Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 181747

1247 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.


MVFR CIGS will gradually improve during the afternoon, becoming
VFR after 21Z at TAF locations. As surface high pressure slides
east of the area, surface winds will become southeast to south across
the area this afternoon. MVFR or IFR ceilings are expected to
redevelop at KMAF Saturday morning. KHOB, KFST, and KINK could
also see low clouds but to a lesser extent. Shower and
thunderstorm development will remain mostly west of TAF locations later
this afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014/

The cold front has pushed all the way to the Rio Grande this
morning aided by widespread convection across the area yesterday.
We are looking at a pretty nice day for mid July with high
temperatures 5-10 degrees below average. Low level moisture along
with easterly upslope flow should allow for convection to fire
this afternoon in the higher terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe
Mtns. The upper ridge begins to build in from the west Saturday
with warming temperatures and diminishing precip chances. Saturday
will not be all that bad yet with highs near normal, but by Sunday
into Monday the upper ridge becomes more established centering
itself over eastern NM. This will send most locations into the
triple digits with areas along the Rio Grande possibly needing a
Heat Advisory early next week. It appears that enough moisture
will be around for a few isolated storms each afternoon in the
Davis Mtns through about midweek before drier air invades from the
east. Have also kept isolated PoPs for Saturday afternoon across
SE NM as a weak upper disturbance moves south over the area.
Otherwise, expect dry and hot conditions next week as the upper
high stays in control of our weather.





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