Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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786
FXUS64 KMAF 010548
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH QUIETER NIGHT TONIGHT, W/A FEW HIGH CLOUD OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS DUE TO LAST NIGHT`S MCS, AND STRATUS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATEST BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING IN A FEW
HOURS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KMAF, AND MVFR AT KINK/KFST AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, LOW-BASED CU FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A 35+KT LLJ
RESUMES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER STORMS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA,
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
AFFECTED MUCH BY THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE
MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS INDICATED BY A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED OMEGA. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LIFT MOVES SOUTHWARD, STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING THIS TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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