Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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309
FXUS64 KMAF 101127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds will continue this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Quasi-zonal flow across the area will lead to another warmer than
normal and dry day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Guidance undercut yesterday`s temperatures and, with westerly
downsloping winds around 10-20 MPH today, have opted to go slightly
higher than guidance with temperatures today. Currently forecasting
95 for Midland, and if this verifies it will tie the current record
high (set in 1948). Expect a pronounced diurnal range over the next
few days with morning low temperatures 30-40 degrees cooler than
afternoon high temperatures. A weak cold front will attempt to
push into the area tonight, but will wash out and provide little
more than a wind shift to the northern Permian Basin.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue through the
weekend, with winds being the determining factor in whether or not
critical conditions will be achieved. Please see the fire weather
discussion below for more information. Clouds will increase from the
west Friday and Saturday ahead of an approaching disturbance on
Sunday. As this disturbance passes the area, a strong cold front
will push across the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday.
00z models remained consistent with a dry frontal passage across the
area. The Canadian and ECMWF attempt to bring rain showers across
the northern Permian Basin Monday afternoon courtesy a secondary
trough, but have opted to discount this solution as moisture
across the area appears minimal. Despite the lack of rain,
Sunday/Monday`s front will bring strong winds (with pressure
rises behind the front on the order of of 14-18 mb/6 hr). Monday`s
temperatures will drop below seasonal normals behind the front
into the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the area. The remainder
of the week looks mostly dry with near normal temperatures before
another system approaches the area in the Thursday/Friday
timeframe.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air is in place today across the entire area with minimum
afternoon humidities dropping into the single digits in most
locations. The limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions
today is wind speeds as a surface pressure gradient of 2 mb will not
generate sustained winds of 20 mph. Even the Guadalupe Mountains
will struggle to become windy this afternoon, therefore the Fire
Weather Watch has been cancelled and we will issue a Fire Danger
Statement instead. Mountain passes may funnel the wind to create
isolated areas of 20 mph winds or greater and this will likely
happen at GDP, but again this effect will be too localized to issue
a warning for today.

Expecting similar conditions tomorrow with winds being the limiting
factor. On Saturday a lee trough will deepen increasing winds in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos in west Texas.
Critical fire weather conditions are possible in these areas though
it is too far out to issue a watch so the fire danger threat will be
handled in the HWO product for now. Critical conditions will be
possible again on Sunday before a cold front moves through Sunday
night increasing minimum RHs above 20 percent.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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