Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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553
FXUS64 KMAF 272320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few isolated storms are ongoing this evening, though probability
for impact at any terminal is too low to include mention. Thus,
will continue to monitor and amend if needed this evening. A
westward-moving outflow boundary will affect MAF within the first
hour of the forecast period, with winds backing to the east and
gusts up to around 18kt possible. Southeasterly winds are expected
to return by 01Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail, with southeast winds generally 12kt or less areawide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge remains over the SE US with a broad trough extending
from the Dakotas down across Utah.  This trough will pinch off
leaving a cut off low over the 4 Corners region.  This low is
expected to be pulled NE around the top of the ridge.  Also have an
upper low along the TX coast hang around for a few days... will have
to see if affects our wx or not.

As August winds down the unseasonably cool temperatures continue.
Expect near persistence tonight with low temps as little change in
the pattern.  Should be about the same Sunday as today.  Models
continue to show a weak frontal boundary/wind shift sagging down
into the area early Monday with the wind becoming mainly easterly
through Tuesday.  Monday is looking cloudy and with the easterly
wind should be cooler.  Temps slowly warm to near normal by late in
the week.

So far today there has been little in the way of precipitation but
as of 18z have stated getting a few radar echos from near Queen...
to Kent... to Alpine... to near Fort Stockton.  With plentiful
moisture and daytime have enhanced CU field over much of the Permian
Basin... expanded slight chance across the east tonight but have
highest pops over the higher elevations.  Do have a number of old
outflow boundaries from yesterday that could become a focus for storm
development.  ETA qpf does brings precip down across the Northern
Permian Basin this evening.  QPF hitting Eddy Co hard Sunday
night... locally heavy rain possible... have increased pops to 50
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  89  69  87 /  20  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       65  88  66  83 /  30  40  50  50
Dryden                         71  92  72  89 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  89  67  86 /  30  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  62  74 /  30  40  40  50
Hobbs                          65  85  64  82 /  30  30  40  50
Marfa                          59  81  60  78 /  30  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  68  87 /  20  30  30  40
Odessa                         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  30  40
Wink                           68  90  68  88 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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