Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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895
FXUS64 KMAF 202304
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
604 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Expect VFR conditions through the evening before low clouds return
overnight to at least KMAF and KHOB. Have not included low cigs at
other terminals, but will need to be monitored for amendments. Low
clouds will mix out by late morning and VFR conditions will
return.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows West Texas and Southeast New Mexico sitting under
weak upper-lvl ridging between two systems, one over the upper MS
Valley and the other over northern CA.  At the lwr lvls, stratus
that has plagued the area over the past few days has burned off
w/the exit of yesterday`s trough, w/afternoon temps approaching
normal once again.  Vis sat imagery shows a cu field developing
along the western mtns, but struggling to develop convection attm.
Can`t rule out an isolated cell or two over the Davis Mtns before
the afternoon is out, but this looks to end w/loss of daytime
heating.

Upper ridge is forecast to amplify a bit over the next few days as
the west coast trough moves inland, w/a weak dryline developing over
mid-CWA Saturday afternoon.  Models hint at developing a line of
convection along this feature Saturday afternoon, w/steep mid-lvl
LRs in excess of 7C/km east of the dryline.  A 40+kt LLJ is forecast
after sunset, to sustain convection into the overnight hours.
Sunday, leeside troughing intensifies, and westerly flow will
sharpen up the dryline even more than Saturday, and push it east
somewhat.  Mucapes east of this feature ramp up to over 3000J/kg
during the afternoon over the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, w/mid-lvl LRs
of almost 8C/km, and deep lyr shear of 35-40kts.  Thus, a svr threat
will be in play both days east of the dryline...mainly large hail,
but a wind threat, as well.  We`ll emphasize this in the HWO. The
dryline is then forecast to maintain form over the eastern zones
into the extended, w/slight chances of convection in SW flow aloft
to the east each day.  Next good chance for convection in the
extended may be next Thursday, when one of the more agressive models
brings a trough into the area.  However, other models disagree attm.

For temps, things have finally returned to normal, w/AOA temps
expected into the extended under either the ridge or SW flow
aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  87  68  90 /  10  10  30  30
Carlsbad                       56  92  57  90 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         65  89  72  90 /  10  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  64  93  68  92 /  10  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 58  84  57  83 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          59  88  60  88 /  10  20  20  10
Marfa                          54  86  52  85 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           64  88  67  91 /  10  20  30  20
Odessa                         64  89  66  93 /  10  20  30  20
Wink                           64  92  64  94 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29

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