Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 222312

612 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be ongoing
convection near western terminals this evening. Generally have
strong southeast winds at all sites except CNM, where southwest
winds prevail. Currently have scattered TSRA extending from the
Davis Mountains north into southeast New Mexico. This activity is
only affecting PEQ and CNM at the moment but could see HOB and INK
reporting TSRA shortly. FST and MAF will remain dry. Will continue
to monitor radar trends and amend if/when needed. Isolated
thunderstorm chances will continue overnight and Saturday for the
same areas but will hold off on any mention in the TAF beyond this
evening. VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday however any
thunderstorm that affects a terminal may produce heavy rainfall
that will briefly reduce vsbys.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

An upper level high centered over the Mississippi River valley has
built slightly further west today than yesterday. This is evident
in visible satellite imagery showing only cumulus developing in
the higher elevations and in southeast New Mexico, and even that
is ragged cu. The past couple of days have seen convection reach
the Midland/Odessa area but today it will be more limited and
generally west of the Pecos River.

The high will remain stationary through the weekend and into early
next week causing a repeat pattern of slightly above normal highs
and a slight chance for storms out west. Things begin to change by
the middle of next week as a deep upper level trough moves across
the western CONUS and into the Central Plains. All models are in
good agreement with this feature as well as an accompanying
surface front on Wednesday night. Convection will begin to spread
east and southeast ahead of the front Wednesday then will continue
Thursday and perhaps even into Friday before upper ridging once
again starts to dry us out.







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