Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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880
FXUS64 KMAF 270448
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals underneath a ridge. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the mountains this afternoon and this
evening but should remain west of the terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms this evening will likely stay west of all
terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

Summer mid/upper level circulation continues to be dominated by
the presence of the subtropical ridge. Today the ridge is to the
north and easterly mid/upper level flow is evident on 12Z MAF
sounding and water vapor imagery. Water vapor indicates that the
mid level theta-e ridge axis is well to the w with even drier
mid/upper level air moving w into the Trans Pecos region. The
subtropical ridge will develop farther e into Tue resulting in
modest height falls. So Monday will be probably be the last of the
hottest days experienced lately and Monday`s temps will only be a
degree or 2 cooler than today. Through thickness/layer temp
considerations (hypsometric) a decreasing trend is evident,
especially as seen time series of said thickness/layer temps into
next Fri. It will still be hot, just not as hot. NAEFS/GEFS
ensemble depiction of cooling is seen in the decrease of 7h temps
from the 3rd +standard deviation to normal to +1. Finally, MOS
guidance depicts this as well. Even though temps cool some we
don`t expect any precip across the PB thru at least Thur, low
order slight chance/chance PoPs will be confined to the
mtns/adjacent plains. The subtropical ridge will build w-nw by
late in the week/weekend which may result in a brief up tick in
PoPs across n-nw PB then. Looking at the 6-10/8-14 day 5h height
anomalies there`s an indication of broad mid level ridge axis
slightly to the w suggesting more dry wx is likely.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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