Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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441
FXUS64 KMAF 252346
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
646 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A
cold front is currently moving south through eastern New Mexico
and the Texas Panhandle, expected to reach KHOB and KCNM by
02-03Z, KMAF and KINK by around 04Z, KPEQ by 05Z, and finally KFST
by 06Z. Winds will shift to the north and increase, with gusts
over 30kt possible. The gusts will gradually diminish through
Thursday morning, though breezy conditions could continue into the
afternoon, particularly for KMAF and KFST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front currently across the Texas Panhandle will
quickly plunge south overnight and be well south of the region
in Mexico by sunrise Thursday morning. Consensus progged surface
pressure gradient suggest that the stronger mav guidance winds
look more reasonable tonight. Will issue a Wind Advisory for
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas tonight except the
Presidio Valley. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Pass of west Texas tonight through mid Thursday morning
and increase wind speeds by 10 mph. In addition Low level
convergence along the advancing front with some forcing from the
upper trough could spark some showers and thunderstorms across the
extreme eastern Permian Basin in the deeper moisture. Due to the
expected winds will include areas of blowing dust across all of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool Thursday
high temperatures will climb to much above normal values again by
Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope flow
and mostly clear skies expected.

A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected at this time
next Monday night and Tuesday. Near to above normal temperatures
are expected early next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm this afternoon as temperatures have climbed into the 80s.
This has combined with dry conditions over some parts of the area to
produce rh values below 15 percent.  West winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range have produced near critical conditions across SE NM... the
Trans Pecos... and Western Permian Basin.  A check of area RAWS
sites show 20ft winds near but below 20 mph range but localized Red
Flag conditions are possible.  A Fire Danger Statement remains in
effect for these areas.  Wind speeds should begin to decrease
by late afternoon.  A strong cold front will blow through the region
tonight with a gusty north wind with 20ft winds exceeded 20 mph but
rh values will be increasing as moisture increases and temperatures
fall.  Cooler temperatures and higher rh expected tomorrow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Terrell.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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