Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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769
FXUS64 KMAF 241121
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings will continue spreading and impacting the area
through around 15z. Winds will gradually turn towards the
southwest later this morning and become elevated and gusty before
weakening this evening. High clouds are expected to continue to
move across the area today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dryline has retreated into the wrn CWFA and is seen quite well on
the IR satellite imagery. it will reside in the western CWFA only
this morning and by 18Z it will e of or near a Lamesa...Midland...
Big Bend Line. A prominent low level thermal ridge will reside
just in wake of the dryline where it will be hot again. There
were several 100-102 readings and 109-111 at Rio Grande Village
yesterday and expect that will again be the case today. MOS looks
to be have a cool bias of late and todays highs will likely be
warmer than MOS. Not sure how MOS is coming up dwpnts so high w of
the dryline either. This will generally be the trend for Wed too,
maybe even moreso since the mid level flow will probably be more
veered. Dryline will hang up across the far south as it likes to
do. CINH does show some signs of weakening across the far Lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon and storms would be severe if they
develop. Elsewhere convective initiation will be hard to come by
thru Wed PM. ATTP will opt to downplay storms this morning and Wed
AM, despite GFS` higher PoPs. Storms are more likely Thur across
the PB/Trans Pecos with the dryline farther w and mid level height
falls. A weak Pacific front late Thur night or Fri AM along with a
75-80kt 3h speed max may be sufficient for nocturnal tstms, but
dry air will encompass all of the CWFA Fri PM. A few dryline
storms may return Sat/Sun PM, but moreso on Sun when there is more
likely to be a 3h jet max to the s. Otherwise there is some
cooling from Thur onward but still repetitively hot/dry across
the wrn half of the CWFA.

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds across the area are expected to be elevated and gusty out
of the southwest with winds of at least 20 mph across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of southeast New Mexico where the
atmosphere is in an very dry and unstable state, Haines Indices of
5-6. The southwest winds will contribute to compressional warming
with high temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. Minimum RH
values this afternoon will be 15 percent or below along and to the
west of a line from around Lamesa to Midland to Fort Stockton.
Many places along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos will
experience minimum RH values in the single digits. Due to these
conditions, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon
and early this evening for the Guadalupe Mountains and the
southeast New Mexico plains. Critical fire weather will remain
possible for Wednesday with similar conditions expected as on
Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has therefore been issued for the
same area for Wednesday afternoon through early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  70  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                      100  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  73  94  71 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  60  97  61 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          88  56  90  57 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                          100  63 100  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/

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