Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 270436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1036 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016


See 06z aviation discussion below.



Ceilings will continue to decrease across the area through the
night. Visibilities will decrease across some if not most areas
with HOB already reporting fog. Ceilings and visibilities should
improve to VFR around 18z tomorrow. Winds will be elevated out of
the south overnight with winds becoming stronger out of the
southwest with gusts tomorrow afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 753 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016/


Update to add patchy fog to the overnight forecast.


Southerly flow prevails over the forecast area this evening as the
region resides on the western fringe of an expansive surface ridge.
Low clouds have hung tough from portions of the southeastern New
Mexico Plains over the Permian Basin.  Meanwhile, copious amounts of
mid and high cloud were spreading eastward, but mainly over the
northern third of the forecast area.

Expect southeasterly low level winds to increase somewhat overnight
due to height/surface falls ahead of an approaching ua trough from
the west.  The mentioned low cloud cover may erode a bit through the
evening, and the higher clouds may not cover much more of the
forecast area than they already are until late tonight.  Since low
level moisture will increase, especially along and east of the Pecos
River, think some radiational cooling may occur under partly cloudy
skies, and fog may form anyways considering overnight low level
moisture advection.  Will send an update to add fog to the forecast
for tonight and Sunday morning.  Some locations may see dense fog,
but will wait and see whether this comes about, especially since more
cloud cover than expected, or 15kt+ surface winds, could prevent
heavier fog from forming.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CST Saturday...Windy weather is in
store for the Guadalupe Mtns Sunday thru Monday.

A strong Pacific Upper Level system moving onshore will progress
across the Mountains into the Plains Sunday and Monday. The
system will pass just to the north of the CWA. Large scale lift
associated with this system could bring a few showers/storms to
the extreme eastern portions of the CWA. However...the main effect
will be the strong winds in the Mountains. H7 winds will increase
to 50 kt or addition there is a good mtn wave
signature. Based on this...have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a
Warning for the Guadalupe Mtns Sunday through Monday. There might
be a brief period where the winds subside a little Monday
morning...but it will be brief. To keep things simple decided to
just run the Warning thru Monday aftn. The higher elevations of
the Davis Mtns will be windy...but there was not enough confidence
at this time to add them to the warning. It is also possible that
the winds could be strong enough for an Advisory across the SE New
Mexico Plains and the Western/Central Permian Basin...mainly
Monday. Temps Sunday and Monday will be above normal.

In the wake of this Upper Trof a Pacific Cold Front will drop
south Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will bring cooler temps from
Tuesday thru the rest of the week...about five degrees or so below
normal. For the most part it will be dry.

A colder Upper Trof will move inland over Southern British
Columbia on Wednesday then drop south thru the Intermountain West
to the Northern Baja Peninsula by next weekend. This will bring
southwest flow aloft with shortwaves rippling northeast. Temps
will be cool/cold with a low level east to northeast flow. There
will be a chance of precipitation starting Friday and continuing
thru next weekend.



Big Spring                     56  72  47  66 /  10  10  20   0
Carlsbad                       48  69  42  64 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         54  76  51  74 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  55  77  46  66 /   0  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 48  64  37  53 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          49  67  39  58 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  70  37  56 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           55  71  45  65 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         54  70  45  62 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           53  74  43  65 /   0   0   0   0


NM...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 5 PM MST Monday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 5 PM MST Monday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.




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