection will develop with the help of
the terrain Wednesday evening then move east and expand in
coverage Thursday with the support of an upper level disturbance
moving northeast out of Mexico. Westerly upper flow Friday will
decrease PoPs but an approaching cold front Saturday will increase
rain chances once again. It is currently expected to move into the
Permian Basin Saturday night, which is when the PoPs are greatest,
but convective outflow could push this front through sooner and we
may end up seeing most of the rain Saturday...then decreasing
overnight. Clouds and rain will keep temps at or below normal the
next week ensuring that May will finish below normal in average
temperature for the first time in 5 years.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  66  90  68  /   0  10  10  30
BIG SPRING TX              88  68  89  69  /  10  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                88  59  93  65  /   0   0  10  40
DRYDEN TX                  92  71  91  71  /  10  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  67  93  70  /  10  10  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  62  87  62  /   0   0  10  30
HOBBS NM                   85  62  89  66  /   0   0  10  40
MARFA TX                   85  50  88  61  /   0   0  10  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  68  90  69  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  89  68  90  69  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                    91  66  95  70  /   0   0  10  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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