Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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162
FXUS64 KMAF 102319
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
519 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings will persist at KMAF, and lower to IFR later tonight.
The rest of the terminals will likely see IFR ceilings and VLIFR
visibility by late tonight.  Fog and low cloud will mix out by late
morning or early Thursday afternoon.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2014/

A weak upper level disturbance in the west to northwest flow
aloft will produce steep lapse rates tonight and could kick off an
isolated shower and or thunderstorm across much of the forecast
area. This disturbance will rapidly exit the region early Thursday
and will be replaced by an upper level ridge. This ridge should
keep the weather quiet Thursday and Friday. Decent low level
moisture however will remain over the area through Friday night
and will result in extensive low clouds. In addition light winds
will combine with the moisture and encourage areas of fog to
develop through Friday night. The clouds should help keep the fog
from becoming too dense tonight and tomorrow night. Due to the low
clouds and fog expected, went above guidance on low temperatures
through Saturday morning and toward the lower guidance on high
temperatures through Friday.

The aforementioned upper ridge will move east Friday night and be
replaced by a potent southern stream system moving inland from the
west coast to the four corners region by Saturday evening. This
upper system is forecast to intensify as it closes off as it moves
east across the southern Rockies to the western high plains
Saturday night through Monday morning. It appears that guidance is
tracking this system a little further north with each successive run
and keeping the best chance of precipitation north and east of the
forecast area. Will continue to mention a slight chance to a
chance of thunderstorms across northern and eastern sections of the
forecast area Saturday night and early Sunday as the dynamics with
the upper system interact with a dryline/Pacific cold front. Much
above normal temperatures are expected to continue Saturday with
surface troughing remaining in place ahead of the upper system.
The associated Pacific front is expected to pass through the day
Sunday, knocking temperatures back to more normal values. In
addition breezy to windy conditions will likely develop Sunday as
the surface pressure gradient increases behind the surface low.

Dry with below normal temperatures are expected next Monday
through Wednesday behind a northern stream cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  62  49  69  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              49  61  53  69  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                42  66  40  73  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  67  54  73  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           45  67  48  75  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  63  44  64  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   43  63  46  70  /  10   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   40  67  41  70  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    48  63  52  70  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  48  63  51  71  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    47  67  46  73  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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