Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 101723
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon, tonight and
Wednesday. Southwest to west winds will be a little gusty this
afternoon, but should decrease after 11/00Z.  Winds will become
westerly again Wednesday afternoon, increase to 10 to 15kt at most
area terminals, and be gusty during the afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/

Warm days are here again.  WV imagery shows generally zonal flow
across the CONUS, w/an upper trough approaching the MS Valley.  At
the sfc, high winds are currently registering at the Bowl in the
Guadalupes, and forecast H7 wind fields suggest this will continue
for the next 48 hours or so.  Latest NAM mtn wave signature forecast
and H7 height gradient fields suggest this could translate to the
lower elevations Wednesday afternoon for a few hours, and we`ll keep
the high wind warning in place for the Guadalupes.

For temps, guidance has been a bit on the cold side, likely
underestimating downslope warming in SW flow.  Current guidance
still seems too cool, as thicknesses are forecast to remain more or
less steady the next few days, so everything points toward warmer,
near-record temps for at least the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, an upper trough just of the PacNW coast is forecast to
begin strengthening and moving down the west coast late in the week,
transitioning zonal flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to
SW.  Return flow will begin bringing Gulf moisture up from the SE
Thursday night, when models try to backdoor a cold front into the NE
zones.  This will increase chances of rain across the NE zones
Friday, w/chances increasing E-W into the weekend as the trough
crosses Baja, approaches the region, and large-scale ascent takes .
over.  Long-range models are in some disagreement as to the track
of the trough as it passes thru the area, but best chances of rain
for the FA look to be Saturday night.  Models even show enough
instability in place for an isolated thunderstorm or two.   Friday
night, forecast soundings hint at the possibility of -FZRA in the
north, as moisture will be too shallow for -SN.  However, the column
saturates enough for -SN over the northern zones Sat/Sun nights.  Of
course, this will also be dependent on the track of the trough, so
this could change as the event nears.  Temps should stay at or below
normal Friday thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     79  47  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  46  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  47  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  83  51  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  46  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          75  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  36  77  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           79  46  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         79  46  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           80  41  81  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

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