Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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695
FXUS64 KMAF 222259
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions at all area terminals through tonight and
Sunday.  Thunderstorms may affect the westernmost terminals this
evening, but probabilities are too low to include in the forecast.
A cold front will move south into the region Sunday morning.  KCNM
and KHOB will be affected most with gusty northerly winds before
the front slows to a halt by late Sunday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

Thunderstorms are again developing in the Davis Mountains this
afternoon. The main difference between yesterday and today will be
the lack of convective development or movement into southeastern
New Mexico or the Permian Basin. Storms will diminish later this
evening as the loss of insolation increases boundary layer
stability.

Models are still showing a weak cold front moving into northern
Lea County Sunday morning, then slowly sagging south to the I-20
corridor by the afternoon. Cooling from cold air advection will be
limited to southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian
Basin, with more modest cooling due to increased cloud coverage
farther south and east. The highest rain chances will be along the
front but weak upper level support may allow for only widely
scattered convection to develop so have left PoPs at modest levels
for this forecast.

The front will lift north and undergo frontolysis beginning Monday
as an upper level high builds back over west Texas. This will end
rain chances for most areas though cannot rule out isolated
afternoon storms in the Davis Mountains. High temperatures will
once again climb into the upper 90s most locations but should
remain below 100 except in the valleys of the Pecos River and Rio
Grande.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  96  71  94  /  10  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                    70  91  67  94  /  30  40  30  10
DRYDEN TX                      75  99  74  98  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  98  71  95  /  10  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              65  82  65  87  /  30  40  30  10
HOBBS NM                       69  89  66  90  /  20  40  30  20
MARFA TX                       62  90  60  88  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        75  97  70  95  /  10  30  30  20
ODESSA TX                      75  95  70  94  /  10  30  30  20
WINK TX                        75  99  72  98  /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/10

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