Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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035
FXUS64 KMAF 261748
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 26/18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS SOUTH ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU AND EAST ACROSS THE GLASS
MOUNTAINS. IN PART DUE TO WEAK SHEAR ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE THAT SHEAR, ADDITIONAL TSRA
DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE PRIMARILY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN
PARTICULAR COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS INVOF TSRA, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MVFR TO
IFR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST. WE`VE ADDED TSRA TO ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNON AND EVENING...IN PART DUE TO A COUPLE OF WEAK
BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF TSRA ACTIVITY, WINDS WILL
TREND EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA NEARING HOB ATTM, BUT MOSTLY EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
MAY RESULT IN BKN LAYER AROUND 050. OTHERWISE WINDS OUTSIDE OF
SHRA THIS MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, LESS THAN
10KTS. PM TSRA WILL BE AROUND THE AREA BUT THE BETTER CHANCE MAY
BTWN 03Z-12Z ACROSS SE NM AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS
THERE LATE TONIGHT/SAT AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

UPDATE...

SOME STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST 2 HOURS IN THE VAN
HORN AREA AS WELL AS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. ALSO, THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE
UPDATED POPS AND WX FOR THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE TODAY, WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEPENING
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
WEST OF THE REGION, YIELDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE SUMMER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS, ESPECIALLY AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL, A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S
HIGHS, TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU, WHERE
COMPARATIVELY COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

WHILE THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL REPEAT OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS /CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT PLAINS/, A TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND SERVE TO EXPAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AREA-WIDE, AS WELL AS DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. DUE
TO THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE REGION AS OF LATE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES WOULD LEND TO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITIONING
OF THE FRONT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS EACH
DAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.  THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF SHEAR EXPECTED, THUS THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
MARGINAL, THOUGH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND HEAVILY UPON THE TIMING OF ANY WAVES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS THE LOCATION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BEYOND TUESDAY, A DRYING TREND LOOKS TO GET UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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