Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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636
FXUS64 KMAF 061105
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
505 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Cold front currently crossing the I-20 corridor will slow and
settle along the Pecos River this afternoon. Gusty northerly winds
this morning will weaken and veer to the east later this
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, as an upper-lvl trough moves thru the MS Valley.  At the
sfc, a cold front is moving thru the area, w/fropa thru KMAF by 10Z.
This front will take temps well blo normal this afternoon, but a
quick rebound to above-normal is anticipated Wednesday as winds veer
around to return flow, and then take on a westerly component during
the afternoon for a little downslope warming action.  Unfortunately,
this will be short-lived, as a much stronger arctic front plows into
the region, w/fropa at KMAF around 04Z Thu, bringing the coldest
temps this fall to the region.  Biggest concerns this forecast will
be possible precipitation developing along the I-10 corridor as
models bring in a mid-lvl trough from the west.  Combined w/weak
isentropic upglide, a mix of precip could develop along and behind
the front.  This looks to be a short event, but may make travel
hazardous on I-10 late Wednesday night/Thursday.  Precip type is,
natch, the main challenge.  The NAM suggests the column will not be
saturated deep enough for SN, and calls for a FZRA scenario, whereas
the GFS is much more moist, favoring SN, especially in the east.
Staying pessimistic, we`ve opted for FZRA in the west, and FZRA or
SN in the east, mainly late Wed night into Thu morning, w/FZRA
continuing in the mtns Thu afternoon.  QPFs should remain light, but
we`ll re-issue an SPS highliting these concerns.  Frontal gap
winds will be on the rise at KGDP Wed night, but there are some
model disagreements as to how strong.  for now, we`ll just mention
this in the HWO.

Temps Thursday should hover around freezing most locations, and
then slowly warm to normal by Saturday afternoon under NW flow
aloft.A dry pattern then ensues under zonal flow aloft into the
extended, w/temps remaining above-normal thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  38  61  28 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       55  37  61  30 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         63  41  65  38 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  58  44  66  31 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 53  41  53  27 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          45  33  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  34  61  30 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           49  38  64  29 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         51  39  64  29 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           53  37  66  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29

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