Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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844
FXUS64 KMAF 080155
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
855 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to lower PoPs over most of the area, and cancel the rest of
the Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

More stable conditions are settling south across the Permian Basin
this evening in the wake of a cold front and earlier convection.
Think there will be little redevelopment in these areas as the
atmosphere stays fairly stable overnight.  Will keep showers in the
forecast through the night, but since the threat of thunderstorms
and heavy rain has decreased, will cancel the remainder of the Flash
Flood Watch over the western Low Rolling Plains and eastern Permian
Basin.

There is still some convection over the Big Bend region, and more
convection moving off the higher terrain into southeast New Mexico
where instability persists behind the front.  A few locations could
see moderate, if not very localized heavy, rainfall, but it will not
be widespread enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch.  Have updated
the forecast to lower PoPs over the forecast area, but especially
over the northeastern zones. An update will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions this evening will be short lived as MVFR ceilings
are expected to return overnight, with widespread improvement to
VFR not expected until possibly as late as 08/18Z. KHOB and KMAF
in particular have a chance for IFR conditions Wednesday morning,
thus have included TEMPOs at both of these locations. Otherwise,
northeasterly winds will gradually veer to the southeast through
the period. There could be some storms Wednesday afternoon, though
have not included mention at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

Cold front continues to sag east and south from the eastern
Permian Basin to near the Davis Mountains. Showers and thunderstorms
are continuing to develop along this boundary near the aforementioned
areas, aided by diffluent flow aloft along the southern periphery
of the stronger westerlies. Have decided to cancel the Flash Flood
Watch for much of the forecast area except the extreme eastern
Permian Basin. The areas where the watch will be cancelled will
either be too far removed from the frontal boundary or have not
already received excessive rainfall. Plan on expiring the watch in
the eastern Permian Basin by 06z Wednesday due to the expectation
that the heaviest rains associated with the boundary will have
moved east of the area.

For Wednesday through Friday a new surface lee trough is forecast
to quickly become established near the mountains. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, mainly in the
afternoon and evening along and east of the surface trough from
the mountains east to the southeast New Mexico Plains to the
western Permian Basin. Not expecting a watch box these days, but
a few storms could be strong to severe given forecast shear values
of around 20 knots with capes of 500 to 2000 j/kg. Warming 850
millibar temperatures and more sunshine will result in warmer
temperatures these days, but still below normal.

The forecast for Saturday through the middle of next week looks to
be warm and dry as a sprawling upper level ridge is forecast to
become established over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  68  89  71  92  /  20  30  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    67  93  71  94  /  30  20  20  30
DRYDEN TX                      75  94  72  95  /  40  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  91  72  92  /  30  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  87  67  85  /  30  30  40  30
HOBBS NM                       63  89  68  89  /  20  10  20  20
MARFA TX                       65  87  64  86  /  30  40  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        68  89  72  92  /  20  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      67  89  72  91  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                        69  92  73  95  /  30  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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