Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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051
FXUS64 KMAF 121629
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1022 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014

.UPDATE...

Have updated to allow part of the Fog Advisory to expire and extend
part of the advisory until 18z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that the fog has
dissipated across most of the area but remains across parts of
southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans Pecos.  Due to these latest
observations, the Fog Advisory is being extended until 18z for parts
of southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans Pecos but being allowed
to expire elsewhere.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Similar to yesterday, persistent low level moisture is once again
resulting in another round of fog this morning. Several areas with
visibilities at or below 1/4 mile so the Dense Fog Advisory will
remain in affect for much of the CWA through 15Z although
visibilities may improve before then. Upper ridging will
persist today and tomorrow with temperatures expected to be well
above normal. Forecasting highs today to be about 5-10 degrees
warmer than yesterday, with cloud cover expected to clear somewhat.
Rain chances will remain nil today and most of tomorrow however
continued low level moisture will remain in place, resulting in a
repeat of the past several nights with patchy fog across portions of
the region.

Meanwhile, an eastward moving ua trough will enter the western ConUS
today, swing through the Rockies Saturday and enter NM Saturday
night. Still looks as though the best upper forcing in our area will
be across the northern half of the area so will keep best chances
for showers and thunderstorms confined mainly to SE NM and
northern Permian Basin Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
Thunderstorm chances then shift to across eastern zones late
Sunday morning with the arrival of an associated pacific front
moving east through the region. Expect gusty west winds and
somewhat cooler temperatures behind the front. Gusts are expected
to quickly subside overnight Sunday. Portions of SE NM and the
Davis Mtns will finally see low temps near or below freezing early
Monday morning. Cooler air will continue to filter southward
Monday as a surface ridge settles into the region, holding high
temps slightly below normal through mid week. Tuesday morning
looks to be the coolest, before return flow brings low level
moisture back to the region.

The next shot for rain could be sometime mid-late week with the
potential of another westward moving Pacific ua trough. Not sure
models will remain consistent with the current timing/track/strength
of this feature so will only carry slight chance PoPs for portions
of the region Wednesday night/Thursday until confidence increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  49  69  49  /   0   0  10  40
BIG SPRING TX              68  54  70  55  /  10   0  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                70  42  71  42  /   0   0   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  70  53  71  53  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  50  74  48  /   0   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  47  65  39  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   67  44  68  44  /   0   0  10  40
MARFA TX                   69  40  69  38  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  52  71  52  /   0   0  10  30
ODESSA TX                  69  52  70  50  /   0   0  10  30
WINK TX                    71  46  74  45  /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99/99

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