Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 051940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT Thursday...other than some high
clouds streaming overhead from the subtropical Pacific it is a
pleasant Spring day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Temps are mainly in the 80s with dry conditions.

Potent upper low now moving into Central California will drop
southeast into the desert southwest by late Saturday aftn. The
flow aloft over the Southern Plains will become southwest with
weak perturbations moving overhead in the flow aloft. With the
development of a sfc lee side trof the low level flow will turn
to southeast advecting moisture into the CWA from the southeast.
Looking at the sfc obs near the Gulf there is not much low level
moisture upstream...probably due to the modified continental
airmass that settled over the Gulf Coast in the last couple of

It appears that a diffuse dryline will develop over the western
CWA on Friday with storms developing over the higher terrain and
moving east. As the upper low gets closer and with continued low
level southeast flow the dryline will sharpen some Friday night
and Saturday over the Permian Basin with the possibility of
convection spreading east. Stronger instability on Saturday with
MUCAPE values above 750 J and decent 0-6 km bulk shear some storms
could be strong or even severe. The biggest threat looks to be
strong winds and hail. The dryline retreats a bit Saturday night
before moving east on Sunday...with the threat of convection in
the eastern zones on Sunday.

The upper low will lift northeast Sunday into next week into the
Central Plains. This will bring westerly flow into the Southern
Plains resulting in dry and warm to hot temps. Ridging along the
West Coast will continue the WNW flow to the Southern Plains with
mainly dry weather and slightly above normal temps thru the middle
of next week.



.FIRE WEATHER...Dry air will remain over the region through
tonight and result in poor recovery areawide. Low level winds will
begin to back to the southeast over the Permian Basin Friday,
bring a little low level moisture to these areas, and keep RH/s
generally above 15 percent Friday afternoon along and east of a SE
NM to Big Bend line, despite above normal high temperatures.
Farther west, RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent, with
southeasterly winds increasing in many of these areas around
07/00Z. A few locations could have critical fire weather
conditions, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM
Plains, but the duration is in question and a Fire Weather Watch
will not be issued. Another concern will be the possibility of
scattered thunderstorms developing in and near the Marfa Plateau,
and Davis and Guadalupe Mountains Friday afternoon. Since the air
near the surface will be pretty dry, any storms could produce dry
lightning strikes and strong gusty winds. Low level moisture will
begin to increase over these areas into Friday evening, so there
will be a chance of a wetting rain over the higher terrain Friday
night. Recovery Friday night will be poor west to fair east,
unless wetting rains occur over the west.

On Saturday, a dryline will form over the Permian Basin and could
result in scattered thunderstorms over the Permian Basin Saturday
afternoon.  In the drier air west of the dryline, above normal
temperatures will aid RH/s dropping to 5 to 15 percent.  Critical
fire weather conditions could occur Saturday afternoon/evening over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains, but this will depend on whether
these areas receive rain on Friday night. Stay tuned.


Big Spring                     88  57  87  61 /   0   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       90  55  91  59 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                         92  62  91  65 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  90  64  92  64 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 83  58  86  56 /   0   0  20  30
Hobbs                          87  54  87  58 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          83  46  86  52 /   0   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           89  60  87  61 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         89  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           93  60  95  63 /   0   0  10  30


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