Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

FXUS64 KMAF 201804

104 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014


Please see the 20/18Z forecast discussion below.



Mucky forecast out west where a deep moisture layer extending from
the subtropical Pacific up through far west Texas and New Mexico
is interacting with several weak upper level disturbances. All
this and some sunshine in places will mean widespread -SHRA and also
some TSRA where daytime heating helps to create more instability.
After sunset, -SHRA will persist at KCNM, KINK, KPEQ, and KFST
with lesser chances farther east. Low cloudiness may persist at
KHOB and KMAF in the morning, meaning MVFR to IFR conditions


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

See aviation discussion below.

Mainly prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through this evening with TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected this
morning through 16z. An upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico will produce the threat of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and west
Texas through tonight. Confidence was high enough to include prob
30 groups this afternoon and this evening for VFR conditions in
TSRA at KINK, KHOB and KCNM with TEMPO VFR conditions in TSRA at
KFST and KPEQ this afternoon and this evening.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.







Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:

Check us out on the internet at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.