Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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034
FXUS64 KMAF 190347
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
947 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2014

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light SW-W sfc flow
will back to the south after sunset Wednesday. A few high clouds
will be possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The slow warming trend this week looks to continue for the next
couple of days. Northwest flow aloft will persist over the region
through Wednesday, though as the high amplitude ridge over the
western CONUS gradually weakens under the influence of several
shortwaves, a transition to more zonal flow will occur. Under the
zonal flow, Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast,
with high temperatures topping out in the mid 60s to low 70s, near
to slight above normal area-wide.

A shallow shortwave is progged to skirt just north of the area
Thursday night, with little fanfare for our region, as much of the
energy will remain focused over the northern Panhandle. Friday night
and Saturday, however, look to be a different story. On Friday, a
trough will dig south through the Rockies as it moves toward our
area, and ahead of this feature, the region will see a return to
southerly flow, and thus, increased moisture return.  Modest 500mb
height falls will accompany the trough as it moves through the area
on Friday night and Saturday, and given model soundings continue to
indicate elevated instability (generally above 700mb) as well as
fairly steep lapse rates, convection will be possible.  However, the
extent of shower/thunderstorm activity will be highly dependent on
how much moisture return can be achieved prior to the trough
swinging through, and currently it looks like the best moisture
return will be to the east, with greatest potential for
thunderstorms for our area over the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern
Permian Basin, and Western Low Rolling Plains. Another limiting
factor would be a lack of diurnal destabilization, as the trough
currently looks to move through the area late Friday night and
during the first half of the day Saturday. If the trough slows down,
more widespread activity would be possible.

Beyond Saturday, the forecast will be dry, and mainly focused on
temperatures. A front accompanying the aforementioned trough will
help drop temperatures a few degrees on Saturday and Sunday, tough
most locations will still be in the 60s, with upper 50s possible
over higher terrain. Sunday night, a second, stronger cold front
will drop through the region, with below normal high temperatures in
the 50s expected both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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