Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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587
FXUS64 KMAF 221738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Thunderstorm activity to
the east of terminals this morning will continue to move east away
from aviation sites. Variable winds across the board this morning
will become more established from the west this afternoon and
increase significantly by Sunday morning. Only have sustained
speeds forecasted at 15kt with gusts up to 25kt, however speeds
look to increase further just beyond this forecast cycle.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
northwest Mexico will be the main feature of interest today.
This system will approach the Big Bend by this evening allowing
an anomalous late season low level moisture surge northwestward
from the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive
upper divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing cold front. The best chance of thunderstorms (good
chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin this
morning. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for
the longest period of time ahead of the upper system. Some of
these storms could be on the strong side in the eastern Permian
Basin, producing hail and gusty winds given elevated capes of
over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air aloft
and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will decrease
this afternoon as the system pushes east toward west central
Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday.
Northwest 700 millibar flow of 50 knots is forecast in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains on Sunday and combined with a
tight surface pressure gradient could produce strong winds.
A high wind watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains
and the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet Sunday through mid
Sunday evening.

Below normal temperatures may return to the forecast area
next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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