Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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999
FXUS64 KMAF 302335
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Expect thunderstorms to stay south of the terminals this evening
before dissipating after sunset. VFR conditions will prevail
everywhere through Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the going forecast, as persistence rules.  WV
imagery shows the col over Texas splitting the upper ridge over the
southern CONUS remains this afternoon, but appears weaker than 24
hours ago.  Models continue this trend over the next few days,
strengthening the ridge and centering it over the Gulf Coast by
Monday afternoon.  This will favor a gradual increase in temps
through at least midweek, before temps drop off slightly as the
ridge centers over the SE CONUS.  Temps should remain above-normal
into the extended, with KMAF on day 27 of its 38-day climatological
maximum. For whatever reason, the NAM/MET has been running too cool
on temps as of late, and the warmer GFS/MAV numbers are preferred.

Rain chances remain low, and confined mainly to the higher terrain.
Models bring a theta-e trough through West Texas later in the week,
but this stays mainly over the lower terrain, so the wrn mountains
will still be in play. Area radars show convection currently trying
to develop over the SW zones, but struggling.  With the ridge
remaining in place, this looks to play out each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  98  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       72  97  73  99 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                         74  98  72 101 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  71  97  71  99 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 67  90  68  91 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          70  93  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          59  88  62  89 /  10  10  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         76  95  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           74  97  77  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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