Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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674
FXUS64 KMAF 241830
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 24/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through 25/18Z.
Beginning to see signs of convective development over the Davis
Mountains south across the Marfa Plateau and much of Brewster
County. Isolated TSRA is possible just about anywhere today, but
confidence is sufficiently low to preclude mention of TSRA at any
one terminal. Shortly after sunset, isolated thunderstorm
development will wane, leaving the area with a bit of convective
debris aloft and light and variable winds at the surface.

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Latest mesoanalysis suggests an area of convergence and fronto-
genesis along I-10 roughly centered around KFST. In addition,
surface theta analyses indicate something resembling a baroclinic
zone extending from the Davis Mountains east-northeastward to
north central Texas. We do see a weak core west of SH 118 south
of Kent and MOGR CU over much of southwest TX extending northeast
into the southern Permian Basin.

There`s plenty of moisture around with surface Tds in the lower
60s, with localized higher amounts where it rained yesterday.
Precipitable water values are running around 1.5. There`s a bit of
instability to be had, but mid level lapse rates are anemic and
wind shear is pretty much nonexistent. As a result, low-level cold
pools will play a critical role in secondary CI and upscale
growth. The last series of HRRR runs are optimistic about
scattered TSRA across the southern Permian Basin while the NSSL
WRF and TTU WRF are less optimistic. Right now I`m leaning more
toward the less optimistic side, but wouldn`t be surprised to see
CI somewhere in the southern Basin by 21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening but probabilities are too small to mention at this time.
Winds will remain generally light and will shift from the
northeast to the east and southeast during the day today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast.  Area radars show convection
has diminished across most of the FA, w/only a few -SHRA in NW Eddy
County.  MRMS estimates indicate that the Wrn Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin fared best w/regards to rainfall last night,
w/widespread estimates over 1", and totals as high as 5-6".  Latest
sfc analysis shows the old cold front down in the Big Bend Area/Lwr
Trans Pecos, but a secondary surge of cold air is currently moving
thru Southeast New Mexico, the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and Permian
Basin.  W/these two fronts in the area, as well as residual
boundaries from yesterday`s activity, at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms will persist throughout the day across most of West
Texas and SE NM.  Buffer soundings suggest temps this afternoon will
be blo normal north, abv normal south, although cloud cover,
convection, and antecedent soil moisture will all combine to
frustrate things.

Otherwise, WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast, but this is still forecast to build west as the Great Lakes
trough amplifies during the week.  Thicknesses will increase through
Friday, w/a corresponding ramp-up of temperatures to the upper 90s
most locations for the weekend.  Long-range models park the ridge
over the SW CONUS/Nrn Mexico by the end of the extended, w/chances
of rain after today slim-to-none.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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