Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 032257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
557 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015


See 00z aviation discussion below.



Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact western portions
of the area through the period. CNM has the highest chances of
experiencing storms but HOB, INK, and PEQ will also likely see
some storms. VFR conditions should persist outside of the
thunderstorms. Winds are expected to be elevated with some gusts
out of the east through the early portions of the night. Winds
will weaken then become elevated out of mostly the southeast
Sunday afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 158 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/

Water vapor imagery depicts a well defined shrtwv trof INVOF AZ/NM
border with a mid level trof axis sw of srn Baja and remnants of
Marty s of Baja`s srn tip. In the sw flow aloft there is a broad
moist axis/subtropical connection that is across the CWFA,
especially wrn half. Minor shrtwv trof moving thru the flow today
and tonight will result in scattered SHRA/TSRA. High resolution
RAP13/HRRR suggest there will precip focused from MRF Plateau to
around Pecos and from around GDP Mtns thru nrn Lea Co into the late
evening hrs tonight. A few strong storms are also possible across
the far w into the evening where 7h-5h LR`s around 7c/km and 0-6km
bulk shear of 30kts are noted. Yesterday part of the challenge was
identifying shrtwv trof/s moving thru the flow and is today as well.
However there does look to be some consensus that a stronger shrtwv
trof will move from nrn Mexico into the Trans Pecos Sunday, merging
with the weakening shrtwv trof from AZ/NM. As such there is expected
to be an uptick in SHRA/TSRA Sunday/Sunday night across the w. PoPs
overnight won`t need too much adjusting, however we will increase
PoPs Sunday/Sunday night, especially across the far wrn CWFA, where
local heavy rain/flooding are possible. Monday/Tuesday will be
relatively down days for precip, scattered -SHRA Monday AM and an
isold TSRA Tuesday in the mtns. Meanwhile a mid/upper low with an
80-90kt 3h jet will move into AZ/NM Wed. By later Wednesday and
into Thursday jet dynamics will come into play, the general pattern
looks to be favorable for fairly widespread rain. Although PW`s
don`t look to be over zealous there is potential for rain to persist
Thursday, at least for the ern half/third of CWFA, and flooding
concerns may gradually increase into Thursday in the e. Precip
chances may even persist into Fri either assocd with wrap around
(GFS low e) or in deformation zone (ECMWF low sw). Superblend has
been generating high PoPs in this time and generally won`t make
any changes. Temperatures will mostly remain well below normal.





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