Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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434
FXUS64 KMAF 270517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1217 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the potential for
thunderstorms at different periods throughout the TAF period.
Currently have showers near MAF and a few isolated thunderstorms
farther south of the terminal. Not expecting much more activity than
what is already out there so didn`t include mention in the TAFs.
Will continue to monitor trends and amend if needed. Thunderstorm
chances will increase during the day but similar to Sunday, not
exactly clear on when and where this activity will develop. Will
keep mention out of the TAFs for now and make adjustments later if
needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the TUTT centered just SW of KMAF, further east
than models forecast 24 hours ago.  Today, most models place the
TUTT too far east, w/some, like the GFS, already in major
disagreement w/the current position.  Corresponding QPF fields are
all over the map, as well. Although models don`t capture this well,
all tend to take the TUTT back east into the Hill Country, then
south into Mexico over the next 36-48 hours.  Meanwhile, out west,
the usual daytime heating/destabilization is taking place over the
higher terrain, w/upslope flow spawning afternoon convection.
Therefore, all areas overnight stand a good chance at getting wet.
We`ll concentrate higher POPs over the NE overnight coincident w/the
TUTT, then shift them west Monday as the TUTT moves east.  As the
TUTT heads south, this will allow the upper ridge covering the srn
CONUS to center/strengthen over the Four Corners area into the
extended.  This will allow the low-lvl theta-e ridge to remain out
west for the next couple of days, promoting convection over the
higher terrain each day. Tuesday, a shortwave will move into central
Texas, and may clip the NE zones.  After that, the ridge is forecast
to sink south a bit, and the focus for convection in the extended
will shift to the nrn zones as shortwaves move thru the top of the
ridge.

For temps, thicknesses invof the TUTT will keep things at or below
normal over the first part of the week, before things ramp up again
as the upper ridge builds NW.  However, w/the ridge staying to the
west as far as forecast, most areas should avoid the triple digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  94  73  92 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       68  94  70  95 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         71  96  76  96 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  68  95  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  86  67  88 /  30  20  10  10
Hobbs                          68  91  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          61  84  61  87 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         72  94  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           70  97  72  95 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72/

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