Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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823
FXUS64 KMAF 180529
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1129 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
VFR conditions will continue into Sunday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of Saturday 2:30 PM CST...one of the more prettier
days we have seen in quite a while across the CWA with dry weather
and temps into the 60s. A "cold front" (more of a wind shift)
moved across the Permian Basin this morning and is moving thru
the Trans Pecos this aftn.

After a cool night tonight...above normal temps thru Monday is in
store for West Texas/Southeast New Mexico with a dry WNW flow
aloft. At the surface lee side troffing will continue the SW
downslope winds leading to temps in the 60s to around 70 Sunday
and widespread lower to mid 70s on Monday. Winds could be breezy
at times...but will remain well below Advisory criteria.

A shortwave dropping south out of the Northern Plains will drive a
dry cold front across the CWA on Tuesday. Temps will cool to near
normal...mainly in the upper 50s in the north to near 70 in the
Rio Grande Valley.

A shortwave moving through Northern CA on Tue will cutoff from the
main flow over AZ and NM. This system will bring a return of
precipitation to the CWA starting Wednesday and continuing possibly
thru the end of the week. Medium range models are not in agreement
on the duration...amount...nor p-type for this system. It looks
like this upper system will tap into moisture from the
Pacific...and could drag down some colder air. As of now it looks
like the precip will mainly be a cold rain...but there could be
some snow mixing in Wed night/Thur morning per ECMWF forecast
soundings. With model disagreement this will be a fluid forecast
as model solutions are bound to change in the next several
days...and will bear watching.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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