Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 290232 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
832 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

Updated the forecast to increase PoPs slightly tonight and
introduce fog later tonight into early Sunday morning.


Current radar shows that while the main area of rain has shifted
to the south and east of Midland, other areas of rain continue to
develop farther west. The stationary nature of the upper low near
the Four Corners region is causing this continued redevelopment
which may occur into tomorrow morning across the CWA. At that time
the upper low should finally begin to push east bringing
precipitation to an end. Therefore have increased PoPs and pushed
them back west the next 12-18 hours. We may also see areas of fog
or freezing fog developing due to the abundant moisture on the
ground and have also placed this in the forecast for tonight and
early tomorrow.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/

00Z TAF issuance
Flight conditions are only expected to get worse overnight as
ceilings lower and fog develops. Most terminals are at MVFR
currently and expect IFR/LIFR conditions to develop by 06Z. Clouds
and fog will begin to lift by early afternoon Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015/


Latest observations show temperatures have been warming ever-so-
slowly today, w/most locations right at or abv freezing. At 19Z,
only KSNK was still reporting UP at 32F, and this will probably
change over to -RA before the afternoon is out. As a result, we`ve
allowed the WSW to expire, as best chances for precip overnight
will be over the warmer SE zones. Patches of -FZRA cannot be ruled
out, but accumulations should be light. Soil temps have come down
about 10F over the past 24 hours, but are still mid-40s or above.
Icy roads have not been a problem, but re-freezing overnight may
create a slick spot or two of black ice, and elevated surfaces
will be a concern as well. We will handle this w/a SPS.

That said, temps overnight will be tricky.  As is their wont, models
are too wide on diurnalspreads, and have forecast afternoon highs
that will not be realized, and overnight lows that are warmer than
what`s occurring now.  MOS is even more unrealistic.  Most likely,
w/light winds and overcast conditions, overnight mins will likely be
only a degree or two lower than this afternoon`s highs.  Thus, we`ll
make last-minute adjustments to 1st period temps just before the
issuance of this afternoon`s package.

Otherwise, temps will remain well-blo normal Sunday under continued
overcast skies, as chancesof rain taper off to the east.  Temps come
up further on Monday, but will be mitigated by a dry, incoming Pac
front as the upper trough ejects into the upper Midwest.   On
Wednesday, models bring a trough thru the region, possibly kicking
off -SHRA over the SE, and keeping temps blo normal.  In fact, temps
stay blo normal thru the extended.  Near the end of the forecast
period, models threaten West Texas and Southeast New Mexico with a
deep, cut-off low over the SW CONUS, but this looks to pass north of
the FA attm.




BIG SPRING TX                  32  39  38  58  /  80  50  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    35  47  29  56  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                      45  49  44  65  /  70  30  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               37  48  42  59  /  70  40   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              35  52  33  52  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                       32  44  37  59  /  30  20  10   0
MARFA TX                       39  58  36  60  /  60  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        36  41  40  56  /  80  50  10   0
ODESSA TX                      35  47  40  56  /  70  40  10   0
WINK TX                        36  48  39  59  /  60  30  10   0





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