Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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588
FXUS64 KMAF 161715
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Will keep the 18Z TAFs short and simple due to uncertainties in
coverage and location in expected showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Daytime heating will cause scattered storms to develop
but with no surface feature to focus on, their development will be
random and will thus handle with as needed amendments as storms
approach a particular site. MVFR CIG/VIS and gusty winds can be
expected in and around any storms but generally VFR conditions and
light southeast winds will prevail the next 24 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing most of the morning
across SE NM and the Guadalupe Mountains likely due to a weak wave
moving south across the TX PH. This activity may hold on for a few
more hours before dissipating so have kept higher PoPs over these
areas into this morning. Nonetheless, heavy rain has likely
created flash flooding in and around Guadalupe Mountains NP and
along the Black River.

An anomalously strong upper trough over the eastern Great Lakes
combined with a West Coast ridge have placed our region in weak
northwesterly mid level flow. Similar to yesterday, scattered
showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon. Without a
strong wave nearby, the most favored locations will again be the
higher terrain in and around the Davis Mountains and across SE NM.
Elsewhere, any left over outflow boundaries will need to be
monitored as strong sfc heating will create a moderately unstable
environment for convection to form in. Deep layer shear will remain
weak through this evening so expect storms to be mostly slow
movers producing heavy rain. High temperatures will be greatly
affected by how much cloud cover hangs around into the afternoon.
This time of year a little sunshine can go a long way so even with
a few peaks of sun temperatures should make it to near seasonal
values.

Meanwhile, another shortwave will slide down the front range of the
Rockies tonight and move across the S. Plains on Thursday. This will
bring a cold front into the area Thursday along with a decent
chance of rain. Models continue to suggest widespread thunderstorm
development across the TX PH this afternoon with possible upscale
growth into one or more MCS`s by evening. This activity will likely
slide southeast into the Red River Valley by Thursday morning with
an outflow boundary/cold front extending west across the TX S.
Plains or Permian Basin. It is yet to be known how far south this
front will push, but more showers and thunderstorms are expected to
form along this boundary Thursday afternoon. Heavy rain will be the
main threat with rich low level moisture already in place and PWATS
>1.5". High temperatures Thursday afternoon will depend on how far
south and west the front makes it. 80`s can be expected north of the
boundary with 90`s and 100`s ahead of it. Temperatures fall 5-10
degrees below seasonal norms Friday as the front gets a better
push south. This will keep most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor.

Enjoy the brief relief from the heat as the upper ridge to our west
strengthens this weekend and centers itself overhead. Afternoon
highs will reach well into the 90`s and 100`s beginning Saturday and
lasting into much of next week. Mid level temps warm as subsidence
increases so expect rain chances to be confined mainly to the
Davis Mountains remaining isolated at best.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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